CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

I'm seeing some 35 kt upper winds over Lane now

I hope they get the job done. Not that it was entirely possible, but I and many others who took the time prepped for a Cat.1 at most... Not an Iniki.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032738216636571650





Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
‏Verified account @RyanMaue
8m8 minutes ago

#HurricaneLane has made it to 157.5 west ... the satellite fixes showing a bit of a stepping sequence (black line) within the EPS ensemble members. The official forecast maintains an almost due North course for next 36-hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar looks like it is moving Due north the last hour or so..

[NDG]

I don't think this buoy will get over the SE eyewall of Lane, the pressure has not been falling much during the past few minutes, near 960mb, and the wind is shifting from the NNW.

Conditions at 51002 as of
(9:10 am HAST)
1910 GMT on 08/23/2018:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:


Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.34 in
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 27.2 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 29.1 kts

Pressure has bottomed out at the buoy at 28.24 in (956mb) with 2kts of wind, so we have our central pressure.

I see that, basically the eye went over the buoy, there's no way its pressure is as low as the latest advisory has it. I would say that its pressure is now up to 955mb.

Code: Select all

08   23   10:10 am   W   1.9   5.8   -   -   -   -   28.27   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   10:00 am   WNW   3.9   5.8   -   -   -   -   28.26   -0.87   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   9:50 am   WNW   1.9   5.8   25.6   10   8.2   NNE   28.25   -   -

[Alyono]

this has turned more to the left during the past few hours

[Kingarabian]

I see increased cirrus in the southern quads from the past few horus, but the CDO structure continues to stay put.

[Yellow Evan]

Okay this is back to weakening for sure at least for now.

[Aric Dunn]

So looking at the models and the 850mb vorticity. I may have found the culprit and a reason to pay more attention to the models with this feature ( actually many others). especially the models that have this feature being stronger.

circled is a fairly large vortex that the models have shown developing. the models show many of these small to moderate sized vorts/circ that develop and rotate around to the north of Lane. This effectively lowers the pressure to the NE of Lane along with the lee side troughing should pull Lane NNE to NE. The Euro finally this run shows this feature being stronger than the 00z run and thus the track shift quite a good bit east.

loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Here is the HWRF showing a string of these vorts developing over time. this same thing happens with the GFS and other models.



the 00z Euro does not have these features being well pronounced which allows Lane to move more NW.

12Z Euro today. notice how much larger ( which is what we are currently seeing with that vort feature) compared to the 00z. and the Euro in the 00z does not develop that string of vorts like the other models.

12z

00z


So the fact that this Feature is currently there and it is not a phantom of the models make the Dynamical models and the GFS and the 12z Euro more believable.
only time will tell if the lower pressure to the NE of Lane will be enough to bring the core onshore somewhere or not but it is a good possibility.


Also appears on radar to still be heading about due north.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS looks completely due north through 18 hours:

[Alyono]

GFS back to Big Island?

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS looks like a Maui landfall.

[tolakram]

That discussion makes me think CPHC just gave up on figuring out exact track and decides to blindly follow EPS mean

Please be careful with these kinds of statements. The CPHC has help from the NHC to make these forecasts, they are not in this alone and they are certainly not giving up.

[Kingarabian]

GFS back to Big Island?

HWRF and HMON will be interesting. Wonder if HMON will show a stronger vort.

[tolakram]

Mean Absolute error plot



from: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ep142018/

[hurricaneCW]

I'm not sure why everyones so adamant about whether this makes landfall or not, that really doesn't matter.

The real damage is and will always be the extreme rainfall totals. Even if it were to make LF the storm would be a low end Cat 1 at best as it's already starting to weaken.

[1900hurricane]

UW-CIMSS ADT is actually yielding raw values of T6.7/132kt. Assuming, of course, that the cloud system center is colocated with the observed warm spot.

14 kB. Source: CIMSS ADT

I have to ask, how did you end up with that awesome graphic? Is that something you plotted yourself?

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure why everyones so adamant about whether this makes landfall or not, that really doesn't matter.

The real damage is and will always be the extreme rainfall totals. Even if it were to make LF the storm would be a low end Cat 1 at best as it's already starting to weaken.

Cat.1 winds is bad for a state that historically does NOT get hurricanes.

[aperson]

From what I could gather, building code in Hawaii prior to special wind zone reclassification in the early 2000s was for 80mph sustained winds. A cat 1 vs cat 2 wind field would have significant impacts for older construction in this case. (see: http://martinchock.com/_library/documen ... isions.pdf)

[Kingarabian]

From what I could gather, building code in Hawaii prior to special wind zone reclassification in the early 2000s was for 80mph sustained winds. A cat 1 vs cat 2 wind field would have significant impacts for older construction in this case. (see: http://martinchock.com/_library/documen ... isions.pdf)

I agree with that completely.