WPAC: INVEST 93W

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93W INVEST 180823 0000 19.3N 135.0E WPAC 15 0

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.3N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231207Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY
SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND MOST SHOW SOME DEGREE OF
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED AS TO
THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 132.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240115Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
MOSTLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A
LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
A 240114Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ASYMMETRIC
WINDS, SHOWING LOWER (5-10 KNOTS) TO THE WEST AND HIGHER (15-20
KNOTS) TO THE EAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION AND GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO IF IT WILL INTENSIFY, HAVE INTERACTION WITH 24W, OR CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 28N 127E NW 10 KT.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.1N 128.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY
100 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250053Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM
INTERACTING WITH ENERGY FROM THE DISSIPATING 24W IN A REVERSE
MONSOON TROUGH PATTERN THAT MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AT LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.

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TXPQ28 KNES 250908
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 25/0830Z

C. 28.5N

D. 126.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEARED PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
GREATER THAN 75 NM FROM SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 28.0N 127.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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Dissipated.