ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

You hear anything from craig setzer?

nhc busy issuing Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 14 that their did now working on ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

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[HurricaneBrain]

I don’t understand at all why there aren’t at least watches issued for southern Florida when the NHC is forecasting TS Gordon ~50 miles west from land tomorrow afternoon...

[RL3AO]

It must be September. Four advisory packages issued by four different forecasters.

[galaxy401]

Surprised they didn't issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys since the forecast has it becoming a TS right when it passes the islands.

[RL3AO]

I don’t understand at all why there aren’t at least watches issued for southern Florida when the NHC is forecasting TS Gordon ~50 miles west from land tomorrow afternoon...

Because the current forecast has most of SFL with a less than 5% chance of TS winds. You could make an argument for the keys where the probs are in the 20 to 30% range, but I guess the NWS/NHC decided against it.

[MississippiWx]

The discussion was very interesting. The NHC believes conditions should be favorable for intensification all the way to landfall. Only light to possibly moderate shear. The 60mph was below SHIPS and LGEM data. Hurricane models will be ran tonight.

[jlauderdal]

You hear anything from craig setzer?

nhc busy issuing Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 14 that their did now working on ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

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yes

What did he say?

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[psyclone]

I don’t understand at all why there aren’t at least watches issued for southern Florida when the NHC is forecasting TS Gordon ~50 miles west from land tomorrow afternoon...

Per the wind probs graphic just issued the keys have a 1 in 5 chance of ts winds...and they have the highest probs in the state. they were correct not to issue headlines for FL as these are complacency builders. if things change warnings will go up.

[JtSmarts]

The discussion was very interesting. The NHC believes conditions should be favorable for intensification all the way to landfall. Only light to possibly moderate shear. The 60mph was below SHIPS and LGEM data. Hurricane models will be ran tonight.

Very interesting, right now they are thinking a peak of 65mph/55kts but seem to be hinting that something a little bit stronger is very possible.

[Aric Dunn]

The discussion was very interesting. The NHC believes conditions should be favorable for intensification all the way to landfall. Only light to possibly moderate shear. The 60mph was below SHIPS and LGEM data. Hurricane models will be ran tonight.

Very interesting, right now they are thinking a peak of 65mph/55kts but seem to be hinting that something a little bit stronger is very possible.

yeah with low shear the likely hood of stronger is definitely on their minds. they are well aware how poorly models do in situations like this.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I don’t understand at all why there aren’t at least watches issued for southern Florida when the NHC is forecasting TS Gordon ~50 miles west from land tomorrow afternoon...

Per the wind probs graphic just issued the keys have a 1 in 5 chance of ts winds...and they have the highest probs in the state. they were correct not to issue headlines for FL as these are complacency builders. if things change warnings will go up.

If this becomes anything close to gordon before 8am, you will see warnings go up.

[JarrodB]

Surprised they didn't issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys since the forecast has it becoming a TS right when it passes the islands.

If a watch or warning is issued, most of the charter boats can not take charters out because of insurance reasons.

At least this gives the charter boats a chance to make money tonight on a holiday weekend with a lot of tourists in town.

If the system deepends overnight, then I would expect a warning for us in the Florida Keys by the 5am.

We are already expecting a small craft advisory tomorrow.

[Blinhart]

I'm thinking this will be a much stronger system than many think. Just hoping it doesn't just come up to just South of New Orleans and then decide to move West and never come into land until Central Texas Coast.

[HurricaneBrain]

Watch/warning decisions are based off of the wind probabilities which I believe were far understated for SFL.

I don’t understand at all why there aren’t at least watches issued for southern Florida when the NHC is forecasting TS Gordon ~50 miles west from land tomorrow afternoon...

Per the wind probs graphic just issued the keys have a 1 in 5 chance of ts winds...and they have the highest probs in the state. they were correct not to issue headlines for FL as these are complacency builders. if things change warnings will go up.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the anticipated return of convection might start soon. the low level cloud deck has begun to thicken ...

[chaser1]

Looks like the anticipated return of convection might start soon. the low level cloud deck has begun to thicken ...

Gettin' out the popcorn for a satellite version of Tropical Creature Features nite

[SoupBone]

Looks like the anticipated return of convection might start soon. the low level cloud deck has begun to thicken ...

As the sun is setting, the popkern has begun popping. Does it look to be forming more SE of where it was?

Side Note: I see this under your name, as if it's your signature photo. Caught me off guard. Hint: It's a tshirt ad cleverly embedded within the site.

[psyclone]

Watch/warning decisions are based off of the wind probabilities which I believe were far understated for SFL.

I don’t understand at all why there aren’t at least watches issued for southern Florida when the NHC is forecasting TS Gordon ~50 miles west from land tomorrow afternoon...

Per the wind probs graphic just issued the keys have a 1 in 5 chance of ts winds...and they have the highest probs in the state. they were correct not to issue headlines for FL as these are complacency builders. if things change warnings will go up.

Why do you think they're understated? They seem reasonable to me. they depict a low (but not 0 chance). Just like a severe weather watch there needs to be a threshold of risk for an event otherwise the watch loses legitimacy due to overuse. It's interesting to ponder for sure but i personally prefer a higher bar. It will be interesting to see if someone gets a sustained gradient gale in the Keys. we'll know soon

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the anticipated return of convection might start soon. the low level cloud deck has begun to thicken ...

Gettin' out the popcorn for a satellite version of Tropical Creature Features nite

i know right.. I am going out tonight ( it is my Bday). but I am sure I will be up late once I get home later

[floridasun78]

i going out too i look update when i get home too