Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[stormlover2013]

GFS is horrible it has the Vorticity going really north of florida on the East side.

[cycloneye]

Loop of wave shows a weak turning in the clouds north of Puerto Rico.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Bocadude85]

Loop of wave shows a weak turning in the clouds north of Puerto Rico.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Some decent spin north of 20N with some blossoming convection this morning. Looks like it could be a squally Labor Day here in Florida.

[wxman57]

Not very impressive on the TPW loop. Not what one would expect for a system that's going to develop. Most likely will track past FL and through the Gulf as a wave.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

[SFLcane]

Indeed we could see some squally rain bands during the holiday weekend for parts of south florida if it holds together...

[otowntiger]

Indeed we could see some squally rain bands during the holiday weekend for parts of south florida if it holds together...

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/20 ... rnerds.gif

.

There is not much there to “hold together”. Something needs to come together before anything holds together, lol!
N

[Siker]

On the end of the spectrum that disregards all recent trends, the 12z ICON makes this a major hurricane in the western Gulf somehow.

[stormlover2013]

On the end of the spectrum that disregards all recent trends, the 12z ICON makes this a major hurricane in the western Gulf somehow.

Send link

[toad strangler]

On the end of the spectrum that disregards all recent trends, the 12z ICON makes this a major hurricane in the western Gulf somehow.

lol ICON doesn't even show potential Florence

[Siker]

On the end of the spectrum that disregards all recent trends, the 12z ICON makes this a major hurricane in the western Gulf somehow.

Send link

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/ ... 0000z.html

[Siker]

On the end of the spectrum that disregards all recent trends, the 12z ICON makes this a major hurricane in the western Gulf somehow.

lol ICON doesn't even show potential Florence

It does, use weather.us under Global German Standard. Tropical Tidbits hasn’t been plotting the ICON for 2 weeks now.

[toad strangler]

On the end of the spectrum that disregards all recent trends, the 12z ICON makes this a major hurricane in the western Gulf somehow.

lol ICON doesn't even show potential Florence

It does, use weather.us under Global German Standard. Tropical Tidbits hasn’t been plotting the ICON for 2 weeks now.

word

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the reason for why this will not develop into anything likely.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here is the reason for why this will not develop into anything likely.

A yugggggggggge wall of shear awaits it lol. You never know though.

[stormlover2013]

U never know in the gulf, things can change quick

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say the blowup in the Gulf has a slightly better chance at development than this.

[SFLcane]

What I meant was if it doesn’t actually poof there is some scattered convection around that cyclonic spin north of Puerto Rico. Fortunately it’s upper level low heaven just to it’s east providing constant shear. Either way it will no doupt inhance rainfall across Florida.

[stormlover2013]

I don’t let my guard down Humberto, Harvey last year was done and conditions for favrorable in a hurry

[Aric Dunn]

With the divergent upper levels enhancing convection north of DR it is only a matter of time before we see some pressure falls. I have a feeling the models will swing back to their earlier runs from a few days ago as this convective mass continues to increase. Definitely needs to watched and would say it has a much higher chance than not. possibly even before the gulf.

And currently, the shear is what is helping it.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers extending from Hispaniola
northeastward to the adjacent Atlantic are associated with a
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This activity
is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward enhancing the
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will prevent any development of this system during
the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less
hostile when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.