Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Steve]

Also, if you run it at 500mb, the CMC and GFS are completely different. CMC brings down a backdoor front and trough to the Atlantic Coast. GFS has no such scenario and maintains a block in the NE US and SE Canada throughout the duration of the last run.

[Steve]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

I agree, we will find out soon enough if the 12Z Euro drops development or not.

So are you saying you will base your decisions or information off of a model run 9.5 days out? If the European drops development this far out, what difference does it make?

[chris_fit]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

This. Agree 100%

[Bocadude85]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

I agree, we will find out soon enough if the 12Z Euro drops development or not.

So are you saying you will base your decisions or information off of a model run 9.5 days out? If the European drops development this far out, what difference does it make?

I’m referring to the development the Euro was showing in the Bahamas 5 days from now.

[SoupBone]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

I don't think that's a conclusion anyone should come to this far out. The Canadian drives the CONUS front into the Gulf around 10 days, and has most of the residual precipitation in south Texas after shooting in a tropical surge into SE Texas. I think the GFS gives the hint with the turning it shows, but it's too far out to make anything out of it. I'm not calling for development or no development. It's just wait and see mode for now because we're too far out other than generalities.

It doesn't mean much, but at least for S2K, my bellwether for systems is when you see pro-mets commenting with more frequency. So far, it's been mainly crickets with a few like Dylan and Wxman57 posting. Of course, they are humans like the rest of us, but I put more weight into these when I see more blue names posting. And that's not to discount several knowledgeable posters like NDG and others as well.

[Steve]

I agree, we will find out soon enough if the 12Z Euro drops development or not.

So are you saying you will base your decisions or information off of a model run 9.5 days out? If the European drops development this far out, what difference does it make?

I’m referring to the development the Euro was showing in the Bahamas 5 days from now.

That's a lot closer in time frame than 9.5/10 days out. But it still won't mean much outside of the Bahamas and Florida. The end game isn't probably there IMHO, that's just probably the first course.

[stormlover2013]

other gfs model alot more bullish with trop storm headed to Sw/LA

[wxGuy]

Beginning to show similar setups like it did for Rita and Katrina, before the waves made it to the gulf the models had them hitting Florida and possibly re-curving but continued to push through and hit Texas and Louisiana. History likes to repeat itself. well see

Dude, you’ve been constantly trying to compare this wave to Katrina or Rita. Something like those storms COULD happen but chances are slim to none at the moment.


From levin cowan: A tropical wave east of the Leewards will be warily monitored as it comes west.

Its interaction w/ the PV streamer is key. Such interactions can organize convection & lead to genesis (e.g. Rita '05), but can also shear the wave. EC has a weaker PV streamer and/or more convection

thanks for having my back storm

[Steve]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

I don't think that's a conclusion anyone should come to this far out. The Canadian drives the CONUS front into the Gulf around 10 days, and has most of the residual precipitation in south Texas after shooting in a tropical surge into SE Texas. I think the GFS gives the hint with the turning it shows, but it's too far out to make anything out of it. I'm not calling for development or no development. It's just wait and see mode for now because we're too far out other than generalities.

It doesn't mean much, but at least for S2K, my bellwether for systems is when you see pro-mets commenting with more frequency. So far, it's been mainly crickets with a few like Dylan and Wxman57 posting. Of course, they are humans like the rest of us, but I put more weight into these when I see more blue names posting. And that's not to discount several knowledgeable posters like NDG and others as well.

9+ days is a long time. Most of those guys are pretty reserved and hold steady until it's time to panic. I also put more stock into what all pro-mets say here. But they'll be the first ones to tell you they aren't everything. And they won't be the first ones usually leading the charge for development. They've all been wrong dozens of times as we all have as well. I hear what you're saying, but I didn't see much of a point to leaning on longer range global models to say whether or not there will or won't be development. I look at them as part of a toolset. Reality is another major tool in that bucket. We have a persistent wave moving into an area that's liable to be somewhat more favorable for development which then crosses into the Gulf which may be more favorable still - all with a progged block to the north and northeast. To me, it's a curiosity feature now and not so much of "OMG we're doomed" or "This won't develop because questionable modeling doesn't show it." I'm not trying to come off as an a-hole or anything. I just don't see value in pronouncements that are anyone's guess.

[floridasun78]

i agree alot people like too go cazy with models runs i dont see other join them if not it likely we wont see system you cannot go with one models run

[MississippiWx]

The GFS solutions show development as the system approaches the Western Gulf Coast. The biggest difference between the GFS/Euro is that the Euro keeps the best vorticity north of the big islands while the GFS seems to take the disturbance over all of the islands. This obviously causes a delay in development until the system makes it into the Western Gulf. I’d watch for the track of the vort max in the short term.

[stormlover2013]

I agree MISS

[Siker]

12z FV3 GFS sends a TS into SWLA.

[Hammy]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

This. Agree 100%

Canadian has missed smaller storms before, and the GFS has a weak signature (the model that refuses to develop anything that there's an actual seedling to until 2-3 days before) and the FV3 now develops it as well. And the two models that don't actually develop it are the ones most excessively bullish with upper troughs in general (and they don't develop them as a result of one).

[Stormcenter]

Far too early to signal the "All clear" or to "Sound the alarm" in reference to this wave. The models as we all know or at least should know will go back and forth
with and without develop until they finally all begin to agree on something. That being said, if the EURO is saying something may form then I would pay attention. IMO

[MississippiWx]

The Gulf of Mexico has been very favorable for convection lately. Day after day of thunderstorms have been prevalent, so the Gulf is an unstable area. Add the ridge sitting over the East Coast, and you have an area favorable for convergence and tropical development. I’m very wary of this sneaky guy...

[wxGuy]

This is the 7th day in a row GFS showing wave coming into Gomex... I'm not saying the storm is "going to be like rita/katrina" you guys need to chill with that... I SAID "starting to see similar setups"
keep your eyes peeled jack we still have a hurricane season!

[Steve]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

This. Agree 100%

Canadian has missed smaller storms before, and the GFS has a weak signature (the model that refuses to develop anything that there's an actual seedling to until 2-3 days before) and the FV3 now develops it as well. And the two models that don't actually develop it are the ones most excessively bullish with upper troughs in general (and they don't develop them as a result of one).

That's an interesting track for early September (FV3-GFS) and a departure from what GFS and EC had shown in days past. Instead of a WNW heading system, this one gets pretty far west and then hooks due north presumably due to the front coming down to its north. It also appears to be tightening as it heads north which we haven't seen with a north moving Gulf storm in a while. I remember Cindy in 2005 did that, but I don't recall a whole bunch of other recent storms to have pulled that off.

[stormlover2013]

also GFS is known for over doing cold fronts.....so we shall see

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 21N58W 16N60W 13N62W 08N62W, ending in Venezuela. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 13N to 20N between 58W and Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 54W and 70W.

Guadeloupe, Martinica, and the Northern Leewards are always Under this yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tsorms.
Numerous strong but brief line of showers with thunderstoms and modest gusts... have swept our island this morning. Thunder is rumbling nicely while i'm posting. Whereas, nothing too bad in terms of rainfall of the moment. We continue to monitor closely this active tw as upper dynamics should be more strong tonight ( given our local Pro Mets).
Regards.
Gustywind