Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Blown Away]

Disturbed for sure.

[ronjon]

Looks to be an ULL in the central Bahamas inducing shear on the TW now. Not sure where that ULL is forecast to go or whether it will dissipate the next 3-5 days.

[ronjon]

06z GFS shear forecast looks pretty excessive up until next wednesday morning where a brief window of lower shear opens in the eastern GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=shear&runtime=2018083006&fh=150

[NDG]

On average the Gulf Of Mexico 26C (79F) water temperature goes down to an average of 200ft. There are pockets that go down deeper and pockets that are not as deep. But 200ft looks to be about the average.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1atd26.png

Sea SUFACE Temps (SST) are running around 28C-30C (83F-86F). I believe SURFACE temps are defined as down to a depth of 30ft.

The depth of warm SSTs does not matter much when a tropical system is moving and not stalled, a good example is the EPAC, look how shallow the warm SSTs are north of the 10th latitude compared to the Caribbean but yet all the Cat 3-5 hurricanes that have tracked in that area.

[NDG]

06z GFS shear forecast looks pretty excessive up until next wednesday morning where a brief window of lower shear opens in the eastern GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=shear&runtime=2018083006&fh=150

This is the reason why the GFS is less aggressive compared to the Euro in the short term.

[wxGuy]

plenty hot for Tropical cyclogenesis

[cycloneye]

12z surface analysis has wave axis west of PR now in eastern Hispañola but the trailing moisture is plenty as seen in radar.

[cycloneye]

Ramsdis floater now has the wave.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1035186342425231361

[MississippiWx]

Ramsdis floater now has the wave.

Looking much more impressive today. The divergence from the TUTT is helping get convection going which could help to sharpen the wave axis.

[ronjon]

I would think NHC would mention this wave in the next TWO and start giving it low chances for development in the next 5 days.

[Siker]

GFS has notably more vorticity at 850mb through 96 hours.

[Bocadude85]

GFS has notably more vorticity at 850mb through 96 hours.

I was just about to post the same thing, this is the first time the GFS actually shows increasing vorticity in the Bahamas

[NDG]

GFS has notably more vorticity at 850mb through 96 hours.

It is, getting closer to the Euro's runs compared to previous runs.

[NDG]

You can see how much more vorticity the 12z GFS is now showing over the FL straights compared to the last couple of days.

[ronjon]

Looks like GFS playing catch up to the Euro again. Jeff Masters blog from yesterday on this wave. Makes a point about the "heat island" eddys in the GOM that could lead to rapid development.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Tropical-Wave-Near-Puerto-Rico-Gulf-Mexico-Threat-Next-Week

[MississippiWx]

You can see how much more vorticity the 12z GFS is now showing over the FL straights compared to the last couple of days.

Yeah, the GFS made a jump to the Euro, but it doesn’t develop the system.

[ronjon]

GFS forecasting too much shear to develop in GOM - big difference between Euro and GFS now.

[MississippiWx]

GFS forecasting too much shear to develop in GOM - big difference between Euro and GFS now.

GFS actually shows a pocket of lighter shear following the system once in the Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

GFS showing the vort going into Nola like the Euro. Certainly looks wet for the northern gulf coast