Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[chaser1]

If I only had one drone and could send it to investigate one small particular area of interest for tropical development, i'd send it off to Great Inagua

And call it the "The West Wind Finder " lol

Exactly

[chaser1]

I'm guessing NHC will up their percentages to 20/50? If it were my call, I'd probably go with 30%/50%

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC has to get up from CFB opening Saturday...

This continues to look better on ramsdis. That, along with ECMWF’s persistence on this closing off in the Florida straits is keeping me (ever so slightly, since this will just be a rain event for SFL) concerned this can catch people off guard on Labor Day.

That locked Future 91L Recon thread is irritating me right now.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC has to get up from CFB opening Saturday...

This continues to look better on ramsdis. That, along with ECMWF’s persistence on this closing off in the Florida straits is keeping me (ever so slightly, since this will just be a rain event for SFL) concerned this can catch people off guard on Labor Day.

That locked Future 91L Recon thread is irritating me right now.

according to the Euro they might fly sooner than monday.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

The mesoscale models show genesis from 24 to 30 hours.

near Grand Bahama

[Cpv17]

I see we have another GFS vs Euro battle on our hands lol what a surprise

[AnnularCane]

I see we have another GFS vs Euro battle on our hands lol what a surprise

Those two models have been driving me nuts since last Christmas.

[Evil Jeremy]

I see we have another GFS vs Euro battle on our hands lol what a surprise

Those two models have been driving me nuts since last Christmas.

Last Christmas? I've been ticked off at these folks for not getting along since Debby. The prior one.

[stormlover2013]

I don’t think it’s a battle, cmc,euro, ukmet, icon vs gfs = has loss for gfs it’s clueless and the nam is

[tropicwatch]

Kind of interesting, the naval base at gitmo is reporting N to NW winds and a pressure of 29.86 and the Bights Settlements in the Turks are reporting east winds 20-30mph with gusts to 43.

[LeonardRay]

Local Houston Met Brooks Garner uploaded a video discussion



https://youtu.be/6sx-oJuMmis

[Aric Dunn]

Kind of interesting, the naval base at gitmo is reporting N to NW winds and a pressure of 29.86 and the Bights Settlements in the Turks are reporting east winds 20-30mph with gusts to 43.

I have been watching an area just off the coast of Cuba.. showing some weak signs low level turning.

[mcheer23]

NWS Houston is favoring the EURO model at this time.

[jlauderdal]

Battling for years, they see the atmosphere differently and thats not bad, they both get wins but euro definitely more wins beyond 3 days

I see we have another GFS vs Euro battle on our hands lol what a surprise

Those two models have been driving me nuts since last Christmas.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[jlauderdal]

Kind of interesting, the naval base at gitmo is reporting N to NW winds and a pressure of 29.86 and the Bights Settlements in the Turks are reporting east winds 20-30mph with gusts to 43.

That gitmo reading seems odd considering the ridge in place

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[LeonardRay]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Subsidence was stronger than anticipated late this morning and
early this afternoon but now storms begging to fire up along the
seabreeze. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
and expand slowly northwestward the remainder of the afternoon.
Brief heavy downpours possible along with lightning threat through
early evening. Plume of deep tropical moisture 2.2-2.4" PW over
the northwest Gulf should spread into the region Sunday afternoon.
So expect a lull late evening in convection with skies clearing
somewhat tonight. Then after midnight storms redevelop over the
Gulf and spread into the coast in the morning hours...expanding
inland in the afternoon. Heavy rainfall threat should increase
Sunday afternoon. This moisture will stall over the region Monday
and as upper levels become more favorable (and possibly some weak
low level circulations forming in the Gulf) will see a window
Sunday night through Monday evening for more heavy downpours with
scattered to numerous storms. At this point it looks like the
areas from Edna to Conroe to Groveton southeastward to greatest
threat near the coast. Confidence increasing for a flash flood
watch being needed Monday.


Tuesday through Thursday could see something of lull in the
intensity of rainfall over SETX with slightly drier air spreading
in late Tuesday. But the area of disturbed weather over the
Bahamas will be moving northwest and could be moving into the
warm eastern Gulf with the potential for development.

Friday and beyond...this tropical disturbance (NHC-40 percenter
for development) could turn more westward. Have favored the ECMWF
solution which paints a much wetter solutions over SETX as the
system behaves as a brown water inland development/organization
system over LA/SETX (tap of 2.2-2.5" PW feeding it from the Gulf)
...drifting slowly westward bringing copious rainfall to the
region over a 3+ day period. Stay tuned we are nearing the
climatological peak of hurricane season.

[Evil Jeremy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
418 PM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR LABOR DAY...

A strong tropical wave over the southern Bahamas will be moving
west northwest and through South Florida on Labor Day. This strong
wave will bring deep moisture to the area leading to the
potential of heavy rainfall across South Florida on Labor Day.
The east coast metropolitan areas appear to be at higher risk for
the heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected across South Florida at this time with the higher amounts
over the eastern areas. Any thunderstorms that do train over the
region will lead to much higher amounts, and this will be where
flooding is mostly likely to occur.

This heavy rainfall potential for Labor Day will be closely
watched, and if current trends hold a Flood Watch may need to be
considered for at least parts of South Florida for Sunday Night
into Labor Day.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90118&fh=0

[Aric Dunn]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090118&fh=0

a little closer up.. shows closed isobars in 14 hours..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0118&fh=54

[mcheer23]

18z GFS may finally be coming around