Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Steve]

Got to 120 and the system is up near DeRidder, LA. That’s about 228 miles different from the UKMET if my calculations are close. Also, here is the timeframe:

1) TS hit on LA late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
2) north of Lake Charles Thursday am
3) over Houston Friday morning
4) Bearing Down on Corpus Christi Saturday am.

[stormlover2013]

CMC,euro, icon, ukmet, pretty close gfs is outlier

[jlauderdal]

Starting to see a trend here as the models try and resolve the strength of the Mid Latitude Ridge. Seeing multiple runs from various model solutions except for the GFS showing a turn back W and WSW. That should raise an eyebrow.

Stout ridge in place...gfs tends to erode the ridging too fast..west of new orleans mire likely than east

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[Cpv17]

Starting to see a trend here as the models try and resolve the strength of the Mid Latitude Ridge. Seeing multiple runs from various model solutions except for the GFS showing a turn back W and WSW. That should raise an eyebrow.

Stout ridge in place...gfs tends to erode the ridging too fast..west of new orleans mire likely than east

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

GFS is prone to doing this, correct?

[Clearcloudz]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals for anyone that wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

[tarheelprogrammer]

Satellite continues to look quite good. Spin is becoming better and better. Could be a TD tonight. Should be an invest IMHO. NHC knows better though.

[SoupBone]

Unless I'm misreading the chart, the EURO precipitation forecast has decreased significantly. What am I missing?

[Clearcloudz]

Unless I'm misreading the chart, the EURO precipitation forecast has decreased significantly. What am I missing?

Its still running, its only up to 192 right now on that chart.

[sphelps8681]

CMC has a pretty decent tropical storm headed toward SETX/SWLA.

When is this going to take place?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting to note some of the Euro ensembles are actually showing this system stalling off the coast and then drifting SW. The 12z ECMWF hints at this a bit, showing the system moving parallel along the coastline.

[Steve]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals for anyone that wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

Thanks. Baton Rouge and Houston are both in the 12-15” accumulations with that.

[SoupBone]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals for anyone that wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

Thanks. Baton Rouge and Houston are both in the 12-15” accumulations with that.

After Harvey, we know those numbers are at least manageable, but still not good. How accurate have precipitation forecasts been? I remember Harvey being off by 20+ inches, as in it was forecast for 30 and ended up being much higher.

BTW, I'm now taking wxman's lack of comments to be a bad thing. he's probably super busy working, and this thing could impact his area.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals for anyone that wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

Thanks. Baton Rouge and Houston are both in the 12-15” accumulations with that.

Several places are over 20 inches on hour 228 including Houston.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180911-0000z.html

[Steve]

CMC has a pretty decent tropical storm headed toward SETX/SWLA.

When is this going to take place?

It’s the Canadian which is sketchy so keep that in mind. But it’s at 96 hours (valid for Wednesday at 7am). That’s abiut 175-200 miles farther west than the European.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0112&fh=96

[Steve]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals for anyone that wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

Thanks. Baton Rouge and Houston are both in the 12-15” accumulations with that.

After Harvey, we know those numbers are at least manageable, but still not good. How accurate have precipitation forecasts been? I remember Harvey being off by 20+ inches, as in it was forecast for 30 and ended up being much higher.

BTW, I'm now taking wxman's lack of comments to be a bad thing. he's probably super busy working, and this thing could impact his area.

Not sure Soup. I don’t usually have access to better graphics (gotta start using weather.us more) to have a point of reference. But having glanced at the next post where apparently multiple locations show 20+ is bad.

[BobHarlem]

The way the Euro slows way down over Texas is concerning, San Antonio/Austin get a huge deluge out of that.

[SoupBone]

The way the Euro slows way down over Texas is concerning, San Antonio/Austin get a huge deluge out of that.

San Antonio already had huge issues with flooding. They are worse than Houston even ('I'm pretty sure). That's why Harvey could have been much worse, in that it was originally showing it meandering that way and dumping on them too.

[Steve]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals for anyone that wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

Thanks. Baton Rouge and Houston are both in the 12-15” accumulations with that.

Several places are over 20 inches on hour 228 including Houston.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180911-0000z.html

That’s not good. I remember even like LaGrange flooded during Harvey as the river was over its banks. Note that patch just to the east of San Antonio. Looks bad for that area. Looks like the system gets trapped in Texas and might have to rain itself out if it doesn’t find an alley or doesn’t get pushed farther south. Crazy.

[catskillfire51]

The bad part about where I live in Brazoria County, TX is all the rain W/Nw of us drains to the Brazos river. That is what flooded where I live because the water had no place to go.

[SoupBone]

Thanks. Baton Rouge and Houston are both in the 12-15” accumulations with that.

Several places are over 20 inches on hour 228 including Houston.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180911-0000z.html

That’s not good. I remember even like LaGrange flooded during Harvey as the river was over its banks. Note that patch just to the east of San Antonio. Looks bad for that area. Looks like the system gets trapped in Texas and might have to rain itself out if it doesn’t find an alley or doesn’t get pushed farther south. Crazy.

Most of the state is currently in a drought and could really use some rain. But not that much.

Feast or famine.