ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Possible missions for Monday afternoon and evening from Air Force and NOAA P-3.

A. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25.5N 83.0W AT 03/18Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS
NEAR SUSPECT AREA IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DEPARTING KLAL AT 03/2000Z AND 04/0800Z.

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2018090112, , BEST, 0, 198N, 713W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 91, 2018090118, , BEST, 0, 203N, 724W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 91, 2018090200, , BEST, 0, 208N, 734W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 91, 2018090206, , BEST, 0, 213N, 745W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 91, 2018090212, , BEST, 0, 218N, 755W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, al732018 to al912018,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area since it was in West Africa.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119772

Post away.

[tolakram]

The Storm2K map is broken, before anyone asks. NOAA discontinued (or broke) a product for the Atlantic that was used to update the storm positions.

[cycloneye]

There were questions about when the wave was going to be tagged and I posted that first they do tests and in this case since Saturday morning at 12z as 73L that have been testing until now.

genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, al732018 to al912018,

[tolakram]

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6914&y=6253&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

COD: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[SFLcane]

Flaring up nicely this morning nearing the Bahamas..

[drezee]

Brought this post over:
I want to be clear. I have read comments about not having a high ceiling. Although not an ideal setup for RI, the pattern is loaded. You only need 24 hrs of a RI setup. Models (even the Euro) can miss it even 36 hours out. The players are on the field. Outflow jets if properly aligned, relaxing shear, moist column, tons of CAPE, and 30C+ SSTs. This should not be over hyped. It should also not he downplayed. Facts are above...so be prepared and hope for the best.

GCANE good point. A robust CDO turns that upper low into an outflow jet. It is not synoptic shear...

[Blinhart]

Brought this post over:
I want to be clear. I have read comments about not having a high ceiling. Although not an ideal setup for RI, the pattern is loaded. You only need 24 hrs of a RI setup. Models (even the Euro) can miss it even 36 hours out. The players are on the field. Outflow jets if properly aligned, relaxing shear, moist column, tons of CAPE, and 30C+ SSTs. This should not be over hyped. It should also not he downplayed. Facts are above...so be prepared and hope for the best.

GCANE good point. A robust CDO turns that upper low into an outflow jet. It is not synoptic shear...

So the ULL that is over the coast of Louisiana could help fuel this system, is that what you are getting at?

[NDG]

I am starting to see the first signs of a low level circulation trying to get going but the most noticeable one is still in the mid levels around h70 to the east of the surface trough, shear has clearly decreased over it, now lets see if the deep convection helps build an anticyclone close to it.

[hipshot]

What happened to Florence or is this Florence re-incarnated?

[tolakram]

What happened to Florence or is this Florence re-incarnated?

Florence is in the eastern Atlantic.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119804&p=2696891#p2696891

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1036227182425776128

[jasons2k]

It was on the previous thread, but most of the European ensembles were south and west of the operational. Same with the CMC. I think the track and ultimate intensity of this storm is still very uncertain. Lots of moving parts. I would not want to be on the hook to basically have to choose NOLA or Houston with this one.

[drezee]

I am starting to see the first signs of a low level circulation trying to get going but the most noticeable one is still in the mid levels around h70 to the east of the surface trough, shear has clearly decreased over it, now lets see if the deep convection helps build an anticyclone

I'm like in 90% agreement with you. The only difference is that I see it be elongated west to east. That MLC you have circle is the eastern envelope of the low. I'm afraid 91L's LLC will form there due to feedback and convection. If it does, then it is go for launch. Our hope is that the western envelope closes first. This would be a tilted mess. Convection is over the eastern...my guess is we start ramp in 12 hrs to the coast...

[Frank P]

From what I've look at this morning the majority of the models with the exception of 2 or 3 (one being the mighty EURO), have this system going inland somewhere between SELA and the AL coastal areas... of course all that is subject to change over time... just an observation from my perspective... as always every storm usually has some kind of surprise ahead for us, be it intensity or final destination... and why we love tracking em…

[NDG]

I am starting to see the first signs of a low level circulation trying to get going but the most noticeable one is still in the mid levels around h70 to the east of the surface trough, shear has clearly decreased over it, now lets see if the deep convection helps build an anticyclone

I'm like in 90% agreement with you. The only difference is that I see it be elongated west to east. That MLC you have circle is the eastern envelope of the low. I'm afraid 91L's LLC will form there due to feedback and convection. If it does, then it is go for launch. Our hope is that the western envelope closes first. This would be a tilted mess. Convection is over the eastern...my guess is we start ramp in 12 hrs to the coast...

Yeah, the NHC has the 12z best track near the MLC so this is where they think the surface circulation will eventually form which is what the Euro has been showing as it reaches the Keys tonight/tomorrow morning.

[SFLcane]

Hey NDG, any thoughts on this wave developing a bit more then expected before reaching SFL? It’s really flaring up nicely this morning it’s got about a 24hr window it’s also moving very slowly.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-14-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[hurricaneCW]

I'd be nervous about this one,it could really blow up in a hurry once it enters the gulf, hopefully it's no more than a TS.

[Evil Jeremy]

91L putting together a very rugged version of what you might call the 'comma look'

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ater_2.gif

[ronjon]

Hey NDG, any thoughts on this wave developing a bit more then expected before reaching SFL? It’s really flaring up nicely this morning it’s got about a 24hr window it’s also moving very slowly.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-14-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Some of the mesoscale models like NAM 3k, WRF, and RGEM develop low pressure between Andros and S FL and then essentially strengthen it from there. They are also a bit more northward in track and llc development. Not sure it means much, but the local scale models are bullish on quicker development.