Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[tolakram]

18Z GFS run

[cycloneye]

My guess is NHC will raise the 8 PM TWO to 20%/50%. We shall see.

[tolakram]

SLIDER:
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10880&y=6283&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[SoupBone]

I’m sorry GFS, but your solution isn’t making any sense. Let’s just move directly north into a strong high pressure dropping down from the N. Plains..really?

Or that high never really makes it that far south. Are there any particular models that are responsible for this? If not, which model out of the GFS and Euro better perform with these highs? If I remember, doesn't the Euro tend to exaggerate the highs, while the GFS doesn't pronounce them enough? If so, why not take a blend of the two.

[Cpv17]

I’m sorry GFS, but your solution isn’t making any sense. Let’s just move directly north into a strong high pressure dropping down from the N. Plains..really?

Or that high never really makes it that far south. Are there any particular models that are responsible for this? If not, which model out of the GFS and Euro better perform with these highs? If I remember, doesn't the Euro tend to exaggerate the highs, while the GFS doesn't pronounce them enough? If so, why not take a blend of the two.

Could be true, but doesn’t the Euro perform better with steering past 3 days over the GFS?

[Bocadude85]

I am wondering if this will develop a little sooner then the models indicate, perhaps get a weak TS moving through S.Fla.

[Clearcloudz]

I am wondering if this will develop a little sooner then the models indicate, perhaps get a weak TS moving through S.Fla.

18Z RGEM high resolution model does show a depression or tropical storm as it passes the keys. Pressure drops to 999 at hour 54.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=ir&runtime=2018090118&fh=54

[SoupBone]

As we're losing visible, anyone notice this?

[NDG]

I’m sorry GFS, but your solution isn’t making any sense. Let’s just move directly north into a strong high pressure dropping down from the N. Plains..really?

Or that high never really makes it that far south. Are there any particular models that are responsible for this? If not, which model out of the GFS and Euro better perform with these highs? If I remember, doesn't the Euro tend to exaggerate the highs, while the GFS doesn't pronounce them enough? If so, why not take a blend of the two.

Could be true, but doesn’t the Euro perform better with steering past 3 days over the GFS?

Not sure if this will be the case but the GFS was right biased with the hurricanes near Hawaii. I don’t trust it past 3 days but I wish I could trust the Euro up to 7 days like I did back in ‘08.

[Aric Dunn]

As we're losing visible, anyone notice this?

wow yeah there appears to a giant floating Arrow ! lol

[Evil Jeremy]

My guess is NHC will raise the 8 PM TWO to 20%/50%. We shall see.

At minimum. Given the model support and organization today, I think the NHC also needs to expand their GTWO bubble to cover SFL. I know the graphic is arbitrary, but it might give some people who stumble upon it & don't read the text a false impression that SFL will see no impacts.

[SoupBone]

As we're losing visible, anyone notice this?

wow yeah there appears to a giant floating Arrow ! lol

I would animate it, and have it dancing around that flareup, but I'm just not that skilled.

[Aric Dunn]

As we're losing visible, anyone notice this?

wow yeah there appears to a giant floating Arrow ! lol

I would animate it, and have it dancing around that flareup, but I'm just not that skilled.

[Cpv17]

We have 50 pages on a wave that’s not even an invest yet

[Airboy]

I think the switch turned on now.

[cycloneye]

50 pages this thread has but is not close to the record as the 2010 thread for system that developed into Earl had 67 pages. (Page 33 of this Talking Tropics forum) This one will not reach that simply because it will be locked very soon.

[blp]

As we're losing visible, anyone notice this?

I see it SoupBone Hot tower right over a developing center
that is stacking. The 850, 700 & 500 vortcities are aligned right over it now. This is ramping up quickly and models might be under doing the intensity. We know with small systems they can ramp up fast.

850


700


500

[SoupBone]

As we're losing visible, anyone notice this?

I see it SoupBone Hot tower right over a developing center
that is stacking. The 850, 700 & 500 vortcities are aligned right over it now. This is ramping up quickly and models might be under doing the intensity. We know with small systems they can ramp up fast.

PopKern [Engaged] Off

[cycloneye]

20%/50%

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Who predicted 20/50?