Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[stormlover2013]

now GFS s is showing something it's just weaker and go through florida straits

[Hurricaneman]

now GFS s is showing something it's just weaker and go through florida straits

The 12zgfs isn’t up to that pt yet

[stormlover2013]

talking about the 6Z run

[SoupBone]

Shear dropping over Bahamas and east of Florida:

True, but it's increasing over the Caribbean Islands, and the SW section of Florida. Minimally, but increasing.

[cycloneye]

12z surface analysis continues to have the wave axis tilted from NE to SW and now between 62W and 58W.

[Steve]

Not much so far on the GFS, but you can see the winds off the Texas coast sort of showing some turning at 102hrs. This might be too fast, and perhaps that's the result of a forerunning upper level low or something considering that the wave wouldn't be to the Gulf Coast until about 170-180 hours or so at the earliest. It remains to be seen.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82912&fh=6

[cycloneye]

Wave has a good deal of showers with some thunderstorms as those yellow dots show. If the shear would not be this strong,this wave would be a TD or Storm.

[Bocadude85]

The 12Z CMC shows nothing either, it seems the only model that develops this is the Euro.

[chris_fit]

Yup - cricketts so far on 12z Guidance for this wave. Let's see what EURO says in 1.5 hours

[Steve]

GFS eventually does show a turning mass heading toward SE Texas. It's offshore south of Lafayette or so at 198 hours. Looks on simulated IR like it's wanting to spin it up as it gets closer to the coast. Bastardi warned today that anything running south of the Coast will have more chance to get better organized which he thinks it will. I think he had the wave axis across SC LA by next Friday (edit confirmed)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=54

[PSUHiker31]

Honestly the GFS modeling of this wave makes me wonder if it's back to doing the same thing it did last year with showing something, dropping it in the mid range, and then getting it back again.

I think I'll trust the Euro a bit more here.

[tolakram]

Honestly the GFS modeling of this wave makes me wonder if it's back to doing the same thing it did last year with showing something, dropping it in the mid range, and then getting it back again.

I think I'll trust the Euro a bit more here.

I believe it was the euro that had the drop mid range issue. IMO it all depends on which model has the upper air conditions correct, and the euro regularly does much better at 5 days.

[Steve]

Honestly the GFS modeling of this wave makes me wonder if it's back to doing the same thing it did last year with showing something, dropping it in the mid range, and then getting it back again.

I think I'll trust the Euro a bit more here.

I was wondering the same thing yesterday. 2017 wasn't that great in the mid-range for a lot of the global models. Here's the final solution at 228 hours for the GFS. You can see Chambers and Jefferson Counties, Texas taking the brunt of the rain. This is at least 12 hours into the rainfall.

[PSUHiker31]

Honestly the GFS modeling of this wave makes me wonder if it's back to doing the same thing it did last year with showing something, dropping it in the mid range, and then getting it back again.

I think I'll trust the Euro a bit more here.

I believe it was the euro that had the drop mid range issue. IMO it all depends on which model has the upper air conditions correct, and the euro regularly does much better at 5 days.

I thought it was both models doing it, but it seems they tweaked something in the Euro that corrected that this year in both basins.

[Steve]

I thought it was both models doing it, but it seems they tweaked something in the Euro that corrected that this year in both basins.

It was for a while. Harvey is a great example.

[wxman22]

Like the 6z run the 12z GFS tries to develop the wave before it reaches the Texas coast fwiw..

[cycloneye]

Update from the San Juan NWS:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1140 AM AST Wed Aug 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Rainy and gusty conditions are expected through the evening hours
as the tropical wave moves closer to the islands. The forecast
package was updated to take in consideration the current weather
conditions. Thunderstorm development with heavy rainfall and
brief gusty winds is expected through this evening across the
islands. In addition, heavy rains could lead to urban and small
stream flooding and prolonged periods could results in mudslides
along areas of steep terrain.

[ronjon]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

[Bocadude85]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

I agree, we will find out soon enough if the 12Z Euro drops development or not.

[Steve]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

I don't think that's a conclusion anyone should come to this far out. The Canadian drives the CONUS front into the Gulf around 10 days, and has most of the residual precipitation in south Texas after shooting in a tropical surge into SE Texas. I think the GFS gives the hint with the turning it shows, but it's too far out to make anything out of it. I'm not calling for development or no development. It's just wait and see mode for now because we're too far out other than generalities.