CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Is it even possible for that invest to develop considering how close in proximity it is to Lane?

12z euro actually develops it somewhat and moving toward Maui. Not sure if it can become a TD or named storm though.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/goes-w/goes-hi-ir.html Eye sure looks to have cleared out pretty well....again

[BobHarlem]

Rainbow Falls on the Big Island a few minutes ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S7ECXu80Bk

[pgoss11]

Rainbow Falls on the Big Island a few minutes ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S7ECXu80Bk

Wow! That is insanely scary when you think how much more rain is coming their way. Sending prayers out to all affected.

[FLpanhandle91]

I believe the appearance of the eye warming is simply the result of the CDO diminishing around it. IR and Dvorak presentations continue to become weaker.

[SunnyThoughts]

Rainbow Falls on the Big Island a few minutes ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S7ECXu80Bk

That is amazing, what on earth will it be like after raining the rest of today, tonight and tomorrow in that area. Scary

[StormSkeptic]

I don't think this buoy will get over the SE eyewall of Lane, the pressure has not been falling much during the past few minutes, near 960mb, and the wind is shifting from the NNW.

Conditions at 51002 as of
(9:10 am HAST)
1910 GMT on 08/23/2018:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:


Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.34 in
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 27.2 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 29.1 kts

Pressure has bottomed out at the buoy at 28.24 in (956mb) with 2kts of wind, so we have our central pressure.

[Aric Dunn]

winds have switched to the west at the bouy. next 20 or 30 min should see what the max winds roughly are on the south side.

[CrazyC83]

If that is the central pressure (radar suggests the eye center may be just to the east), I would go with an intensity of 105 kt.

[Kingarabian]

CPHC went with 130mph winds and 949mb pressure.

Maui isn't in the cone anymore in this advisory...



I also have reservations about them thinking a hurricane will feel weak steering currents and move west and away from Oahu.

[SunnyThoughts]

Newest advisory out as per TWC still 130mph 949mb movement NW @ 7mph

[Kingarabian]

Maui and Oahu residents need to remain prepared for the worst.

The CPHC track is following the GEFS and EPS means. But the strongest members in both sets shows landfalls...

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC went with 130mph winds and 949mb pressure.

Maui isn't in the cone anymore in this advisory...

https://i.imgur.com/pZByGhg.png

I also have reservations about them thinking a hurricane will feel weak steering currents and move west and away from Oahu.

IMO CPHC seems lost. The trends have been in the opposite way, and at this point unless it decouples soon it will likely move through the island group.

[Ubuntwo]

I do not understand the reasoning behind the cone. The UKMet, EC, and GFS all show close passes to Maui, but the CPHC's path shows the storm staying relatively far offshore for whatever reason.

[SunnyThoughts]

I do not understand the reasoning behind the cone. The UKMet, EC, and GFS all show close passes to Maui, but the CPHC's path shows the storm staying relatively far offshore for whatever reason.

Dr. Knabb on TWC just pretty much said the same thing. He said just because those areas are NOT inside the cone, not to rule out a direct impact of the storm.

[1900hurricane]

I don't think this buoy will get over the SE eyewall of Lane, the pressure has not been falling much during the past few minutes, near 960mb, and the wind is shifting from the NNW.

Conditions at 51002 as of
(9:10 am HAST)
1910 GMT on 08/23/2018:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:


Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.34 in
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 27.2 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 29.1 kts

Pressure has bottomed out at the buoy at 28.24 in (956mb) with 2kts of wind, so we have our central pressure.

Basically spot on with NotoSans's estimate on the previous page. I get about 105 kt with that pressure when using KZC.

[Kingarabian]

The CPHC also blends in the GFS's N/NE track as well. If they follow that scenario, then none of the models that show this setup have this NOT hitting one of the islands.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA42 PHFO 232109
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning,
even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed
by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite
imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a
relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four
centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and
SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for
this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative.

This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
in better agreement with the ECMWF.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated
terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan tweeted this earlier.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1032630903690985473

[Alyono]

I'm seeing some 35 kt upper winds over Lane now