Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[MississippiWx]

12z CMC still hanging onto a tropical storm in the Gulf. This time, it landfalls on the Tx/LA border.

[SoupBone]

When you see a persistent disturbance start to show primitive/formative banding and it's Sept 1...there's a good chance this is eventually a designated TC. we were going through the same thing 2 years ago right now with Hermine. it huffed and puffed all the way across the Atlantic as a mostly naked swirl before finally finding a favorable pocket and blossoming. At this point I suspect eventual development is more likely than not.

I agree, however I think surface inflow has got to be the one most prohibitive element to it becoming better organized during the upcoming 24 hours. The mountainous terrain to it's south has got to be hindering it. Seems to me that it's just going to have to wait until putting a bit more real estate between itself and Northern Haiti/W. Cuba before better enabling itself to find improved surface convergence and pressures to finally begin to fall.

Too much shear until the eastern gulf, hispanola not helping but its the shear for now

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

It's sitting right in a very small spot of neutral to favorable shear. I mean, it's a very small area.

[Steve]

GFS is farther east with its end game. It moves north along the LA/MS border (MS River) into eastern Arkansas and SE Missouri before encountering the front. This is a big change and goes opposite of what the Canadian is doing. It’s also much weaker than the Canadian due to the track.

[chaser1]

My guess is that what weak point of 500 m.b.- 850 m.b. rotation down there, is actually a bit west of those more favorable upper level conditions however. So essentially I think you've got near-term inflow issues along with near term upper level conditions as jlauderdal suggests as well. Both can be overcome but that'll take a little time to do

[MississippiWx]

Strange that we don’t have an invest tag. This has a 40% chance of development, and no invest? Would be nice to have the hurricane models to give us better insight.

[cycloneye]

Strange that we don’t have an invest tag. This has a 40% chance of development, and no invest? Would be nice to have the hurricane models to give us better insight.

Is comming very soon. I posted a great sign earlier.

[stormlover2013]

Icon has middle tx coast anyone have ukmet yet

[Clearcloudz]

12Z ICON rainfall totals if anyone wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-0000z.html

[HurricaneBrain]

CMC has a pretty decent tropical storm headed toward SETX/SWLA.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, strange this isn’t an Invest already with varying degree of development between the models. Would not take much sustained convection with the already apparent vorticity to get a closed Low at the surface IMO.

[Siker]

Icon has middle tx coast anyone have ukmet yet

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.6N 93.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 96 28.6N 93.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 06.09.2018 108 28.9N 94.0W 1007 34
1200UTC 06.09.2018 120 28.9N 95.4W 1004 38
0000UTC 07.09.2018 132 28.1N 96.8W 999 39
1200UTC 07.09.2018 144 27.2N 98.4W 994 34

[stormlover2013]

Icon has middle tx coast anyone have ukmet yet

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.6N 93.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 96 28.6N 93.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 06.09.2018 108 28.9N 94.0W 1007 34
1200UTC 06.09.2018 120 28.9N 95.4W 1004 38
0000UTC 07.09.2018 132 28.1N 96.8W 999 39
1200UTC 07.09.2018 144 27.2N 98.4W 994 34

What is it showing

[Steve]

UKMET sticks with the WSW to SW bend at the end to just SW of Corpus Christi. It’s a little weaker than it should be for a North Gulf runner though in this setup. Youd think 980s at least.

[Clearcloudz]

IMO the GFS has become a outlier at this point especially if the EURO comes in bullish in the 12Z run and also considering this event is a few days away with other models continuing to get on board with the EURO.

[cycloneye]

UKMET is on board with a TS and that is very important to have this model bullish.

[Steve]

UKMET is on board with a TS and that is very important to have this model bullish.

It’s paying lrak a visit on that run.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z UKMET for anyone that wants to see it.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

[Siker]

[tarheelprogrammer]

IMHO this might have the potential to blow up in the GOM now that shear looks to be weaker. If you look at satellite currently it looks like it is trying to wrap up some. It is doing a good job of this for now. Getting an eerie feeling about this one.

[Ptarmigan]

I see an Invest with this one.