CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[SunnyThoughts]

Highest rainfall totals so far: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/RRAHFO almost 20 inches
HKUH1 : Hakalau : 3.24 / 5.59 / 9.72 / 15.69
PPWH1 : Papaikou Well (5070) : M / M / M / M
SDQH1 : Saddle Quarry (USGS) : 2.12 / 4.15 / 9.62 / 16.02
PIIH1 : Piihonua (5020) : M / M / M / M
WKAH1 : Waiakea Uka (5030) : M / M / M / M
WEXH1 : Waiakea Experiment Stn : 0.64 / 3.38 / 7.77 / 19.23
HTO : Hilo Airport : 0.48 / 2.43 / 7.26 / 14.91

[Alyono]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

[Kingarabian]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

Yup big change from the 12z.

[Mauistorms]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

Yup big change from the 12z.

What is the minimum strength of wind if it still has a core? Sorry for the amateur question but the "plows into Maui" part got me wonderin..

[Aric Dunn]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

Yup big change from the 12z.

looking more likely the core will stay intact at least somewhat. will be an interesting 24 hours.

[Kingarabian]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

Yup big change from the 12z.

What is the minimum strength of wind if it still has a core? Sorry for the amateur question but the "plows into Maui" part got me wonderin..

979mb, 75mph winds. But 979mb would support stronger winds that.

[johngaltfla]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

IF, big IF, that verifies, the storm surge would be unholy as it still would be building up for miles before slamming into the coast.

[Kingarabian]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

Yup big change from the 12z.

looking more likely the core will stay intact at least somewhat. will be an interesting 24 hours.

It's not looking good for Maui based on the GFS's guidance. What's the chances for an Oahu/Molokai hit at this time?

[Alyono]

HWRF on the other hand is not keeping the core in tact. Change from the past few runs

[Alyono]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

IF, big IF, that verifies, the storm surge would be unholy as it still would be building up for miles before slamming into the coast.

very little tidal surge. All waves

[supercane4867]

So we have a model consensus now. The final target is on Maui

[tolakram]

Here is the intensity error for Lane.



Euro has been the worst, hands down. Official the best, followed by HWRF and HMON (if I read the charts correctly).

[Aric Dunn]

it almost looks like that vort is trying to develop lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[johngaltfla]

it almost looks like that vort is trying to develop lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

x1000

[johngaltfla]

HMON keeps core intact until it plows over Maui

IF, big IF, that verifies, the storm surge would be unholy as it still would be building up for miles before slamming into the coast.

very little tidal surge. All waves

Still a major problem. My relatives have a home on the beach and the back patio is just about 1 foot above sea level. That won't end well.

[SunnyThoughts]

it almost looks like that vort is trying to develop lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

If it does develop, or even if it stays as it is now...might it tug Lane a little to the East at some point? Or at least keep it headed more northerly than west?

[Aric Dunn]

it almost looks like that vort is trying to develop lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

If it does develop, or even if it stays as it is now...might it tug Lane a little to the East at some point? Or at least keep it headed more northerly than west?

its quite possible. I made a large post on the previous page about it.

[Kingarabian]

18z Navy shifted a bit west, follows the CPHC track closely.

[Aric Dunn]

upper level outflow is expanding west and south again..

[AJC3]

it almost looks like that vort is trying to develop lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

If it does develop, or even if it stays as it is now...might it tug Lane a little to the East at some point? Or at least keep it headed more northerly than west?

its quite possible. I made a large post on the previous page about it.

Small point of clarification...the net effect on Lane's motion due to true binary interaction would be minimal/nil for the next couple days, if it occurs at all. Lane's circulation would be doing the vast majority of the tugging here, since binary interaction is dependent on circulation size/strength. What Aric is talking about, if I'm reading his post correctly, is that a more eastward track would be more of a function of "the blob" to its east eroding the ridge to its (and Lane's) north. So it wouldn't really be "tugging" the system, even though the net result would be similar (the more eastward track).

Carry on...