ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[JarrodB]

I bartend at an outside bar in Key West. It looks like I will be wearing rain boots and my fouly on Tuesday. Even if the system gets named before it gets here, all I expext is rain and a little wind. If named it will mean a bunch of hype.

That said, when this thing makes it to the gulf, I do think there is potential for some RI.

[Clearcloudz]

We could see some advisories posted for southern Florida from the NHC as soon as this evening.

Organization is increasing with #91L this morning by the minute. We could have a depression within 24 hours if this continues.

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1036254444441280512

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely can see mid-level turning developing on satellite.

[drezee]

Vorticity & organization is increasing this morning by the minute.

NDG, you beat me to the post...this is not looking good. Organizing quickly...

NDG, this is deja vu to the conversation on 8/23/17 on Harvey. I'm not saying it will bv e anything like Harvey. We were having bv the same posts about organizing by the min...and models playing catch up. No good

[drezee]

Euro may also have to play catch up to itself...it showed a cat 1 earlier. It may have to come back to more intensity. Not the first time...

[jlauderdal]

Looks decent on satellite but what's happening in the mid and lower levels is the key at this point

Definitely can see mid-level turning developing on satellite.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Clearcloudz]

A lot of people on the other forum starting writing off this storm as soon as the operational run came in for the 00Z EURO based off 1 run and these runs are based in the percentages of different scenarios on the ensemble spread. The 12Z run could easily come back stronger.

[Ian2401]

Where is the center of circulation being pinpointed at right now? I see a lot of broad mid level rotation, but if an LLC were to develop, where are we thinking that it would develop?

[tropicwatch]

91L becoming a good looking system.

[SoupBone]

So what am I missing as to why the GFS seems to be being under-considered at this point? There's a huge split between the Euro and GFS.

Very simple, it has been playing catch up with the Euro all this time, just a day-two ago was showing no development at all.

Thanks NDG, I'm asking more about the hook NE vs meandering around the coast toward Texas. This seems to be the biggest ? at the moment.

[MGC]

I think the Euro is closing 91L off too quickly. I don't see closed isobars till 91L gets into the GOM. Does appear to have a decent MLC setting up but should take some time to reach the surface....MGC

[GeneratorPower]

Needs more recon, baby.

[RL3AO]

Looks like a developing TC to me. Give it another day or three.

[SoupBone]

Looks like a developing TC to me. Give it another day or three.

Tongue in cheek? 3 days it's inland, or close to it.

[tgenius]

I’ll be very curious to see the 2pm TWO to see if they bump up that 30 percent.

[psyclone]

This system has the right look at the right time of the year. It's always amazing how stuff snaps together under less than perfect conditions at peak season and is another good reminder to disregard long term model solutions showing zip during peak season...something almost always slips past the goalie. I continue to think the odds favor an eventual TS out of this. Hopefully it moves along and is a "fun" storm for whoever eventually gets it

[cycloneye]

I’ll be very curious to see the 2pm TWO to see if they bump up that 30 percent.

Is now at 50% in 2 days.

[tgenius]

I’ll be very curious to see the 2pm TWO to see if they bump up that 30 percent.

Is now at 50% in 2 days.

Ok Luis. Sorry hadn’t seen it since last night.

[HurricaneEric]

Agreed this looks better organized (at least in the mid levels). That being said, I have a question for some of the pro Mets or experts on here: what is the usual time table for mid level organization to transfer down to the surface?

Of course, this is under the assumption that a system finds a favorable pocket of atmospheric conditions as 91L seems to have had here...

[Shell Mound]

I think the Euro is closing 91L off too quickly. I don't see closed isobars till 91L gets into the GOM. Does appear to have a decent MLC setting up but should take some time to reach the surface....MGC

Respectfully, I disagree. Recent visible imagery suggests that a low-level centre is very close to formation, based on favourable and expanding anticyclonic outflow, along with ample low-level convergence. Additionally, the small size of the mid-level vortex is helping the system develop despite its proximity to the retrograding upper low. The shear vectors are actually venting 91L rather than shearing it at this time, and conditions will only improve later today and over the next several days. The compact size of the system and sufficiently moist conditions suggest that a depression or even a weak tropical storm could rapidly develop overnight and then intensify rapidly near/over the Keys and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Note that all the global models indicate that whatever forms will remain relatively compact, embedded in high environmental pressures, which could aid rapid intensification should an inner core develop at any point.