CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[SootyTern]

I have a close friend on Maui so I am monitoring Lane especially closely. 'Next to a dry streambed' is not what I wanted to hear when I asked him some specifics about his house situation.

[SunnyThoughts]

I was hoping that by now, Lane would be a sheared 85mph cane headed downward to a tropical storm before getting any closer to the islands. Guess he has other ideas. Hopefully tonight that will happen.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye warming.

[gatorcane]

Lane does not appear to be weakening

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[galaxy401]

I'm noticing that there is a big ball of heavy convection east of Lane. Is that heading to Hawaii?

Edit: ....And it's an invest now!

[BYG Jacob]

I'm noticing that there is a big ball of heavy convection east of Lane. Is that heading to Hawaii?

Been wondering what that is myself for a while now.


EDIT: An invest!? lol

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1032712236651958272






A buoy in the western eyewall of Hurricane #Lane recently measured wind gusts as high as 107 mph, while bobbing up and down between 30-foot waves.
-Levi Cowan

[Aric Dunn]

the bouy pressure is down to 959 mb with 44kts wind.

actual pressure is still probably in the low to mid 940's ..

[supercane4867]

I'm noticing that there is a big ball of heavy convection east of Lane. Is that heading to Hawaii?

Yes, the circulation of Lane is drawing large amounts of moisture from the tropics. Overall rainfall on Big Island may exceed 40 inches as a result.

[Kingarabian]

I'm noticing that there is a big ball of heavy convection east of Lane. Is that heading to Hawaii?

We have Invest 95C
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119775

[Fountainguy97]

Eye warming.

This is multiple hours old

[NDG]

With the latest Euro shifting to the right, they will have no option but to shift the forecast track to the right closer or over the TVCN consensus model.

[NotoSans]

the bouy pressure is down to 959 mb with 44kts wind.

actual pressure is still probably in the low to mid 940's ..

CPHC's intensity estimate actually looks quite accurate to me right now.

[SunnyThoughts]

Is it even possible for that invest to develop considering how close in proximity it is to Lane?

[Yellow Evan]

CDO looking a little more ragged.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032714569473581056




Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
✔
@RyanMaue

Updated ECMWF ensemble for 12z is concentrated slightly east of previous cluster ... #HurricaneLane is expected to weaken as it heads north -- although currently little sign of that right now.

[NDG]

I don't think this buoy will get over the SE eyewall of Lane, the pressure has not been falling much during the past few minutes, near 960mb, and the wind is shifting from the NNW.

Conditions at 51002 as of
(9:10 am HAST)
1910 GMT on 08/23/2018:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:


Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.34 in
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 27.2 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 29.1 kts

[NotoSans]

Data from buoy 51002 suggest that central pressure is likely near 955 mb right now (28.3in with 36.9kt gusts). Using the KZC wind-pressure relationship would yield an intensity of 110 knots, which is quite consistent with subjective Dvorak estimates.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think this buoy will get over the SE eyewall of Lane, the pressure has not been falling much during the past few minutes, near 960mb, and the wind is shifting from the NNW.

Conditions at 51002 as of
(9:10 am HAST)
1910 GMT on 08/23/2018:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:


Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.34 in
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 27.2 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 29.1 kts

the Southern/SE eyewall is coming up to in the next hour or so.

the red cross is the bouy's exact location.

since the hurricane is likely tilted the radar image is not going to exactly line up with the low level eye structure.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/kristinekotecki/status/1032704713660100608