Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Steve]

[quote="Cpv17"]18z GFS has the max vorticity going into the San Antonio Bay area late next week. This would bring a lot of rain to SETX and probably Louisiana as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... .png/quote]

Yeah, it looks like Portland/Corpus Christi area on the 18z.

[NDG]

A few ULLs retrograding westward across the Atlantic and across the GOM over the next 7-10 days, if this tropical wave finds the sweet spot in between ULLs it will develop but if it gets too close to an ULL the harder it will be for it to do much. I am now thinking that development will be later than sooner, there's a secondary piece of energy following this TW that may help get it going later on time.

[Twisted-core]

Suspect it approaches as a curved band and become a td in GOM



https://imgur.com/4U82nA0


https://imgur.com/OyJG4rE

Wet and maybe torn warnings.


https://imgur.com/qTrBnXn

[otowntiger]

I wouldn’t be so quick to write this off in the Gulf. First off the 12z Euro once again sends it quickly into the SE Louisiana coast right as it gets going, it also looks to keep a well-defined signature as it heads west inland towards SE Texas. Secondly the Instability in the Gulf has been above average since the beginning of May. Then there is the warm mid-upper 80’s bath water (SST’s) that are currently present. So that leaves limited time over water and wind shear as the two possible inhibitors.

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1034827423244857344

In terms of negatives Wind Shear is the top dog though. Without favorable shear environments these systems struggle to get going. It is what tears apart storms. June in the GOM the past decade is a good example of this. All the warmest waters and instability in the world cannot overcome shear issues. It is still 5 days away so shear forecasts could be off by quite a bit I am sure, but if shear is high this system will struggle to get to TS strength. IMHO.

. Well said and very true! Wind shear and/or the lack thereof seem to be the single biggest factor in development.

[Steve]

Definitely a good point, but sometimes shear is required for later developing (western) systems. You also see that sometimes in May and June in the Eastern Gulf. 18z FV3 does nothing with it and just keeps tropical moisture pumping into the Gulf. Tonight’s runs will be inside 8 days for the north Gulf (based on the 12z EC) and possibly around 10 if it ends up being a Texas system. Euro has been persistent with a wnw heading though it has fluctuated between SELA and NWFL. GFS has alternated between some development and nothing and has oscillated betweeen TX and LA in runs it showed development.

I think the major models will show by tomorrow’s 12z runs (00z Friday at the latest) if this will be making a run for something in the Western Atlantic. We will probably have to wait until Sunday or Monday as far as a closing game for the Gulf. But I’ll say if the EC keeps showing development and landfall over the next 3-4 runs, it’s quite possibly right.

[cycloneye]

00z surface analysis has wave axis around 63W-64W.

[MississippiWx]

The 18z GEFS ensembles were a lot more aggressive in developing a tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Several members show a tropical storm. I thought the rather significant jump in ensembles developing the system further east was interesting.

[floridasun78]

i got feeling going only tropical wave going gave fl and gulf coast rain

[Cpv17]

The 18z GEFS ensembles were a lot more aggressive in developing a tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Several members show a tropical storm. I thought the rather significant jump in ensembles developing the system further east was interesting.

The faster this disturbance organizes, the further east it’ll go. If it doesn’t organize fast then it probably will go towards the west Gulf and organize there as it moves into Texas.

[Steve]

GFS isn’t doing much with either system. It propagates the gulf moisture west but doesn’t organize and had a concentrated area of convection cross the FL Straits which levels off west and appears to be heading toward south Texas. It’s not closed off at 90W so there is a benchmark to 168 hours. However by 180 hours (valid for 7 am next Thursday (8.5 days), it’s got a 1010 mb low depicted SSW of Houma, LA. 186 it’s moving west possibly toward the central TX coast. Recall the VF3 had a hook north toward Cameron Parish, LA so that could still potentially happen on this run.

[Cpv17]

Vorticity stronger on the 0z GFS compared to the 18z as it moves towards Texas.

[Cpv17]

1005 mb as it moves ashore just south of Corpus on the 0z. Probably a weak tropical storm.

[Steve]

Landfall south of Corpus Christi next Friday as a weak low (TD/TS)

[Cpv17]

Big block to the north. Nowhere to go but west.

[cycloneye]

First run from GFS that has a TD/weak TS.

[SoupBone]

First run from GFS that has a TD/weak TS.

Damn, that's just north of west heading into the GoM. Is the high going to be that stout? Looks like it parks over most of Texas too, sending into the south section of the state.

[Cpv17]

First run from GFS that has a TD/weak TS.

Damn, that's just north of west heading into the GoM. Is the high going to be that stout? Looks like it parks over most of Texas too, sending into the south section of the state.

That’s a lot of rain right there.

[Steve]

CMC and FV3 are stuck on tt so I’m going to bed. I’ll probably wake up in the middle of the night to catch the EC.

[Cpv17]

CMC and FV3 are stuck on tt so I’m going to bed. I’ll probably wake up in the middle of the night to catch the EC.

CMC has it, but it’s really weak.

[Brent]

Euro looks to be around New Orleans at 168, pretty weak