CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Next 6 hours Lane has to begin turning NNE for these Maui landfall solutions to verify.

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1032935328372408320

[NotoSans]

The westward turn may occur sooner than expected if current trend continues. LANE is becoming increasingly sheared as per latest EIR and SWIR frames - agencies have a tendency to underestimate the rate of weakening for this type of storms, and Dvorak estimates will be badly constrained as well.

Nevertheless, rain is going to be a major threat.

[BobHarlem]

A bit over 5000 power outages on Oahu so far https://outagemap-heco.azurewebsites.net/ (There were none yesterday)

[tolakram]

Very odd response to westerly shear, with the cold tops expanding west.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=ir&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

[NDG]

Very odd response to westerly shear, with the cold tops expanding west.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=ir&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

https://i.imgur.com/iGhapW7.png

Current SW mid level shear is even more destructive, I think we are starting the see the system start decoupling, the mid level circulation is moving N to NNE while the low level circulation is moving more NNW, radar is starting to show it.

[BobHarlem]

In the last couple of frames on radar there seems to be a hint of that easterly motion that some of the models were projecting. I bet the eye gets very stretched out today.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_l ... M&loop=yes

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, core is really taking a beating on radar.

[WAcyclone]

Here's a higher-resolution version of that radar loop with 2 minute intervals:

[euro6208]

Quite confusing with all of these hawaiian names and where they are located. Google earth to the rescue...

[NDG]

Here's a higher-resolution version of that radar loop with 2 minute intervals:

https://i.imgur.com/V0IW3fL.gif

Wow, there's barely an organized northern eyewall left, there is no way that Lane is still a major hurricane as I type this, at best a Cat 2. IMO.

[tolakram]

Not sure if this was posted earlier or not.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Weakening-Lane-Still-Track-Slam-Hawaii-Widespread-Floods-Mudslides

[wxman57]

It's weakening fast this morning. Not much in the way of squalls across the islands now. Most convection is west of the center. I don't think anyone would upgrade something like this to a 95kt hurricane. Maybe 65-70 kts?

[PandaCitrus]

I think the wind threat is greatly diminished now. The islands probably won't end up getting more than the 40 to 50 mph gusts they are already receiving. The big question is rain. Where does the big blob of intense rain go? Seems like Oahu will get the worst of the rain and flood threat on the current trajectory.

[tolakram]

Posting the tweet and images for those of us blocked.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1032956942287687680








5/ But watch the trends w/ #Lane's appearance.

If radar or visible today suggests the low-level center is becoming exposed, a leftward track towards the ECMWF would be more likely. If the eye stays distinct on radar, a rightward track like the GFS would be more likely.

[tolakram]

@NWSHonolulu
2h2 hours ago
Preliminary storm totals from Big Island: Hakalau Station 31.21", Waikea Experimental Station 23.67". #HurricaneLane #HIwx

[NotSparta]

Very odd response to westerly shear, with the cold tops expanding west.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=ir&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

The shear is in the mid-levels, so while it looks low due the outflow, the shear that is weakening the system is underneath the canopy

[Twisted-core]

wsw shortwave is knocking lane about.

[Yellow Evan]

This maybe be starting to decouple but not in a way I expected. Likely gonna have to become exposed before this turns west.

[NDG]

This maybe be starting to decouple but not in a way I expected. Likely gonna have to become exposed before this turns west.

No question it is decoupling.

[tolakram]

Agreed. I like the faster view. We are only seeing the MLC here, and maybe the top of the LLC.