CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

it look we see this as td or tropical wave by next avd this could good news could make less rain maker doing weekend their could see rain break

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

As I thought (while viewing the radar and color-enhanced IR this afternoon) Lane is rapidly falling apart. Looks like good news for the Islands.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

So my take, for what it's worth (not much) is that the big island blocked a lot of inflow. I didn't see a decoupling so much as a dead stop. We've seen EPAC storms sheared to pieces and you can visibly follow the MLC as it races off in the direction of the shear.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

In this case it looks interrupted, and you can see new convection firing on the north side of the LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/zVsGXt8.png

Well in that case we know who wins in the whole "volcano vs hurricane" debates

[wxman57]

NNW wind at 10kts at Kona (west coast Big Island). Not very supportive of an LLC just to the west.

PHKO 250053Z 34010KT 4SM RA BR SCT075 BKN100 OVC120 26/24 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP086 P0006 T02610239
PHKO 242353Z 05005KT 10SM RA SCT070 BKN110 27/23 A2979 RMK AO2 RAB41 SLP088 P0001 60013 T02720228 10283 20250 58010
PHKO 242253Z 34005KT 10SM FEW046 BKN065 OVC110 27/23 A2982 RMK AO2 RAE47 SLP097 P0004 T02670233
PHKO 242153Z 28004KT 10SM -RA FEW030 OVC110 28/24 A2983 RMK AO2 RAB53 SLP103 P0000 T02780239

[Cyclenall]

What's the likelihood this goes from a Cat2/3 to a TS in the next 12 hours

Well now we know the answer.

Hawaii sure dodged a bullet once again with Lane in terms of seeing another Iniki repeat.

No it didn't, its physics and topography. There were enormous differences in the setup between Lane and Iniki. There is a reason I don't get worked up over Hawaiian hurricane threats, only devastating flooding. What's interesting is the Big Island is taking the punishment from this despite Lane being out of its way. Even with a once CAT5 heading for the other smaller islands it still takes an incredibly rare setup to produce a hurricane landfall.

[wxman57]

Lane won't produce any strong wind across the islands, but there is still some heavy rain moving in.

[hurricaneCW]

Tremendous rainfall on the Big Island right now, I don't consider 50" of rain dodging anything, this was never expected to be more than a flood threat.

[tolakram]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

LLC now visible well west of the remaining convection and it may be moving west.

[wxman57]

CPHC did downgrade Lane to a TS. Very generous giving it 60 kts. They appear to be relying on Dvorak with its constraints about not allowing rapid weakening.

[cycloneye]

Is great news for those folks that the winds wont be a big issue but still the rainfall will be the main hazard.

[Mauistorms]

Solid, steady rain for the last hour in Upcountry Maui. Gusty wind remains the same

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...LANE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF OAHU BUT RAIN BANDS
WILL STILL BRING MORE FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS TO PARTS OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 158.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

Is great news for those folks that the winds wont be a big issue but still the rainfall will be the main hazard.

Yes thank god. After watching videos of Maria and Irma, and seeing the TS gusts make my roof flap up and down, I was getting worried.

[supercane4867]

Any latest rainfall totals from the Big Island?

[PandaCitrus]

Major flooding around Hilo on the Big Island. 6.5 inches in the last 3 hours.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1033204865932165125




 https://twitter.com/hoonani/status/1033199073275207682

[1900hurricane]

After letting up a bit several hours ago, the eastern side of the Island of Hawaii is getting crushed by rainfall again.

[Kingarabian]

After letting up a bit several hours ago, the eastern side of the Island of Hawaii is getting crushed by rainfall again.

Thankfully the rains have been calm here in Honolulu. I'm assuming as Lanes moves west the rains will shift towards Maui/Oahu?

[OahuWahine]

After letting up a bit several hours ago, the eastern side of the Island of Hawaii is getting crushed by rainfall again.

Thankfully the rains have been calm here in Honolulu. I'm assuming as Lanes moves west the rains will shift towards Maui/Oahu?

Doesn't seem like there's going to be any rain left for Oahu. Nanakuli could use some right about now since the brush fire is still going.

[Huaka]

After letting up a bit several hours ago, the eastern side of the Island of Hawaii is getting crushed by rainfall again.

Thankfully the rains have been calm here in Honolulu. I'm assuming as Lanes moves west the rains will shift towards Maui/Oahu?

Doesn't seem like there's going to be any rain left for Oahu. Nanakuli could use some right about now since the brush fire is still going.

Or Lahaina. Hope the rain they get puts out that raging brush fire.

[hawaiigirl]

Hey I just wanted to give a big shout out to all of you for posting your knowledge here. It had really helped a lot of people during this crazy week! Much mahalo!