CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1641 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:54 pm

18z best track remains CAT4
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1642 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:55 pm

That bout is in the western to SW eyewall. weaker side currently

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 62.2 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 93.2 kts
- Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.60 in
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 69.9 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 73.8 kts
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1643 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:58 pm

supercane4867 wrote:18z best track remains CAT4


I was nervous the CPHC would bring this down due to falling FT since 1730z had only a B eye. Glad to be proven wrong.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1644 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:59 pm

supercane4867 wrote:18z best track remains CAT4

Continues to weaken slower than anticipated.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1645 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:01 pm

While affects on the hurricane will be felt statewide, it looks like the global and dynamic models are closing in on a landfall point between east Oahu - Molokai - Maui.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1646 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:07 pm

And then the latest Euro threw a curved ball at me :eek:
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1647 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:12 pm

Here is the exact location of the Bouy. the southern eyewall will be passing over the bouy in the next hour or so..

17.037 N 157.696 W

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1648 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:13 pm

NDG wrote:And then the latest Euro threw a curved ball at me :eek:

Yeah. Using trends on this one was super important.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1649 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:15 pm

I've watched many a tropical cyclone defy forecasters' expectations for track and/or intensity, but don't think I've ever seen one remain so much stronger than the advisories for a given lead time, for so long, as Lane. Hawaii is in trouble even if the center doesn't technically cross the coast of any islands as a major.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1650 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:15 pm

It is surely at least maintaining its current strength.

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1651 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:18 pm

Lane clearing his eye. LOL, he doesn't give a fig about shear.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1652 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:21 pm

A few different IR views. IMO slow weakening is continuing.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-159&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=ir&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=yellow

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-159&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=ir&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=yellow

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-159&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=ir&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=yellow
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1653 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:22 pm

NDG wrote:It is surely at least maintaining its current strength.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/56y36ss.gif[img]

That eye warming and a buzzsaw look? Got to be kidding me...
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1654 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:23 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Lane clearing his eye. LOL, he doesn't give a fig about shear.



Yeah I think it's safe to say the intensity forecast has been under estimated and the shear forecast over estimated thus far lol. Not knocking anybody but it just shows that they are 2 of the toughest things to accurately predict currently.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1655 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:23 pm


Uh, those make it look like he's strengthening.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1656 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:24 pm



Great links as usual, Tolakram. But the eye is warming in each of those loops.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1657 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:24 pm

SconnieCane wrote:I've watched many a tropical cyclone defy forecasters' expectations for track and/or intensity, but don't think I've ever seen one remain so much stronger than the advisories for a given lead time, for so long, as Lane. Hawaii is in trouble even if the center doesn't technically cross the coast of any islands as a major.

The fact that most storms tend to perform below expectations when approaching Hawaii makes Lane especially interesting and unprecedented.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1658 Postby Dylan » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:25 pm

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1032710273306685440


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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1659 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:27 pm

Only 12Z model showing an intact core near landfall is the HWRF.

And that looks almost impossible IMHO.

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1660 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:28 pm

Nimbus wrote:Only 12Z model showing an intact core near landfall is the HWRF.

And that looks almost impossible IMHO.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/sOxMp82.png[img]
+

Not with the developments we're seeing right now.
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