Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Evil Jeremy]

Floater loop. Looks like the spin is getting going with convection all around it. Is it me or does the shear not look that bad?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

If I'm reading the CIMSS charts right, Absurdly-Pre-91L has been dealing with 15-20kts of shear throughout the day. Not nothing, but not outrageous. We've seen storms slowly organize under similar shear before.

[Blown Away]

Invest Status has to be coming soon??

[Nimbus]

Invest Status has to be coming soon??

The morning visible imagery may show the partially exposed low level center in which case they might pull the trigger at 11 am. Lots of shear but the moisture level is fairly high all the way into the gulf.

[Evil Jeremy]

Invest Status has to be coming soon??

That's been the thought process since sunrise.

Invest Status has to be coming soon??

The morning visible imagery may show the partially exposed low level center in which case they might pull the trigger at 11 am. Lots of shear but the moisture level is fairly high all the way into the gulf.

That's a bit higher than the barrier for invest.

[eastcoastFL]

Whenever we get these weaker td or ts across S. Fl they always seem to come with endless tornado warnings.

Are you able to see rotation in thunderstorms when they are still over the ocean as a part of a wave like this ?

So far local weather talks about possible flooding for the eastern areas but no mention of possible tornadoes yet. But Id be shocked if this system crossed the peninsula and didn't trigger any tornado warnings.

[eastcoastFL]

Invest Status has to be coming soon??

The morning visible imagery may show the partially exposed low level center in which case they might pull the trigger at 11 am. Lots of shear but the moisture level is fairly high all the way into the gulf.

They've already mentioned a possible P3 flight do to an invest so think its already in the works but just not publicly classified as such yet.

[tgenius]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat from 2005 where she was a wave in the Bahamas and we ended up getting hit by a cat1 storm? Not of course thinking of a hurricane but even a named ts

[Clearcloudz]

The tropical wave in the Bahamas that is headed for the Gulf is a little better defined this evening based on visible satellite. Increasing thunderstorms and more distinct twisting. #tropics #91L soon?

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1036059558295363585

[HurricaneEric]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat from 2005 where she was a wave in the Bahamas and we ended up getting hit by a cat1 storm? Not of course thinking of a hurricane but even a named ts

Yeah I can’t help but think this too. For reference, here’s Katrina’s track.

Katrina became a TD just about the same spot... that’s concerning if this TW finds a break from wind shear from here to SFL and beyond..


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[Clearcloudz]

Lets say if it were to be a stronger system like cat 1 entering into the gulf, my question is in terms of the track with a deepening system would it go further west. How would it affect the track with the current upper dynamics?

[wxmann_91]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat

No.

[HurricaneEric]

Lets say if it were to be a stronger system like cat 1 entering into the gulf, my question is in terms of the track with a deepening system would it go further west. How would it affect the track with the current upper dynamics?

I also should’ve mentioned that, just off the top of my head, I think Katrina from the South Bahama islands to SFL was moving at a slower pace than what this wave is forecasted to move at.


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[tgenius]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat

No.

Deff not -removed-. Hell I still have a tarp on my roof from Irma!

[sphelps8681]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat from 2005 where she was a wave in the Bahamas and we ended up getting hit by a cat1 storm? Not of course thinking of a hurricane but even a named ts

Yeah I can’t help but think this too. For reference, here’s Katrina’s track.

Katrina became a TD just about the same spot... that’s concerning if this TW finds a break from wind shear from here to SFL and beyond..


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Rita had a similar track.

[alienstorm]

Earth Wind has a closed circulation over Great Inagua

[cycloneye]

[Steve]

Lets say if it were to be a stronger system like cat 1 entering into the gulf, my question is in terms of the track with a deepening system would it go further west. How would it affect the track with the current upper dynamics?

I think they need to do (and release) more sampling before you can really say one way or the other. Because it’s liable to be moving fairly quickly WNW/NW across the Gulf, it’s probably just going to ride the edge of the ridge for the first 30-36 hours in the Gulf. But will it put up or repel from resistance if it’s strongerremains to be seen. Ridge is strong and will get stronger, but how is it exactly aligned and all and what the actual height lines are remains to be seen

[HurricaneBelle]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat from 2005 where she was a wave in the Bahamas and we ended up getting hit by a cat1 storm? Not of course thinking of a hurricane but even a named ts

Why stop at Katrina? This is forming in the same area as the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane!

[SoupBone]

Latest and greatest shear map.

[gatorcane]

Latest shear map, doesn’t look that bad near Inagua island where the LLC may be trying to form, 15 knots of shear:.

Definitely not as bad as what the GFS showed days ago for this time.