CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

when did that vort/blob get classified as a invest? has it been one for awhile?

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... &TYPE=ssmi

Yes lol I made a thread for it. It's likely a TD or TS now.

I mean earlier today It started to look like something. I figured it would wash out and multiple other vorts would develop per the models.

interesting.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Invest 95C is really going to enhance the rain for Hawaii no matter what becomes of it. I still can't believe that's trying to form right next to Lane.

[Aric Dunn]

95C will help lower the overall background pressures to the NE of Lane likely drawing it to the nne and Ne soon.

the core is holding together fairly good actually .. lets hope it falls apart before any land.

though its looking less likely that it will weaken that fast.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032882615152332800

[Kingarabian]

24/0530 UTC 18.2N 157.9W T4.5/5.5 LANE -- Central Pacific

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032887498186227712

[Aric Dunn]

it is looking like residents are going to be waking up to winds they have never experienced before...

the highest winds in Hawaii since 1992 likely coming tomorrow. lets hope it starts to fall apart..

the outflow to the west and south is a little disconcerting though..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-wv.html

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/HwnElectric/status/1032883677955596288

[Kingarabian]

it is looking like residents are going to be waking up to winds they have never experienced before...

the highest winds in Hawaii since 1992 likely coming tomorrow. lets hope it starts to fall apart..

the outflow to the west and south is a little disconcerting though..

Yup here we go.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2018 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 18:06:36 N Lon : 157:55:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 953.9mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.9 5.9

[Cyclenall]

What's the likelihood this goes from a Cat2/3 to a TS in the next 12 hours

This is what I'm wondering; I think its possible but unlikely. We are watching a major hurricane get sheared apart afterall so who knows. Continue to keep us all updated King, 3.5% of all your posts on here have taken place during the past few days!!!

The insane differences in the models this close to closest contact/30 hours is a testament to how unusual this event is. I see some bizarre traits with all this that I haven't seen like how a mature hurricane interacts with the Hawaiian mountains from this particular angle and direction. And then to think there is a likely TS right beside it (what timing) to complicate things even further is extraordinary.

[Kingarabian]

What's the likelihood this goes from a Cat2/3 to a TS in the next 12 hours

This is what I'm wondering; I think its possible but unlikely. We are watching a major hurricane get sheared apart afterall so who knows. Continue to keep us all updated King, 3.5% of all your posts on here have taken place during the past few days!!!

The insane differences in the models this close to closest contact/30 hours is a testament to how unusual this event is. I see some bizarre traits with all this that I haven't seen like how a mature hurricane interacts with the Hawaiian mountains from this particular angle and direction. And then to think there is a likely TS right beside it (what timing) to complicate things even further is extraordinary.

Very gutsy winds have picked up. Unfortunately I just looked at my tin roof of the house I'm hunkering in and the edges are legit peeling off and flapping lol.

[Aric Dunn]

What's the likelihood this goes from a Cat2/3 to a TS in the next 12 hours

This is what I'm wondering; I think its possible but unlikely. We are watching a major hurricane get sheared apart afterall so who knows. Continue to keep us all updated King, 3.5% of all your posts on here have taken place during the past few days!!!

The insane differences in the models this close to closest contact/30 hours is a testament to how unusual this event is. I see some bizarre traits with all this that I haven't seen like how a mature hurricane interacts with the Hawaiian mountains from this particular angle and direction. And then to think there is a likely TS right beside it (what timing) to complicate things even further is extraordinary.

Very gutsy winds have picked up. Unfortunately I just looked at my tin roof of the house I'm hunkering in and the edges are legit peeling off and flapping lol.

So why are you still there ? even on the farthest approach moderate TS were forecast.. now it is looking much worse..

[Kingarabian]

This is what I'm wondering; I think its possible but unlikely. We are watching a major hurricane get sheared apart afterall so who knows. Continue to keep us all updated King, 3.5% of all your posts on here have taken place during the past few days!!!

The insane differences in the models this close to closest contact/30 hours is a testament to how unusual this event is. I see some bizarre traits with all this that I haven't seen like how a mature hurricane interacts with the Hawaiian mountains from this particular angle and direction. And then to think there is a likely TS right beside it (what timing) to complicate things even further is extraordinary.

Very gutsy winds have picked up. Unfortunately I just looked at my tin roof of the house I'm hunkering in and the edges are legit peeling off and flapping lol.

So why are you still there ? even on the farthest approach moderate TS were forecast.. now it is looking much worse..

Where am I supposed to go while flood is the biggest risk and my other unit is closer to the ocean and street level?

Theres also very limited shelter place, a high school, and its filling up fast if it's not filled already.

[Aric Dunn]

Very gutsy winds have picked up. Unfortunately I just looked at my tin roof of the house I'm hunkering in and the edges are legit peeling off and flapping lol.

So why are you still there ? even on the farthest approach moderate TS were forecast.. now it is looking much worse..

Where am I supposed to go while flood is the biggest risk and my other unit is closer to the ocean and street level?

Shelter...

[Aric Dunn]

Well Good night all.. be safe those of you in the path.

the next 24 hours will be interesting to say the least.

[OahuWahine]

We've been told to shelter in place unless we live in a flood zone. There are only 270,000 shelter spots for over a million people.

[Huaka]

I've never posted/joined on here and usually just lurked all these long years (haha) but there's some pretty good gusts down here in Honolulu.

[Kingarabian]

Well Good night all.. be safe those of you in the path.

the next 24 hours will be interesting to say the least.

Thank you and Alyono, and everyone else for the continued up to date information in regards to Lane. I filter out the information and extend this information to my extended family, relatives, and friends. Thus indirectly, you all are doing a great deed and helping out people you've never met.

[Kingarabian]

We've been told to shelter in place unless we live in a flood zone. There are only 270,000 shelter spots for over a million people.

Ditto this. Lane could be a disaster in the making.