CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1541 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:57 am

HWRF has a nasty Molokai landfall:
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1542 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:58 am

The usual block of shear near the Hawaiian Islands have come to rescue for Hawaii otherwise Lane would definitely would had stayed as a major hurricane over the next couple of days. IMO.

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1543 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:11 am

Too bad we are going to loose the eye on radar later on this morning, for just a few hours.

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1544 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:41 am

Wondering if the "Naked swirl" effect will happen later, whereby the center heads the general direction of the Euro, while all the convection hangs closer to the GFS. (Or vice versa)
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1545 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:54 am

BobHarlem wrote:Wondering if the "Naked swirl" effect will happen later, whereby the center heads the general direction of the Euro, while all the convection hangs closer to the GFS. (Or vice versa)


That's my thinking as well. The heavy rain and what's left of the MLC will move more like the GFS while the LLC follows the euro. The LLC might also reform, much like how the GFS ends up with a better overall track in heavily sheared Gulf systems. It cant be stated enough though, RAIN is the story here, not wind. IMO.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1546 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:58 am

BobHarlem wrote:Wondering if the "Naked swirl" effect will happen later, whereby the center heads the general direction of the Euro, while all the convection hangs closer to the GFS. (Or vice versa)



Its getting late, even once the core gets disrupted by shear we are going to see some nasty squall lines expanding north into the islands. This is a rare track that preserves more of the storms intensity than we usually see.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1547 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:35 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2018 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 16:32:58 N Lon : 157:01:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.1mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -27.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.8 degrees

****************************************************
Ummmmmm, I miss Recon :(
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1548 Postby Twisted-core » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:38 am

Image

All the moisture is being transported north flowing towards the jet.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1549 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:46 am

Lane is starting to look a little ragged from shear but is still maintaining intense convection around the center for the time being.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... lor=yellow
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1550 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:21 am

@EricBlake12
Over a foot of rain has been reported in Hilo, Hawaii during the past 24 hours as #Lane moves southwest of the Big Island. This is a serious flood situation with much more rain to come #hiwx https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=PHTO


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1032629772822761472


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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1551 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:23 am

cycloneye wrote:@EricBlake12
Over a foot of rain has been reported in Hilo, Hawaii during the past 24 hours as #Lane moves southwest of the Big Island. This is a serious flood situation with much more rain to come #hiwx https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=PHTO


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1032629772822761472



Stream/River gauges on the Big Island already getting high https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... fresh=true

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1032629342029967361


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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1552 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:26 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:Lane is starting to look a little ragged from shear but is still maintaining intense convection around the center for the time being.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... lor=yellow



EWRC or shear? I'm not convinced on either yet. (maybe both)

edit: last frame or two make it look like the eye is clearing out again.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1553 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:51 am

BobHarlem wrote:

EWRC or shear? I'm not convinced on either yet. (maybe both)

edit: last frame or two make it look like the eye is clearing out again.


CDO has also pulsed back to more symmetrical after looking a bit flattened on the SW side. So far Lane has laughed in the face of shear and that's not good news for Hawaii if it continues to do so.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1554 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:54 am

WTPA32 PHFO 231445
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...LANE CREEPING CLOSER TO HAWAII...
...TORRENTIAL RAIN SOAKING THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 157.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 157.4 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and little change in forward speed is expected
today. A turn toward the north is anticipated tonight and Friday, as
Lane's forward motion slows. A turn toward the west is expected on
Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will move very close to or over
the portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days. Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws
closer to the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). NOAA buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the
Big Island recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h)
and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning later this morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin over portions of Maui County later today,
with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane will
impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant
and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with
localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.
Over 12 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the Big
Island.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1555 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:55 am

BobHarlem wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:Lane is starting to look a little ragged from shear but is still maintaining intense convection around the center for the time being.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... lor=yellow



EWRC or shear? I'm not convinced on either yet. (maybe both)

edit: last frame or two make it look like the eye is clearing out again.



I'm far from an expert but I would guess shear. Lane's western side keeps getting flattened out but then Lane fights back with a convective burst lol.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1556 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:59 am

Image

Hanging in there
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1557 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:00 am

12z early models, concensus TVCN to the right of the official forecast track because of the HWRF and GFS, but even these two have been trending to the left. A direct hit to Hawaii is looking less and less likely, IMO.

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1558 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:07 am

6.7 again Raw T :eek:
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1559 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:08 am

@RyanMaue
Hurricane Lane continues up the rightside of the 00z EPS envelope where the stronger storm members coexist. Black line is the satellite fix history.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032644056944463873


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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1560 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:09 am

cjrciadt wrote:6.7 again Raw T :eek:


It keeps defying the shear! :double:
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