CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[OahuWahine]

I've never posted/joined on here and usually just lurked all these long years (haha) but there's some pretty good gusts down here in Honolulu.

I'm in Waipio and it's starting to get pretty gusty as of the last hour. Scary to think this might just be the beginning.

[Huaka]

I've never posted/joined on here and usually just lurked all these long years (haha) but there's some pretty good gusts down here in Honolulu.

I'm in Waipio and it's starting to get pretty gusty as of the last hour. Scary to think this might just be the beginning.

I've kept all my windows closed so I can't look out. Have way too much anxiety already. I live near the Waikiki area so *gulps*.

[Kingarabian]

I've never posted/joined on here and usually just lurked all these long years (haha) but there's some pretty good gusts down here in Honolulu.

I'm in Waipio and it's starting to get pretty gusty as of the last hour. Scary to think this might just be the beginning.

Yup picked up in Kalihi and Liliha.

[storm4u]

Stay safe and try to get some rest before all heck breaks loose...

We've been told to shelter in place unless we live in a flood zone. There are only 270,000 shelter spots for over a million people.

Ditto this. Lane could be a disaster in the making.

[Kingarabian]

CPHC/NWS are aware that a stronger Lane is less likely to take a west turn.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/08/2 ... gist-says/

But Richard Henning, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who made three flights into Lane this week in a WP-3D Orion “Hurricane Hunter,” said the storm is not weakening as much as it was earlier predicted it would.

“It will be bad news for Oahu if the storm tomorrow is stronger than (the Central Pacific Hurricane Center) has forecast right now — because that will make a turn to the left more unlikely before it gets to Oahu,” Henning said. “Everyone on Oahu should be prepared to take a direct hit.”

Wind shear destroys the vertical structure of the storm, “but Lane has actually shown that it’s very resistant to that wind shear,” holding an intensity that’s a lot stronger than anticipated just a couple days ago, according to Henning.

[OahuWahine]

I've never posted/joined on here and usually just lurked all these long years (haha) but there's some pretty good gusts down here in Honolulu.

I'm in Waipio and it's starting to get pretty gusty as of the last hour. Scary to think this might just be the beginning.

I've kept all my windows closed so I can't look out. Have way too much anxiety already. I live near the Waikiki area so *gulps*.

I was sitting out on my porch for a while. It was actually pretty cool and peaceful... until a giant flying roach dive bombed me and I ran for safety

[OahuWahine]

CPHC/NWS are aware that a stronger Lane is less likely to take a west turn.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/08/2 ... gist-says/

But Richard Henning, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who made three flights into Lane this week in a WP-3D Orion “Hurricane Hunter,” said the storm is not weakening as much as it was earlier predicted it would.

“It will be bad news for Oahu if the storm tomorrow is stronger than (the Central Pacific Hurricane Center) has forecast right now — because that will make a turn to the left more unlikely before it gets to Oahu,” Henning said. “Everyone on Oahu should be prepared to take a direct hit.”

Wind shear destroys the vertical structure of the storm, “but Lane has actually shown that it’s very resistant to that wind shear,” holding an intensity that’s a lot stronger than anticipated just a couple days ago, according to Henning.

Whoa!

[Kingarabian]

CPHC/NWS are aware that a stronger Lane is less likely to take a west turn.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/08/2 ... gist-says/

But Richard Henning, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who made three flights into Lane this week in a WP-3D Orion “Hurricane Hunter,” said the storm is not weakening as much as it was earlier predicted it would.

“It will be bad news for Oahu if the storm tomorrow is stronger than (the Central Pacific Hurricane Center) has forecast right now — because that will make a turn to the left more unlikely before it gets to Oahu,” Henning said. “Everyone on Oahu should be prepared to take a direct hit.”

Wind shear destroys the vertical structure of the storm, “but Lane has actually shown that it’s very resistant to that wind shear,” holding an intensity that’s a lot stronger than anticipated just a couple days ago, according to Henning.

Whoa!

We've been warning about this scenario days in advance.

[Kingarabian]

Almost looks like a central cold cover (CCC) has taken over, vs. the normal CDO we would normally see...

[NotoSans]

Looks like the great Hawaiian shear is now taking its toll. LANE looks increasingly disorganized as per latest EIR frames, but rain remains the major threat.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032918133328240641

[Kingarabian]

Pretty confusing CPHC discussion tonight. They're subtly implying Lane is going to hit the islands, and discussing its track afterwards:

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

Hurricane Lane is beginning to show some signs of slow weakening
due to wind shear of over 20 knots from the southwest according to
the SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in
satellite imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile
conditions. Radar reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at
Molokai and Kohala show the center is becoming elongated in a north
to south direction. The latest satellite intensity estimates from
HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.5/102 knots, while the
UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.7/107 knots. The current intensity is held at
105 kt based on these estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 350/5 knots, which shows a northward
turn has occurred this evening. Lane continues to be steered toward
the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is
located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to
show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due
north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of Lane.
The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast
through the next 48 hours. This more closely follows the latest
consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane
continues to approach the Main Hawaiian Islands, so there is no
reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming
Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the
islands, Lane is forecast to come increasingly under the influence
of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the
exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only
a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north.
This will produce considerably worse conditions over the islands.
Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts
are expected in the Hawaiian Islands.

Our intensity forecast shows some weakening, but continues to trend
on the high side of the intensity guidance through 72 hours owing to
how organized Lane's core has been in recent days. Note that the
CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content along the latest forecast track
continues to show very high values during the next 24 to 36 hours,
so this will likely help maintain the intensity longer than might
be expected with such high shear. By early next week, it is possible
that Lane will not survive the shear, and may become a remnant low
by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind
through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands.
Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise
buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 18.2N 158.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 19.0N 158.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.9N 158.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 20.3N 160.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 20.3N 163.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 21.0N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 24.6N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS into Maui again:

[tolakram]

IR live loop

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-159&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=ir&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=yellow

[gib]

I've lurked on this site for many, many years; now seemed like a good time to finally register. I'm on Oahu, in more or less the center of the island. It's been gusty throughout the evening but very little in the way of rain. This is going to be interesting.

[Kingarabian]

06z HWRF and HMON running.

[NDG]

No southern eyewall, good sign that it has continued to slowly weaken.

[Kingarabian]

Solid north headling

[Kingarabian]

06z HMON almost into Maui as a weak TS at hour 27.

[Kingarabian]

06z HMON almost into Maui as a weak TS at hour 27, bu weakenst shifts west through hour 33. Also it has Lane stronger in this run vs. the 00z run.

06z HWRF continues to maintain Lanes strength and has Lane reaching Maui as a Cat2/1.