Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Dylan]

The GFS continues to show less than optimal upper level conditions for this tropical disturbance as it moves into the Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico. If the GFS is right, this thing looks to get squeezed in the upper levels, and will have a tough time getting ventilated. European UL environment isn’t great either, but not as hostile.

For any meaningful development to occur, this will have to find the “sweet spot” as NDG previously mentioned. We won’t know until these differences are resolved.

[jasons2k]

GFS showing the vort going into Nola like the Euro. Certainly looks wet for the northern gulf coast

Nothing is certain just yet. The next set of runs could easily shift back to South Texas...

[PSUHiker31]

I guess the GFS is up to last year's tricks again. Drops development of the wave again after having it for a few more runs. Also notice that 06L is much weaker this run as well after being consistently much stronger.

Something in the GFS is hot garbage.

[Steve]

GFS showing the vort going into Nola like the Euro. Certainly looks wet for the northern gulf coast

Nothing is certain just yet. The next set of runs could easily shift back to South Texas...

Certainly true as it has oscillated between the two areas over the last few days. But the ECMWF has been fairly consistent with showing exactly what the GFS is now showing except crossing Florida rather than the Florida Straits and more defined/stronger. These are the last 6 runs:

08/30 00z - SE LA
08/29 12z - SE LA
08/29 00z - FL/AL Border
08/28 12z - SE LA
08/28 00z - SE LA (strongest of the runs)
08/27 12z - Matagorda Bay, TX

[Javlin]

06zGFS=Central TX
12zGFS= S of NO
06zNavGem=Tx/LA @180hr to fast
00zEuro=Boot LA

as like any system wait and see got to get to that 5day window.

watching the Mimic if this is the flow pattern for awhile NGOM looks to stay wet and pouch we are watching is growing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[moja.ram]

Can anyone send me that Euro link to see the direction of this animal? I'm interested to see how this will affect Cuba this weekend. I only know about the NOAA hurricane graphical tropical outlook. starting to think I should cancel my visit

[stormlover2013]

8 days out lol, well all know things can change fast, a model is never consistent 8 days out more like 3 days out

[Steve]

Can anyone send me that Euro link to see the direction of this animal? I'm interested to see how this will affect Cuba this weekend. I only know about the NOAA hurricane graphical tropical outlook. starting to think I should cancel my visit

It's not much, because I don't have access to the professional products that they charge for, and you only get basic overview in 12 hour increments on Tropical Tidbits. But it's something. It probably rains most every day in the summer on Cuba anyway, and this doesn't really look like it has any major implications for there. It's a passing tropical wave or area of low pressure without being much at that point. The 00z doesn't even affect Cuba as it shoots across South Florida on a WNW heading which it does not deviate from. Now if you were going to Dallas next weekend, I'd probably say it's going to rain there more from this than in Cuba based on the European.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3000&fh=18

--------------------------------------
Lower level view

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3000&fh=24

[moja.ram]

Can anyone send me that Euro link to see the direction of this animal? I'm interested to see how this will affect Cuba this weekend. I only know about the NOAA hurricane graphical tropical outlook. starting to think I should cancel my visit

It's not much, because I don't have access to the professional products that they charge for, and you only get basic overview in 12 hour increments on Tropical Tidbits. But it's something. It probably rains most every day in the summer on Cuba anyway, and this doesn't really look like it has any major implications for there. It's a passing tropical wave or area of low pressure without being much at that point. The 00z doesn't even affect Cuba as it shoots across South Florida on a WNW heading which it does not deviate from. Now if you were going to Dallas next weekend, I'd probably say it's going to rain there more from this than in Cuba based on the European.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3000&fh=18

--------------------------------------
Lower level view

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3000&fh=24

Thank you brother! I'll be in Houston next weekend. ... Thanks for sharing the website/info, im a newbie but find all this interesting .. must of read the whole thread and few others. Lot's of smart ppl here.

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea
and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is forecast to spread
westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent any significant development of this system
during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Regardless of development, this system could
produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[NDG]

It finally gets a mention on TWO by the NHC.

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: It finally gets a mention on TWO by the NHC.

They must really believe it isn't going to amount to much, at least not within that 5-day window, or we would have gotten more than just that mention so far.

[Hurricaneman]

3 of the 20 GFS ensemble develop a depression near the Florida peninsula even the NHC is saying there’s a 10% chance so while not likely it can’t be ruled out completely but this has a real chance in the GOM and wouldn’t even rule out a hurricane anywhere from Pensacola to Brownsville but as of now I’m not expecting anything above a mid range tropical storm

[psyclone]

I can see the edge of that fresh NHC lemon from my front door. I'm -removed- an offshore wind and gusty showers.

[stormlover2013]

they take that alot farther south then what models are showing

[Steve]

ECMWF is out to 48 hours. It's pretty close to the last run though there does show a 1020 high right over the system which didn't show last night. Here are the 48 hour runs (valid for Saturday morning 7:00am CDT).

12Z


00Z

[MississippiWx]

12z Euro a good bit weaker with the disturbance at 72 hours.

[Steve]

12z Euro a good bit weaker with the disturbance at 72 hours.

?

I don't see it on the generic stuff. If anything only the ridge in the Atlantic might be a little weaker. What are you seeing at 72 that's anything beyond vaguely being a similar run.

[stormlover2013]

Ridge is showing stronger on 96hours

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF has came in quite a bit weaker. Upper level conditions I am sure are the issue just like they are on the GFS. Plenty of time for things to change, but for now this looks to be a weak system at best. Land interaction and shear are hard to overcome.