#33 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:11 pm
This is still a broad mess at the moment and I doubt it will be able to organize into a tropical depression by tonight as the NHC forecasts suggests. However, POTC 6 should be able to consolidate a well defined LLC by tomorrow, and will probably be named Florence some time tomorrow as well. It should gradually strengthen for about 48-72 hours, possibly reaching minimal hurricane intensity before encountering SSTs below 26C early next week, which should level off intensification or perhaps weaken the storm a little. In about a week or so, POTC 6 should move over warmer waters once again over the subtropical Atlantic, and it will probably peak in intensity around that time. IMO, it's highly unlikely this becomes a Category 4 or 5, the much recent GFS run seems much more realistic with regards to its intensity.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at
http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.