Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Clearcloudz]

Several places are over 20 inches on hour 228 including Houston.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180911-0000z.html

That’s not good. I remember even like LaGrange flooded during Harvey as the river was over its banks. Note that patch just to the east of San Antonio. Looks bad for that area. Looks like the system gets trapped in Texas and might have to rain itself out if it doesn’t find an alley or doesn’t get pushed farther south. Crazy.

Most of the state is currently in a drought and could really use some rain. But not that much.

Feast or famine.

[img]http://i63.tinypic.com/dokitw.png[/i mg]

Hour 240 showing a large area between san antonio and austin approaching 30 inches. One key thing to take away from this is the last 2 runs on EURO is showing a flood event shaping up.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/20 ... 1200z.html

[Haris]

27" and MORE at my house in Austin!!! DAMNNN

[SoupBone]

I guess this is technically -removed-, so feel free to pile on me for it, but I hope the GFS wins this one. Texas does not need Harvey: Part Deux

[Pearl River]

I hope the pumps in NOLA work!! 7-8" where I work at would not be fun. I know it's not the 20+ that you guys in Texas and Baton Rouge could get, but the city floods quickly.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the lower shear area is trying to nose down into the Bahamas:

[Dylan]

12z EURO ensembles are rolling out now. Clustered near SE Louisiana on Wednesday morning.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan has a video about this wave and more but the second part (Around 3:00 minutes) is about this one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... next-week/

[oldframe]

Levi Cowan has a video about this wave and more but the second part (Around 3:00 minutes) is about this one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... next-week/

I was just resetting my password to post this video! I trust Levi's analyses of these complicated patterns more than any other! He and Eric Berger are my primary information sources for tropical weather and general texas gulf coast weather, respectively.

[Portastorm]

Thanks. Baton Rouge and Houston are both in the 12-15” accumulations with that.

Several places are over 20 inches on hour 228 including Houston.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180911-0000z.html

That’s not good. I remember even like LaGrange flooded during Harvey as the river was over its banks. Note that patch just to the east of San Antonio. Looks bad for that area. Looks like the system gets trapped in Texas and might have to rain itself out if it doesn’t find an alley or doesn’t get pushed farther south. Crazy.

Hey Steve, when I told you to send it west ... I didn’t mean 2 feet of rain. You don’t need to be that generous.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z ECMWF Ensemble Models link.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018090112-240.html

[stormlover2013]

So da, what do u think is going to happen? Is the gfs really the outlier ?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So da, what do u think is going to happen? Is the gfs really the outlier ?

Looks like a solid chance of a moderate-strong TS. GFS looks to have a poor handle on this system's genesis.

[otowntiger]

Levi Cowan has a video about this wave and more but the second part (Around 3:00 minutes) is about this one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... next-week/

Levi definitely is the voice of reason. In sum he sounds pretty certain that Florence stays weak and stays out to sea, the wave north of Hispañola won’t have a lot of time to develop and when it does it won’t develop much. Rain of course can be an issue, but sounds like that’s about it.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z ECMWF Ensemble Models link.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018090112-240.html

quite a few members turn west and wsw before landfall in LA.. and are stronger.
actually looks like the majority of the members turn before LA

[Cpv17]

12Z ECMWF Ensemble Models link.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018090112-240.html

Those are scary for Texas.

[SoupBone]

Levi Cowan has a video about this wave and more but the second part (Around 3:00 minutes) is about this one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... next-week/

Levi definitely is the voice of reason. In sum he sounds pretty certain that Florence stays weak and stays out to sea, the wave north of Hispañola won’t have a lot of time to develop and when it does it won’t develop much. Rain of course can be an issue, but sounds like that’s about it.

He's very monotone, which is a good thing when discussing potential systems that can affect millions of people. He's very good.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z ECMWF Ensemble Models link.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018090112-240.html

quite a few members turn west and wsw before landfall in LA

I wouldn't be surprised if on the 00Z run we start seeing a stronger run towards texas the ensembles are showing it dragging along the coast while operational wants to take it into New Orleans.

[Aric Dunn]

by the way. i know its the nam.. but it too has genesis in 24 hours or less.

[chaser1]

If I only had one drone and could send it to investigate one small particular area of interest for tropical development, i'd send it off to Great Inagua

[Aric Dunn]

If I only had one drone and could send it to investigate one small particular area of interest for tropical development, i'd send it off to Great Inagua

And call it the "The West Wind Finder " lol