Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[tropicwatch]

Looks like a decent rotation is beginning.

[MississippiWx]

Noticeable spin, probably in the 850mb level, just north of Western tip of the DR. This is the area to watch and see if it makes it down to the surface. While shear is high, it is very much diffluent and more than likely will aid in further development rather than deter it.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like a decent rotation is beginning.

Ha, good timing. Just posted about that, but you provided a beautiful gif.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully this will be tagged as 91L sometime today.

If the area of interest begins to show some signs of at least modest organization and the 12z package of the models turn even more bullish than 00z,then we will see Invest 91L this afternoon or tonight.

[Steve]

It looks like a case of pattern reversal there. Departing ULL builds anti-cyclone in its wake which then leads to intensification. It’s got my attention. I had to run errands this morning and picked up a few cases of water. beer, cigarettes, snacks and other provisions we might need next week. I’ll probably freeze a case of the waters to keep the refrigerator and freezer cool in the event of power outages. If the 00z ECMWF is right, we won’t have any power in metro New Orleans. Last time that happened was a few years ago with Hurricane Isaac where 99% of the city lost power (we were in a 2 block radius of Metairie that did not, so I got a taste of that 1% life.

Gotta get through whatever is currently stewing in the gulf. My street floods every time we get more than 2” of rain, so I’m wary of that. Also heading out to Grand Isle tonight where the action should be over the next 36 hours. We were supposed to go fishing and crabbing, but I think fishing will be out of the question with a likely SCA going up down there. For now it’s only a coastal flood advisory, so maybe it won’t be too bad if nothing crazy spins up. This thread has everything including a Great One reference and mention of CFHC (hello John & Mike C). The only thing missing is Rock breaking out a Dy-No-Mat reference. Haha. Lookin forward to the 12Z suites in a little while. We are in the 4-5 day range now, so I’m going to be watching like a hawk. So far only the NAM is out and it crosses FL farther north before hitting Louisiana. It will probably come around to whatever is gonna happen by tomorrow 12/18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90112&fh=0

[northjaxpro]

This in all likelihood will be labeled an invest very shortly. Conditions look good for development. We really have to monitor this very closely real soon!

[NDG]

Hopefully this will be tagged as 91L sometime today.

If the area of interest begins to show some signs of at least modest organization and the 12z package of the models turn even more bullish than 00z,then we will see Invest 91L this afternoon or tonight.

They are probably waiting for the 12z GFS to see if it comes on board with the Euro for them to classify it into 91L, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Another good sign Invest is comming soon.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25.5N 83.0W AT 03/18Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS
NEAR SUSPECT AREA IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DEPARTING KLAL AT 03/2000Z AND 04/0800Z.

[NDG]

The GFS has been having a difficult time forecasting the UL pattern near this area past its 48 hr forecast.

[psyclone]

When you see a persistent disturbance start to show primitive/formative banding and it's Sept 1...there's a good chance this is eventually a designated TC. we were going through the same thing 2 years ago right now with Hermine. it huffed and puffed all the way across the Atlantic as a mostly naked swirl before finally finding a favorable pocket and blossoming. At this point I suspect eventual development is more likely than not.

[MississippiWx]

12z GFS still isn’t buying into a stronger storm.

[Steve]

It isn’t. It’s got a 1012mb low heading for SELA at 66 hours. Pressure is falling a little but not much.

[AnnularCane]

Model intensity forecasts are kind of iffy though, aren't they?

[NDG]

12z GFS still isn’t buying into a stronger storm.

It keeps the UL trough much closer to the surface vorticity than what the Euro shows. Based on the difficulty it is having on forecasting the UL pattern past its 48 hrs I am dismissing the GFS, IMO.

[PSUHiker31]

Hispaniola doesn't have the same effects on tropical waves as organized storms. It's not going to rip it up... In fact, it can help spin up the vorticity.

[Steve]

Model intensity forecasts are kind of iffy though, aren't they?

Very much so. They get better the closer you get, but every season there seems to be a surprise one way or the other with intensity. It’s depiction is a low but very weak.

[MississippiWx]

12z GFS still isn’t buying into a stronger storm.

It keeps the UL trough much closer to the surface vorticity than what the Euro shows. Based on the difficulty it is having on forecasting the UL pattern past its 48 hrs I am dismissing the GFS, IMO.

Yeah, even now the UL isn’t really destroying the system...it’s helping it organize with convection.

[chaser1]

When you see a persistent disturbance start to show primitive/formative banding and it's Sept 1...there's a good chance this is eventually a designated TC. we were going through the same thing 2 years ago right now with Hermine. it huffed and puffed all the way across the Atlantic as a mostly naked swirl before finally finding a favorable pocket and blossoming. At this point I suspect eventual development is more likely than not.

I agree, however I think surface inflow has got to be the one most prohibitive element to it becoming better organized during the upcoming 24 hours. The mountainous terrain to it's south has got to be hindering it. Seems to me that it's just going to have to wait until putting a bit more real estate between itself and Northern Haiti/W. Cuba before better enabling itself to find improved surface convergence and pressures to finally begin to fall.

[JPmia]

Mountains affect the flow, shredder works in several ways..long live the shredder..we have seen systems slow and even stall down there, bounce on and off the coast..shredder has major effects

The #tropical wave being monitored for development has reorganized.. Was initially amidst broad area of low-mid level spin, then became more focused, then dispersed (why models were inconsistent?), now has consolidated and is headed toward #Florida and the #GulfOfMexico ...

http://i67.tinypic.com/a4pxt2.png

Not quite heading over the shredder, rather just north of it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Anyone getting that "K" storm/hurricane deja vu like I am? in terms of its approach to SoFla.

[jlauderdal]

When you see a persistent disturbance start to show primitive/formative banding and it's Sept 1...there's a good chance this is eventually a designated TC. we were going through the same thing 2 years ago right now with Hermine. it huffed and puffed all the way across the Atlantic as a mostly naked swirl before finally finding a favorable pocket and blossoming. At this point I suspect eventual development is more likely than not.

I agree, however I think surface inflow has got to be the one most prohibitive element to it becoming better organized during the upcoming 24 hours. The mountainous terrain to it's south has got to be hindering it. Seems to me that it's just going to have to wait until putting a bit more real estate between itself and Northern Haiti/W. Cuba before better enabling itself to find improved surface convergence and pressures to finally begin to fall.

Too much shear until the eastern gulf, hispanola not helping but its the shear for now

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk