2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest Euro Ensembles
https://lab.weathermodels.com/

[drezee]

Couple ensembles turn future Gordon into a major...like I said..high ceiling

[Hurricaneman]

Couple ensembles turn future Gordon into a major...like I said..high ceiling

More likely to be Helene as the wave near Hispaniola is most likely to be Gordon

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has the westbound system weaker until day 10 when is a TD.

[rickybobby]

On wesh 2 they said Florida should keep an eye on the third wave coming off Africa. How do they know the first 2 won't be a problem for us and the third could be?

[robbielyn]

On wesh 2 they said Florida should keep an eye on the third wave coming off Africa. How do they know the first 2 won't be a problem for us and the third could be?

And how would they know it would develop and go there anyways that far out?

[AutoPenalti]

On wesh 2 they said Florida should keep an eye on the third wave coming off Africa. How do they know the first 2 won't be a problem for us and the third could be?

That's the 8th time in 2 seasons that I hear the same thing from the same guy. It needs to stop.

[chaser1]

On wesh 2 they said Florida should keep an eye on the third wave coming off Africa. How do they know the first 2 won't be a problem for us and the third could be?

Really LOL?? Funny, I live in the Orlando area as well and occasionally watch WESH 2 (if and when I bother to watch the local news). I'll have to catch the 11:00pm news and see if they repeat that long long long range prognostication I mean, there are long range broad based long range forecast tools that do look at large scale planetary atmospheric waves which may signal the synoptic patterns and their resulting impact to certain global regions where rising/sinking air or possibly increased hostile upper level winds may occur. Still, I find it practically comical to try and guess which tropical wave yet to move off the African coastline might pose the greatest risk to impact Florida or any distant region over 4,000 miles and over 2 weeks away. Reality is, it's Hurricane Season and naturally all of us that live on any island or land mass within a few hours distance from the coastline anywhere in the Caribbean, GOM, or North America know to keep our eyes and ears attuned to any approaching tropical area of disturbed weather. Even our 7-10 day long range global forecast tools have to be looked at with a grain of salt. The idea of really paying special attention to particular waves even beyond that time frame is fun for the sake of conversation but that's about it.

[cycloneye]

00z Euro is stronger with the system that emerges Africa on day 6.

[Hammy]

00z Euro is stronger with the system that emerges Africa on day 6.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/T5RP719.gif

Looks like it's stronger with the one behind Florence as well. Really reminds me of 1995-96 right now with these runs.

[SootyTern]

We might have stuff to track all month. Today's 00z GFS has a 997 mb storm just off Miami on Sept 18. 06z has 1005 mb over PBC.

[jlauderdal]

We might have stuff to track all month. Today's 00z GFS has a 997 mb storm just off Miami on Sept 18. 06z has 1005 mb over PBC.

Sept 18 should give the residents plenty of time to stock up...we had a very strong complex come through around 2 am

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[Hypercane_Kyle]

This a really awful 500mb height setup the 00z ECMWF is portraying; Florence goes west, and the storm in the MDR also forced westward.

[Hurricaneman]

This a really awful 500mb height setup the 00z ECMWF is portraying; Florence goes west, and the storm in the MDR also forced westward.

I’m thinking looking at the Euro and GFS the pattern is not too dissimilar so I’m thinking Florence recurves between Bermuda an the Eastern seaboard, future Gordon moves into the GOM and landfalls in New Orleans as a minimal hurricane and the current wave coming off of Africa eventually gets absorbed into the wave coming off in 5 days and tracks towards Florida but the wild card is a system near 30N 51W as the models have been off and on with development of that feature so it’s getting crazy out there.

Let’s hope the ridging pattern the models are showing doesn’t happens or there could be trouble

[StormingB81]

On wesh 2 they said Florida should keep an eye on the third wave coming off Africa. How do they know the first 2 won't be a problem for us and the third could be?

The same guy made a statement last year before Irma that we were safe and people were actually returning thier supplies they bought...

[BobHarlem]

Hour +372 on the 6Z GFS, no thanks.

[StormyWaters93]

Hour +372 on the 6Z GFS, no thanks.

Image? For those who are curious?

[toad strangler]

12z GFS has basically dropped development of waves behind Florence

[AutoPenalti]

GFS is so bi-polar sometimes, I swear.

[toad strangler]

GFS is so bi-polar sometimes, I swear.

Seriously, anyway the pattern is there, the ingredients are there. I'm not buying it.