ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[drezee]

As I look over other similar scenarios, I think of Hurricane Erin from 1995. Similar setup but likely not as developed so quickly. It should ramp to the coast like Erin. Maybe some land interactions with FL...

[NDG]

Windshear continues to drop over 91L!!!!

[NDG]

Vorticity & organization is increasing this morning by the minute.

[drezee]

Vorticity & organization is increasing this morning by the minute.

NDG, you beat me to the post...this is not looking good. Organizing quickly...

[tgenius]

Hopefully doesn’t develop or if it does stays weak. One of those homegrown systems would catch a lot of people off guard especially on the holiday weekend.

[toad strangler]

[jaguars_22]

What if this does blow up quick what does the path do?? And what happened to mid Texas coast path? I’m looking to be ok w latest models

[Ian2401]

Cue the vorticity map!

[SoupBone]

So what am I missing as to why the GFS seems to be being under-considered at this point? There's a huge split between the Euro and GFS.

[SoupBone]

Wind shear in front of this system is still pretty stout (30-40kts). Shear around the system is favorable.

[Javlin]

What if this does blow up quick what does the path do?? And what happened to mid Texas coast path? I’m looking to be ok w latest models

General rule of thumb better develop a system is = a more poleward movement ...it will feel the ridge.

[toad strangler]

[jaguars_22]

Ok thanks javelin. So this is more and more not a Texas issue

[Portastorm]

What if this does blow up quick what does the path do?? And what happened to mid Texas coast path? I’m looking to be ok w latest models

Speaking generally, less developed systems are more prone to be influenced by the tropical easterlies (they would tend to move more west than north). Better developed systems are more prone to be influenced by the westerlies (meaning more north and east as compared to west). As of now, most of the model guidance shows SE Louisiana as the highest risk for landfall of whatever develops. But it is still waaaay early. Yes, the idea of a direct hit on the middle Texas coast has diminished for now but a number of ensemble members still show that possibility. Long story short ... it's watch and wait time. Until a real center of circulation develops, all of the model guidance is guessing at what might happen.

[NDG]

So what am I missing as to why the GFS seems to be being under-considered at this point? There's a huge split between the Euro and GFS.

Very simple, it has been playing catch up with the Euro all this time, just a day-two ago was showing no development at all.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This would be one of those situations where having reliable obs from Cuba would be nice, that way we could discern any westerlies.

[NDG]

http://i68.tinypic.com/x10mfn.gif

Wind shear in front of this system is still pretty stout (30-40kts). Shear around the system is favorable.

It will move out of the way as the UL trough keeps digging to the SW into the NW Caribbean, very clearly shown by the models now withing their short range forecast which are fairly good.

[jaguars_22]

Question since it looks like the upper level low over Texas right now is not moving quickly would make this storm turn more north... blocking Texas.. what happened to the high pressure building in forcing west

[psyclone]

70%+ rain chances over much of the florida peninsula tomorrow might yield a Labor day washout for some. After an extremely wet end to August, many rivers in west central Florida are already in flood and we are waterlogged.

[SunnyThoughts]

Any mention as to whether recon is considering going out tomorrow if things continue to organize? Guess they will probably monitor throughout the day and make a decision later this aternoon as to whether to schedule a mission tomorrow. Just a guess on my part though. Hate for them to work on a holiday, but if it continues to organize throughout the day...might be necessary.