ATL: GORDON - Models

[jlauderdal]

Hwrf is worse than the gfs lol

For intensity it sure seems that way, once in a while it finds a good solution but so rare it has to be discounted bigly

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[MississippiWx]

HWRF with a Cat 2 at 51 hours, moving NW towards Ms.

Hwrf usually good for at least two categories to the plus side

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Usually, but the Euro showed this very same thing about 3 runs ago. It’s not totally out of the realm of possibilities for rapid intensification to occur. If that is to happen, this recent burst of convection needs to bring the circulation to the surface within the next 12 hours or so.

[PSUHiker31]

I suggest those trashing the HWRF on intensity go back and look at the forecasts for Harvey. For a good chunk of the extended short range the HWRF did a better job than the GFS and Euro at least showing that Harvey had the ability to organize into more than a strong tropical storm.

You have to look at HWRF intensity forecasts as potential especially since GFS/Euro don't have the resolution to capture the true strength.

[jlauderdal]

I suggest those trashing the HWRF on intensity go back and look at the forecasts for Harvey. For a good chunk of the extended short range the HWRF did a better job than the GFS and Euro at least showing that Harvey had the ability to organize into more than a strong tropical storm.

You have to look at HWRF intensity forecasts as potential especially since GFS/Euro don't have the resolution to capture the true strength.

It does get a win occasionally but typically it way over intensifies storms, i predict that's the case with this system

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[RL3AO]

When you figure that the absolute max wind the model shows is not realistic or representative and that a 982 mb storm would probably be a 65 to 70 kt 1-min wind. NHC is forecasting 50kt. Model is saying 65 to 70kt. It's probably wrong but it's not that unrealistic. Now if it was showing a 110 kt storm that would be different.

[Kingarabian]

Can't count any scenario out until it really is. HWRF is a good model but it's also hit or miss.

[USTropics]

HWRF is actually considered one of the top models for intensity guidance.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The Gulf of Mexico is so warm this year I can't see anything good occurring if this sucker gets in there. Hopefully, it'll encounter hostile upper-level conditions or ingest dry air. I don't even what to think about what could happen otherwise...

[SFLcane]

SFL would get some decent squalls if this HWRF pans out..

[gatorcane]

HRRR with a lot of rain for South Florida, maybe some tornado watches with those deep tropical squalls?

[Highteeld]

If it happens on real time,this model will be the king.

SHIPS seems to think it could happen

[stormlover2013]

What is interesting is the west movement into Texas

[Highteeld]

If it happens on real time,this model will be the king.

SHIPS seems to think it could happen

Corrected

[Bocadude85]

18z HWRF has a weak TS landfall in S.Fla... we have about 18-20 hours before potential landfall..we shall see if future Gordon develops prior to the gulf.

[jlauderdal]

If that intensity materializes it would be a huge win for the hwrf

18z HWRF has a weak TS landfall in S.Fla... we have about 18-20 hours before potential landfall..we shall see if future Gordon develops prior to the gulf.

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[chaser1]

If that intensity materializes it would be a huge win for the hwrf

18z HWRF has a weak TS landfall in S.Fla... we have about 18-20 hours before potential landfall..we shall see if future Gordon develops prior to the gulf.

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My perception of the HWRF is that it seems to be inconsistent and swing by wildly deepening a system for a run or two, and then swinging back to a much less intense model run, then back again. I wonder if that's just some off perception I have based on just those times I've focused on the model? Anyone else seem to have noticed similar run to run spreads?

[carolina_73]

The HWRF can do pretty good with small systems like this. Global models seem to struggle with smaller developing storms. When are the going to run the HMON?

[SunnyThoughts]

The HWRF can do pretty good with small systems like this. Global models seem to struggle with smaller developing storms. When are the going to run the HMON?

Been wondering about the HMON as well. NHC stated in their discussion that it would be ran along with the HWRF.

[SoupBone]

Does the 00Z GFS look like it was initialized way too far east?

[MississippiWx]

0z GFS still unimpressed. Not even sure it truly develops this into a tropical cyclone at all.