CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Siker]

[Yellow Evan]

Becoming more organized. Eye may be warming again.

[tolakram]

I don’t know how to attach a photo here but I was wondering if you can tell me if we should worry about what looks like another system forming next to Lane, did she create a baby? People are talking about it on Instagram. Mahalo!

Those types of phantoms are fairly common when hurricanes get close to land. I don't clearly understand it but it may be interactions with the mountains.

[NotoSans]

I don’t know how to attach a photo here but I was wondering if you can tell me if we should worry about what looks like another system forming next to Lane, did she create a baby? People are talking about it on Instagram. Mahalo!

Those types of phantoms are fairly common when hurricanes get close to land. I don't clearly understand it but it may be interactions with the mountains.

It is very often for a low to form on the leeward side when a tropical cyclone interacts with mountainous terrains, e.g. when a typhoon makes landfall over Luzon and Taiwan over the Western North Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2018 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 16:57:10 N Lon : 157:25:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 937.1mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[cjrciadt]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2018 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 16:57:10 N Lon : 157:25:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 937.1mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Richter Scale the ADT has been today!!!

[Yellow Evan]

ADT incorrectly goes nuts with the pinhole eye scene.

[tolakram]

It appears to me that Lane's current position is already well east of the 0Z Euro's forecast. As the storm tilts with shear it may be difficult to discern the exact heading but it sure does look like it's moving more north than west.

First visible (live loop)

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-159&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

[FLpanhandle91]

Overall outflow seems to be improving on the west side in the latest IR frames.

[Bocadude85]

12 HWRF shifts east and has a landfall over Maui once again.

[SunnyThoughts]

NWSHonolulu
✔
@NWSHonolulu


Parts of Big Island have measured 7-12" rain in past 12 hours. County officials report multiple landslides on Hwy 19 on Big Island making the road hazardous for travel.

[NotoSans]

Typical scenario in which strong vertical wind shear is offset by the robust poleward outflow enhanced by the upper-level trough, hence allowing the system to maintain its intensity. Latest EIR frames yield a solid 6.0 DT/FT, suggesting that LANE is still a category 4.

[Alyono]

the shear appears to have become more divergent during the past couple of hours. That should allow this to maintain low end cat 4 for a few more hours

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF has a full blown major into Maui

[tolakram]

The 12Z GFS wind shear forecast. Looks to keep the worst fo the shear NW of the storm as it slowly shifts from SW to West.

[Mauistorms]

12z HWRF has a full blown major into Maui

Getting nervous now!

[tolakram]

12Z Euro init. IMO this is the run to watch.



You can also view the run at weather.us: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018082312/hawaii/sea-level-pressure/20180823-1200z.html

[BYG Jacob]

What is so hard about initializing correctly?

[Alyono]

994mb

TRASH CAN

[tolakram]

994mb

TRASH CAN

It's a resolution issue with TT maps I think. To some extend anyway.