Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Siker]

Euro looks to be around New Orleans at 168, pretty weak

Weak TS at 1006mb, stronger than the 12z.

[cycloneye]

00z Euro has a TD/weak TS tracking to Louisiana.

[Dylan]

Looks like a lopsided tropical storm with landfall near the Louisiana and Mississippi border. Tropical storm force gusts from Pensacola to the extreme eastern Louisiana parishes.

[Cpv17]

GFS has the ridge a lot stronger, hence the further west movement. GFS sends this to S TX and Euro into LA/MS.

[stormlover2013]

Euro has it tracking more north than the gfs, gfs has more south Florida, so wherever the low forms will be key, the more south like gfs I could see stronger system having more time over water the more north I can see euro but still long ways out with 7-8 days left

[Cpv17]

Euro has it tracking more north than the gfs, gfs has more south Florida, so wherever the low forms will be key, the more south like gfs I could see stronger system having more time over water the more north I can see euro but still long ways out with 7-8 days left

The wnw to nw movement the Euro is depicting with this storm seems fishy to me. The movement over the Gulf right now is from east to west and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.

[Hammy]

We now have agreement between the GFS and Euro, so we should start seeing mention in the TWO by the end of the week.

[jlauderdal]

Euro has it tracking more north than the gfs, gfs has more south Florida, so wherever the low forms will be key, the more south like gfs I could see stronger system having more time over water the more north I can see euro but still long ways out with 7-8 days left

The wnw to nw movement the Euro is depicting with this storm seems fishy to me. The movement over the Gulf right now is from east to west and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.

where do you live?

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has it as a TD and tracks to South Texas.

[stormlover2013]

Any gfs and euro ensembles this morning

[NDG]

UL divergence is bringing this tropical wave alive this morning with convection, in a high shear environment for now.

[cycloneye]

NDG,if you look closely,a faint S shape is seen.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 850mb vort this morning is weaker, more elongated, and further south than yesterday. Not sure what would shunt that energy north of Hispaniola/Cuba.

[NDG]

The 850mb vort this morning is weaker, more elongated, and further south than yesterday. Not sure what would shunt that energy north of Hispaniola/Cuba.

I think is the energy NE of PR on the northern end of the TW that will take over, the weak vorticity south of Hispaniola will continue to weaken as it moves westward fast across the Caribbean Sea.

[SFLcane]

Active TW for sure this morning...

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
A tropical wave In NE Caribbean will be warily monitored as it comes west.

Its interaction w/ the PV streamer is key. Such interactions can organize convection & lead to genesis (e.g. Rita '05), but can also shear the wave. EC has a weaker PV streamer and/or more convection

[cycloneye]

For sure a wet day in PR and adyacent islands. As I made this post is was raining heavy with thunder.

[slamdaddy]

On average the Gulf Of Mexico 26C (79F) water temperature goes down to an average of 200ft. There are pockets that go down deeper and pockets that are not as deep. But 200ft looks to be about the average.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1atd26.png

[Blown Away]

Active TW for sure this morning...

Wow, Puerto Rico in the eye of the TW...

[slamdaddy]

On average the Gulf Of Mexico 26C (79F) water temperature goes down to an average of 200ft. There are pockets that go down deeper and pockets that are not as deep. But 200ft looks to be about the average.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1atd26.png

Sea SUFACE Temps (SST) are running around 28C-30C (83F-86F). I believe SURFACE temps are defined as down to a depth of 30ft.