ATL: GORDON - Models

[mcheer23]

EURO still has a turn west....its just further north like 00z..near dallas.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[ScottNAtlanta]

euro weaker through 48hr....

Respectfully, do you know why? Current trends and conditions do not seem to support the EC...

On the other thread someone said the Euro probably initialized this too weak and that could be because of the compact size. Doesn’t mean the end result is necessarily wrong but it could certainly have implications on final intensity/landfall.

Both Euro and GFS initialized to weak. I could see this being a hurricane at landfall if the shear is low and it gets under the anticyclone some models forecast to form over the EGOM

[Bocadude85]

The 18z 3km NAM and RGEM are both stronger with the Florida landfall, I know they aren’t tropical models but still interesting.

[supercane4867]

The 18z 3km NAM and RGEM are both stronger with the Florida landfall, I know they aren’t tropical models but still interesting.

NAM is a joke with tropical cyclone. It blew up Alberto to a major in the Gulf.

[TorSkk]

Nam also made Chris a cat 5

[jlauderdal]

The 18z 3km NAM and RGEM are both stronger with the Florida landfall, I know they aren’t tropical models but still interesting.

NAM is a joke with tropical cyclone. It blew up Alberto to a major in the Gulf.

Dont look at nam for intensity, only for steering

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[MississippiWx]

18z GFS hardly makes this into a depression at peak “strength.” Never does consolidate the vort until right before landfall.

[Bocadude85]

The 18z 3km NAM and RGEM are both stronger with the Florida landfall, I know they aren’t tropical models but still interesting.

NAM is a joke with tropical cyclone. It blew up Alberto to a major in the Gulf.

Yes I am well aware that the NAM isn’t great with intensity forecasts.

[PSUHiker31]

The HWRF is about to initialize

[NDG]

Just 84 hrs ago the GFS didn't have anything with 91L, also notice the disturbance over the NW gulf coast. This is one of those systems that will have to be looked at an hour by hour and forget about the models.

[Blinhart]

And if this system decides to move just a little bit slower then that West turn will be much further South.

[MississippiWx]

Just 84 hrs ago the GFS didn't have anything with 91L, also notice the disturbance over the NW gulf coast. This is one of those systems that will have to be looked at an hour by hour and forget about the models.

Good post. Any time favorable conditions are present in September lookout.

[PSUHiker31]

HWRF showing a cat 1 south of Pensacola in the Gulf in 45 hours

[MississippiWx]

HWRF with a Cat 2 at 51 hours, moving NW towards Ms.

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF 981 mb @ 51 hours about due south of mobile bay headed towards miss/LA maybe? still good bit off the coast

[jlauderdal]

HWRF with a Cat 2 at 51 hours, moving NW towards Ms.

Hwrf usually good for at least two categories to the plus side

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[stormlover2013]

Hwrf is worse than the gfs lol

[tolakram]

HWRF run. Initializes the low over Cuba.

[cycloneye]

If it happens on real time,this model will be the king.