Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Cpv17]

looks like the Euro develops it very close to SW Florida at 192

south of the Panhandle at 216, looks LA/MS bound?

With the ridge to the north I’m not so sure how far north it’ll make it. What’s more concerning is it looks like there’s a growing consensus for a tropical storm in the Gulf next week and everyone along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor trends.

[Brent]

looks like the Euro develops it very close to SW Florida at 192

south of the Panhandle at 216, looks LA/MS bound?

With the ridge to the north I’m not so sure how far north it’ll make it. What’s more concerning is it looks like there’s a growing consensus for a tropical storm in the Gulf next week and everyone along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor trends.

either way its way stronger this run, the 12z didn't even develop til the last minute

probably close to a hurricane into New Orleans at 240

[Cpv17]

Euro has what looks like a strong tropical storm or cat 1 into New Orleans next Thursday into Friday.

[Cpv17]

looks like the Euro develops it very close to SW Florida at 192

south of the Panhandle at 216, looks LA/MS bound?

With the ridge to the north I’m not so sure how far north it’ll make it. What’s more concerning is it looks like there’s a growing consensus for a tropical storm in the Gulf next week and everyone along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor trends.

either way its way stronger this run, the 12z didn't even develop til the last minute

probably close to a hurricane into New Orleans at 240

Well it’s gonna be interesting to see the ensembles, but either way I think this thread is about to take off like a rocket with that run of the Euro.

[AtlanticWind]

I would think that's a hurricane in the euro run.

[AtlanticWind]

Something to watch in the model runs in the next few days for sure

[cycloneye]

Is borderline Hurricane/Strong Tropical Storm on 00z Euro. I think is time to pay more attention to this wave.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the area near 9N -37W might qualify as its still tracking south feeding from the ITCZ.
Probably would qualify as a depression but SAL or shear might prevent development (before the islands).

[toad strangler]

6z GFS looking very similar to 0z Euro through 228 TS or strong Depression into Louisiana

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is not close, it has a strong trough sucking it up !!! Gfs is wack, stout ridge over a week apart wouldn’t surprise me if Mexico is on next run, gfs is acting like a October pattern lol

[cycloneye]

Wave has been relocated back in longitude as of 06z surface analysis. Now is around 52W that coincides with the timing of the models.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Strength of the system depends on two factors: how far north it goes (i.e, doesn't make landfall with any of the more mountainous islands), and how fast it goes. A slower system will have more time over the relatively low shear, hot SST environment of the GOMEX.

[NDG]

A lot can still change since development in is the mid range forecast but with the 06z GFS agreeing with the Euro it means the chances of development are increasing, more Euro ensembles are also jumping in on board with the operational run.

Another look at the 0z Euro.


0z Ensembles.

[toad strangler]

Not surprisingly that is a huge spread on the Euro ensembles.

[AutoPenalti]

Not sure where that wave is exactly...

[stormlover2013]

The upper level pattern is totally different from the gfs and euro lol not even close

[cycloneye]

Not sure where that wave is exactly...

https://i.imgur.com/d1OHqXQ.gif

Near 52W is the location of wave axis as of 06Z surface analysis.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS:

A TUTT is forecast to hold to the north and northeast
of the region through Friday. The TUTT combined with low level
moisture associated with a tropical wave that is forecast to move
across the region late Wednesday or early Thursday will increase
low level and upper level instability across the local islands. As
a result, an increase in showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the end of the work week across most of the islands.

[BobHarlem]

Personally I think the area due north of Hispaniola (and due east of West Palm) has a better chance than this (Based on the way it looks now). The area N of Hispaniola is probably too small for models to really pick up on. But I bet nothing happens much with either, in other words a sign of things heating up, but that's about it. (Setting myself up to eat crow)

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 19N
between 48W and 60W.