CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[galaxy401]

Looking really bad over at the east side of the Big Island. Under constant heavy rain that is showing no signs of abating.

[galaxy401]

Pahoa (southeast of Hilo) has gotten 3.36 inches of rain in just a hour. Over an inch in just 15 minutes. It's quickly becoming a nightmare over there.

Hilo has gotten at least 10 inches in the past six hours. Maui starting to get hit too.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty bad on the Big Island now. Go away Lane.

[Airboy]

When I look at sat images it looks like the remaing system went NE...

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1033304779953516544

[Airboy]

Looks like a bit of blow up with cold cloud tops near the center

[Visioen]

GFS 72 hours, I hope it's wrong.

[Ubuntwo]

Massive burst of convection.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

...LANE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 158.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

During the past few hours, satellite imagery shows a burst of
convection has developed near the circulation center of Lane, which
was nearly totally exposed Friday evening. Lightning has also been
persistent near the core of this deep convection. More importantly,
we have been able to see the apparent center of circulation in the
radar reflectivity data, which helps our confidence in the latest
location and motion. Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of
the latest satellite intensity estimates, we have lowered the
initial intensity to 50 knots.

The latest motion for this advisory is 350/3 knots. The current
track forecast has been nudged slightly to the right through 36
hours, with little change from days 2 through 5. This forecast
closely follows the HWRF, and is to the right of the consensus
models such as TVCN, GFEX and HCCA. There are only subtle changes in
the track forecast compared with the previous from days 2 through 5.
Lane is expected to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of
greater than 30 knots. The latest intensity forecast has Lane
becoming post-tropical by day 4. Assuming this low survives, it may
eventually become an extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands by day 5.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane
are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the
state. In addition, strong winds are also possible in these rain
bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps,
and where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.8N 158.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 20.2N 158.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 20.3N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.2N 162.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 163.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.2N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 24.5N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1200Z 29.5N 172.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston

[BYG Jacob]

I knew he would come back. I freakin knew it

[floridasun78]

I knew he would come back. I freakin knew it

it not coming back it over night storm blowup and dieing out

[tolakram]

Live visible

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

[tolakram]

A lot of rain out there still.

saved loop

[Blown Away]

103 pages a CPAC system record?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

...LANE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 159.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the circulation
center of Lane. Lightning has also been persistent near the core of
this deep convection. Visible satellite imagery shows the low level
circulation center is partially exposed on the southwest side of
the deepest convection. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and the
latest satellite representation of Lane, we have lowered the
initial intensity to 45 knots. Wind radii were decreased based on
an overnight ASCAT pass.

Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to
this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and
SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about
36 hours and to a remnant low in about 72 hours. Assuming this low
survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the
vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5.

The latest motion for this advisory is 280/6 knots. Early morning
visible imagery combined with an AMSR pass at 1205Z confirmed that
Lane has made the long awaited turn toward the west. The current
track forecast has been shifted to the left through 48 hours, with
little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely follows
the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models. There are only
subtle changes in the track forecast compared with the previous
forecast from days 2 through 5.

Based on the confirmation on the turn to the west as well as the
latest forecast track, all watches and warnings for the main
Hawaiian Islands have been discontinued.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Lingering moisture associated with Lane will continue to
bring persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the state.
Locally gusty winds will continue to be accelerated over higher
terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.7N 159.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.7N 160.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.5N 161.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.7N 165.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 21.6N 167.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 25.5N 169.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1800Z 30.4N 174.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Burke

[Ntxw]

103 pages a CPAC system record?

Might be for CPAC and EPAC. Not even Patricia garnered 100 pages.

[Kingarabian]

103 pages a CPAC system record?

Might be for CPAC and EPAC. Not even Patricia garnered 100 pages.

Looks like most of us busted on our forecasts for Lane. Arguably 145kts at one point.

[Blown Away]

103 pages a CPAC system record?

Might be for CPAC and EPAC. Not even Patricia garnered 100 pages.

Looks like most of us busted on our forecasts for Lane. Arguably 145kts at one point.

Overall the CPHC/models had Lane weakening and staying offshore. Not sure it was a bust.

[Ntxw]

Might be for CPAC and EPAC. Not even Patricia garnered 100 pages.

Looks like most of us busted on our forecasts for Lane. Arguably 145kts at one point.

Overall the CPHC/models had Lane weakening and staying offshore. Not sure it was a bust.

I think he was referring to the early days when most of us were guessing 120kts at peak "typical fish Cat 4 major"

[boulderrr]

Might be for CPAC and EPAC. Not even Patricia garnered 100 pages.

Looks like most of us busted on our forecasts for Lane. Arguably 145kts at one point.

Overall the CPHC/models had Lane weakening and staying offshore. Not sure it was a bust.

CPHC had to be cautious and communicate to the public what COULD happen with a minor deviation. It's a rough position for them. I was a bit surprised they were saying hurricane conditions were likely (instead of possible) on Oahu and Maui right up until the end, even when their graphics showed <25% chance of hurricane force winds. Being over-prepared is always better than being under-prepared though. It's quite the balancing act they are forced to deal with.