Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[wxGuy]

also GFS is known for over doing cold fronts.....so we shall see

they also work on there models and improvements so...

[GCANE]

Carib Cruiser?

[Evil Jeremy]

Guys, save the debate for when there is a system worth debating over. Right now we have a wave, not even an invest, or anything worthy of a 5-day designation from the NHC. Too early to consider any specific scenario as 'most plausible'.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 21N58W 16N60W 13N62W 08N62W, ending in Venezuela. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 13N to 20N between 58W and Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 54W and 70W.

[stormlover2013]

Euro is weaker this run

[Cpv17]

Carib Cruiser?

This would suggest the GFS is more right over the Euro about the more southern track and would result in the storm getting further west into the Gulf.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro largely gave up the ghost. Very weak now.

[SFLcane]

Euro drops development lol...not looking forward to possible rainy weekend. If that

[Cpv17]

The 12Z Euro largely gave up the ghost. Very weak now.

That’s due to more land interaction through 72 hours, I believe. Caving towards GFS with the track over land?

[Steve]

The 12Z Euro largely gave up the ghost. Very weak now.

It's got something in the Bahamian Kingdom at 120 hours on the low-level (850mb vort, wind MSLP).



144 hours it's over Tampa/St. Pete. Not much but definitely a wave (actually some anti-cyclonic turning at 144) with some low level vorticity.

[moja.ram]

Greetings. I'm new to the website and have been reading this thread. I'm suppose to travel to Havana, Cuba this Saturday and returning Tuesday afternoon; should I be concerned? I see people are split on if this could form into anything or not based on the models. NHC.NOAA does not show any tropic disturbance in that area (at least yet), although there is one near Africa, I think (correct me if I'm wrong) but if that does form and happens to head towards Cuba it would arrive after Tues.

[ronjon]

Beginning to think nothing will develop from this wave with lack of other model support other than Euro. I mean even the crazy uncle Canadian doesn't develop it.

This. Agree 100%

Canadian has missed smaller storms before, and the GFS has a weak signature (the model that refuses to develop anything that there's an actual seedling to until 2-3 days before) and the FV3 now develops it as well. And the two models that don't actually develop it are the ones most excessively bullish with upper troughs in general (and they don't develop them as a result of one).

Good discussion. My main point was the lack of model consensus. it's pretty rare for the Euro to be out on its own with genesis. With the GFS parallel seeming to come on board, maybe a few other models will start trending that way the next few days. it's really hard to say something will develop without model consensus - and let's face it, the odds are stacked against development most times as very few distrubances actually become tropical cyclones.

[ronjon]

deleted double post

[MississippiWx]

Euro drops development lol...not looking forward to possible rainy weekend. If that

Hasn’t dropped development yet. There are other states west of Florida on the other side of the Gulf.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro largely gave up the ghost. Very weak now.

That’s due to more land interaction through 72 hours, I believe. Caving towards GFS with the track over land?

No, I don't think it is due to more land interaction. Yes, it is further south but it is close to where it was 2 runs ago, when it developed it strongly.

[Cpv17]

The weaker this storm stays, the better chance it has at getting into the western Gulf and if it does that then Texas folks need to watch out.

[Steve]

Greetings. I'm new to the website and have been reading this thread. I'm suppose to travel to Havana, Cuba this Saturday and returning Tuesday afternoon; should I be concerned? I see people are split on if this could form into anything or not based on the models. NHC.NOAA does not show any tropic disturbance in that area (at least yet), although there is one near Africa, I think (correct me if I'm wrong) but if that does form and happens to head towards Cuba it would arrive after Tues.

Euro has it farther north in that time frame. You'd probably see some showers and maybe some gusty winds, but this doesn't look like a scenario where Cuba is faced with anything strong. It would appear that if this ever gets going, it would be west of 90W. If it comes in farther east (e.g. 00Z EC into the FL Panhandle), it would be farther north to begin with. JMO

[Steve]

Euro drops development lol...not looking forward to possible rainy weekend. If that

Hasn’t dropped development yet. There are other states west of Florida on the other side of the Gulf.

hahaha. Ain't that the truth. Anyway, here's the ECMWF 850 at 168 hours so valid for next Wednesday at 7:00am. Definitely getting stronger and more consolidated each 12 hour run.

[cycloneye]

Euro tracks it thru FLA Penninsula and that delays any development.

[MississippiWx]

Euro tracks it thru FLA Penninsula and that delays any development.

Models often overestimate the effect Florida has on a tropical system. If it’s a tropical low in its infant stages, the friction of land could actually help consolidate the low.