Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is stronger.

[floridasun78]

18z GFS may finally be coming around

look td cross south fl

[Steve]

a hair slower at 60 hours and a hair SSE.

Same at 72 hours but GFs isn’t showing much.

Ditto 78 but a hair SE now.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[Frank P]

a hair slower at 60 hours and a hair SSE.

Same at 72 hours but GFs isn’t showing much.

Ditto 78 but a hair SE now.

Seems to me somewhat stronger at 78H

[Cpv17]

GFS is looking like it wants to send this into Mississippi

[chaser1]

18z GFS may finally be coming around

look td cross south fl

huh? Not that I can see. Not unless you might be looking at some 850mb or different resolution map then I'm looking at. I don't see the GFS actually closing off any low as this wave moves through S. Florida. Best I can tell, it still looks like a fairly sharp trough.

[Frank P]

GFS is looking like it wants to send this into Mississippi

I think I see 45mph wind barbs at 78H...

[Frank P]

Definitely stronger than previous run at 84H... looks like the MS/LA line, pretty small system with most of the weather on the MS Coast...

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is with the nam, we all know how bad the nam is

[cycloneye]

[chaser1]

18z GFS may finally be coming around

look td cross south fl

huh? Not that I can see. Not unless you might be looking at some 850mb or different resolution map then I'm looking at. I don't see the GFS actually closing off any low as this wave moves through S. Florida. Best I can tell, it still looks like a fairly sharp trough.

Of course, a lot of S. Florida may very well get "tropical depression - like" conditions though.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is definitely stronger than 12z

[mcheer23]

18z GFS is definitely stronger than 12z

For sure, now to see if it gets picked up....or follows the EURO and turns west into Texas.

[Steve]

In SELA at 84. This has been the EC’s solution until it pulled a little west. Let’s see if it hooks up and out as it’s been showing or if it joins the boomerang shaped track of several other models.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is definitely stronger than 12z

Agreed 100%.

[Cpv17]

In SELA at 84. This has been the EC’s solution until it pulled a little west. Let’s see if it hooks up and out as it’s been showing or if it joins the boomerang shaped track of several other models.

I don’t see it bending back west like other models have it. Probably will move up and out like it’s been showing

[Steve]

In SELA at 84. This has been the EC’s solution until it pulled a little west. Let’s see if it hooks up and out as it’s been showing or if it joins the boomerang shaped track of several other models.

I don’t see it bending back west like other models have it. Probably will move up and out like it’s been showing

Some changes. Now it goes up through Mississippi and starts bending over toward Arkansas which it enters on a NW heading.

[Cpv17]

I’m sorry GFS, but your solution isn’t making any sense. Let’s just move directly north into a strong high pressure dropping down from the N. Plains..really?