ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[MississippiWx]

Cycloneye, you're a pro at the TWO's.

[Siker]

Appears to be a nice band wrapping in from the northeast.

[mcheer23]

Tropical Storm Watches....could be issued tonight hmm...That means a PTC advisory tonight.

[Evil Jeremy]

I would go with 70%/90%, and it's time to expand the GTWO bubble to include SFL.

my peeps in sofla on this board are gunning hard for that red circle to be overhead

I'm not -removed-. It's just what I perceive as common sense at this point, with a system quickly organizing with still a day of water ahead.

EDIT: The bubble has become a full-on cone, and extreme SFL is included. Good enough for me. Finally.

[MississippiWx]

Tropical Storm Watches....could be issued tonight hmm...That means a PTC advisory tonight.

They certainly beefed up the wording in that TWO. Particularly the part about upper level conditions becoming favorable.

[Aric Dunn]

and to think no one likes the Mesoscale models for TC genesis lol

[WeatherEmperor]

I would go with 70%/90%, and it's time to expand the GTWO bubble to include SFL.

Looks like they just did




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HurricaneBrain]

The circle also shifted away from the western GOM, which I think it should’ve done at the 8AM TWO.

[jlauderdal]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located
between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is gradually
becoming better organized, and upper-level winds are also becoming
more favorable. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys. The
system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Tuesday and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This system will produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. A
tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. For more information, see products from
your local weather forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Clearcloudz]

and to think no one likes the Mesoscale models for TC genesis lol

RGEM and WRF were showing something like this could happen.

[Aric Dunn]

A stronger system will likely have more of a westerly track.

[tarheelprogrammer]

A stronger system will likely have more of a westerly track.

Should pump up the ridge?

[BYG Jacob]

ASCAT scan shows a weak circulation on the south west edge.

Aric know his stuff

[MississippiWx]

This will likely be a tropical cyclone when it impacts the FL Keys and South Florida.

[jlauderdal]

and to think no one likes the Mesoscale models for TC genesis lol

so the globals haven't done well, time to look at the nam..the nam gets just enough wins to keep it in the game year to year, lets not get carried away though for future intense systems

[PSUHiker31]

I'm a bit disappointed that there wasn't a 12Z HWRF...unless I just can't find it. Guess I'll be waiting another model cycle for it.

[HurricaneBrain]

Would not be surprised at all if we get a special outlook this afternoon for a PTC. Too close to SOFLA not to...

[MGC]

MCL looks to be getting its act together this afternoon. Still think it will take a day or so for the surface reflection to develop.....MGC

[psyclone]

The fact that the development area is now no longer confined to the Gulf seems a bit of a hat tip to the apparent organization today. There is certainly some possibility that the system closes off before crossing south florida...which would necessitate TS warnings should that happen.

[jlauderdal]

I would go with 70%/90%, and it's time to expand the GTWO bubble to include SFL.

my peeps in sofla on this board are gunning hard for that red circle to be overhead

I'm not -removed-. It's just what I perceive as common sense at this point, with a system quickly organizing with still a day of water ahead.

EDIT: The bubble has become a full-on cone, and extreme SFL is included. Good enough for me. Finally.

you nailed it with your 2 pm prediction, good work...nhc had to do something based on the satellite presentation and shear dropping off, they should probably plan a mission for the straits tomorrow morning