CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[OahuWahine]

I have what might be a stupid question but keep in mind I've never had to board up for a hurricane before. We don't have enough plywood to board up all the windows and the stores are all out. We have large picture windows in our living room, but they are in the front of the house which faces to the north. Two of the bedrooms have large windows that face to the south toward Pearl Harbor. I'm thinking I need to use the wood on the bedroom windows.

So in Oahu, given the GFS and Euro solutions, most of your winds will have a northerly and westerly component to them. Southerly winds, as it stands, will not be a factor for the island of Oahu until Lane passes two your south in about 48 hours. I would make sure any West and North facing windows are boarded up.

Thank you!

[boulderrr]

I have what might be a stupid question but keep in mind I've never had to board up for a hurricane before. We don't have enough plywood to board up all the windows and the stores are all out. We have large picture windows in our living room, but they are in the front of the house which faces to the north. Two of the bedrooms have large windows that face to the south toward Pearl Harbor. I'm thinking I need to use the wood on the bedroom windows.

A big thing to consider is the windows' exposure to projectiles that can break them. Based on the current forecast track (and depending on the integrity of your windows), it is unlikely the winds alone will break your windows. Is one set of windows more exposed to tree limbs that could blow down and break those windows?

While the storm is to your southeast (earlier), you will be experiencing winds out of the east and north (TOWARD the west and south). As the storm turns west and passes to your south, you will experience winds first out of the east and then out of the south (TOWARD the west and north).

Your windows are most prone to tree limbs or other projectiles blowing into them as opposed to the severe winds compromising their integrity.

If one set of windows has a massive tree that sways like crazy hanging over it and the other has nothing nearby, I would board up the windows near the tree.

I traveled to the Big Island after Iselle to assess damages. There was very little apparent damage due to wind alone. All the damage we saw was due to trees and limbs falling on buildings.

[txwatcher91]

Latest microwave pass indicates increasing organization again.

[Kingarabian]

no.. please

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it correlates pretty well with radar imagery.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1032802011178311681

[Kingarabian]

No doubt it remains a potent major hurricane.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just caught the tail end of TWC discussion and apparently there is already water rescues going on with houses flooded on one of the Islands. Didn't catch which island...but the water is going to be the biggest story when all is said and done I believe. Of course with all the water ahead of the storm, if any significant winds at all hit those areas, any trees are going to be easily uprooted.

[OahuWahine]

I have what might be a stupid question but keep in mind I've never had to board up for a hurricane before. We don't have enough plywood to board up all the windows and the stores are all out. We have large picture windows in our living room, but they are in the front of the house which faces to the north. Two of the bedrooms have large windows that face to the south toward Pearl Harbor. I'm thinking I need to use the wood on the bedroom windows.

A big thing to consider is the windows' exposure to projectiles that can break them. Based on the current forecast track (and depending on the integrity of your windows), it is unlikely the winds alone will break your windows. Is one set of windows more exposed to tree limbs that could blow down and break those windows?

While the storm is to your southeast (earlier), you will be experiencing winds out of the east and north (TOWARD the west and south). As the storm turns west and passes to your south, you will experience winds first out of the east and then out of the south (TOWARD the west and north).

Your windows are most prone to tree limbs or other projectiles blowing into them as opposed to the severe winds compromising their integrity.

If one set of windows has a massive tree that sways like crazy hanging over it and the other has nothing nearby, I would board up the windows near the tree.

I traveled to the Big Island after Iselle to assess damages. There was very little apparent damage due to wind alone. All the damage we saw was due to trees and limbs falling on buildings.

This makes me feel a lot better. We don't have any big trees on our property and I've already cleared the yard of all loose objects. Hopefully the neighbors did the same.

[SunnyThoughts]

https://www.facebook.com/khon2news/ still live on facebook...was showing live pictures of surf, has become pretty rough at diamond head.

[1900hurricane]

The fetch across the Island of Hawaii is about as bad as it can get right now. The low level flow is just about perpendicular to the highest ridgeline of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea, maximizing orographic forcing.

[PandaCitrus]

If it just goes straight north, it's going to direct hit on Honolulu at this point. Hopefully, it makes the turn before and misses. Even at a Cat 1, that island of close to 1 million people is no where near ready for 80 mph winds.

[Kingarabian]

If it just goes straight north, it's going to direct hit on Honolulu at this point. Hopefully, it makes the turn before and misses. Even at a Cat 1, that island of close to 1 million people is no where near ready for 80 mph winds.

That's what I'm worried about. The split between the Euro and GFS would take it awfully close to Honolulu.

[NDG]

It does look like it has gotten better organized again during the past few hours but the buoy never reported hurricane force winds after the eye went over it, maybe it was before the southern eyewall starting filling back up.

[supercane4867]

The current satellite presentation of Lane reminds me of Cyclone sidr. Having an obscured eye doesn't stop it from being a intense hurricane.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1032808220576948224

[Alyono]

this thing refuses to turn north though. Still NNW

[supercane4867]

If the last GFS and EC runs are true, Lane will move mostly NNW tonight followed by a rapid change to NE tomorrow.

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1032812445780271104

[AJC3]

It does look like it has gotten better organized again during the past few hours but the buoy never reported hurricane force winds after the eye went over it, maybe it was before the southern eyewall starting filling back up.

Keep in mind that during the period of peak winds that seas were 25FT, and the buoy spent half of its time taking wind readings inside that trough. Shielding from very high waves is a well-known problem during tropical cyclone and other extreme marine windstorm events. We frequently see this just offshore Florida, particularly at buoy 41010 - Floyd was a great example of this.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL081999_Floyd.pdf

Floyd’s eye passed over NOAA data buoy 41010, located about 105 nmi east-northeast
of Cape Canaveral, around 0900 UTC 15 September. That buoy reported maximum
8-minute averaged winds of 72 knots at an anemometer height of 5 meters. At least
three factors would imply a higher value for the 1-minute, 10 meter wind speed from
the buoy observation:

1) going from an 8-minute to a 1-minute average;
2) going from 5 meters to 10 meters elevation; and
3) the presence of waves over 50 feet high.

The best track intensity of Floyd when it passed over the buoy is near 100 knots, as
indicated by dropsonde and aircraft flight level wind data

[Alyono]

why did CPHC shift left on the forecast track?