CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[BYG Jacob]

Euro also has Lane deepening before landfall.

Not sure if it makes landfall but is very close to. Starts moving west at hour 72 due to decoupling.

Right now the final track is dependent on Lane. Is it going to weaken or not?

Not yet.

[tolakram]

12Z Wind Speed

[BobHarlem]

Well that Euro shift will make the next Hurricane Center discussion very interesting.

[tolakram]

And the most dangerous aspect, rainfall totals.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032681374052827136




17inches of rain without landfall? Wtf.

[Kingarabian]

Based on the microwave, it actually looks like it has strengthened

[BYG Jacob]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032681374052827136




17inches of rain without landfall? Wtf.

Lane has a massive northern outflow channel.

[BYG Jacob]

Based on the microwave, it actually looks like it has strengthened

Divergent shear and warm water is a bad combo.

[SunnyThoughts]

Watching JIm Cantore on TWC. They are talking about buoy 51002 and the gusts are over 90 mph and waves at 30 ft, closest buoy to the center of storm. As well as the rain, totals of over 17 inches now on some parts of the islands, with much more to come.

[StormSkeptic]

That buoy just to the west of the storm is a real trooper, hanging in there and still reporting. As of 7:50 am HST it was reporting winds of about 85 mph (after adjusting for a 10 min average vs. 1 min average wind speed and to a standard height of 10 meters), gusts to 105 and a pressure of about 980mb. So clearly a still powerful storm - as maybe just into the eyewall on the weaker side of the storm.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325

[storminabox]

Glad to see that models are finally agreeing. Looks like a big win for the GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

T6.0 clear cut.

[mcheer23]

Thinking about taking a flight from Honolulu to Maui later this afternoon ...hmm...

[Yellow Evan]

23/1730 UTC 17.0N 157.6W T5.5/6.5 LANE -- Central Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 231811
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1808 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

A. HURRICANE LANE EP142018.

B. 23/1730Z.

C. 17.0N.

D. 157.5W.

E. GOES-W.

F. T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS.

G. VIS/IR.

H. Remarks: EYE PATTERN WITH WH SURROUNDING SHADE OVER .5 DEGREES WIDE YIELDS AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.0. BLACK EYE WITH WHITE SURROUNDING RING GIVES AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF -1.0. DATA T-NUMBER IS 5.0. MODEL EXPECTED T-NUMBER AND PATTERN T-NUMBER AGREE. Final T-NUMBER HELD AT 6.0 DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS 23/1217Z 16.5N 157.1W AMSR 23/1330Z 16.6N 157.3W SSMI 23/1357Z 16.7N 157.3W SSMIS 23/1601Z 16.8N 157.3W SSMIS 23/1621 16.7N 157.3W GPM.

$$
DONALDSON

No..... FT is T5.0 here CI is T6.0.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 231755

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 23/1731Z

C. 17.04N

D. 157.48W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

This isn't surrounded by B.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF shifted into Maui, HOMN shifted closer to Lanai and oahu.

[TheAustinMan]

UW-CIMSS ADT is actually yielding raw values of T6.7/132kt. Assuming, of course, that the cloud system center is colocated with the observed warm spot.

14 kB. Source: CIMSS ADT

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1032682457269723136




 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032681374052827136

[tolakram]

Keep in mind a lot of us are behind firewalls when working that block all tweets, including me. It's unfortunate but if you could copy the text it's very helpful.