ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[SunnyThoughts]

And soo it begins... :p

By the way the mesoscale models have done far better than anything so far.

Been checking out the mesoscale models as well, not sure how good the Rgem is, but it has the storm farther east ..looks to be up Mobile bay.

[SoupBone]

As of the news this evening, NOLA is preparing for 3-5 inches of rain. Does that sound correct? 115 out of 120 pumps operational.

St. Tammany Parish will be distributing sand bags beginning at 8am tomorrow. Lafourche Parish has self-fill sandbags available tonight.

New Orleans is potentially going to see between 3-8" of rainfall, depending on the final track.

[ObsessedMiami]

Pretty good squall line out by Bimini headed to Broward/Dade showing up on MIA radar

That squall line is Filling in nicely over the Gulf Stream. Ought to be a humdinger around midnight or so in FLL/MIAMI

[tgenius]

Well for what it’s worth miami has been placed under a flood watch for the rain coming tomorrow.

[SootyTern]

Evening everyone, long time lurker I tend to just learn from everyone's posts. I have been transferred to Miami for my job and we're living in Davie, FL, inland Broward County. I'm getting excited as I enjoy the wonders mother nature can throw around. I have a question regarding the Hi-Res models, NAM and HRRR. I know they aren't the best when it comes to developing tropical systems, but are they pretty good with predicting the banding and storms that will be coming through? Thanks in advance!

I've seen the HRRR be very accurate with local rainfall forecasts in the summer at this close of a timeframe; I am definitely keeping an eye on it for this event

[Slughitter3]

Evening everyone, long time lurker I tend to just learn from everyone's posts. I have been transferred to Miami for my job and we're living in Davie, FL, inland Broward County. I'm getting excited as I enjoy the wonders mother nature can throw around. I have a question regarding the Hi-Res models, NAM and HRRR. I know they aren't the best when it comes to developing tropical systems, but are they pretty good with predicting the banding and storms that will be coming through? Thanks in advance!

I've seen the HRRR be very accurate with local rainfall forecasts in the summer at this close of a timeframe; I am definitely keeping an eye on it for this event

Thank you, I agree I'll be watching closely as well. It'll be interesting to see how the squall holds up as it comes ashore. Stay safe down there in Homestead.

[chaser1]

Evening everyone, long time lurker I tend to just learn from everyone's posts. I have been transferred to Miami for my job and we're living in Davie, FL, inland Broward County. I'm getting excited as I enjoy the wonders mother nature can throw around. I have a question regarding the Hi-Res models, NAM and HRRR. I know they aren't the best when it comes to developing tropical systems, but are they pretty good with predicting the banding and storms that will be coming through? Thanks in advance!

Welcome! So I understand you've been transferred to Miami? Sorry for your loss.... Just kidding, but couldn't help myself . I lived down there for most of my life and still visit family and friends there. I'm not particularly in the camp to consider using those tools for micro-scale anticipation of near-term tropical cyclone precip conditions mostly because I don't believe that they're able to properly translate rainfall rate "or intensity" to the extent that conditions may actually occur. Of course others here may feel different. Where I will glance at there hour by hour forecasts on occasion might be for the timing of cold fronts and their anticipated pre-frontal precipitation or squall line passage. I think those models can be sometimes useful in sniffing out non-tropical areas of low pressure that may form ahead and along early/late season cold fronts that at times get hung up across Florida early and late in the season. I think these models have proven useful for forecasting development and especially motion for those more 'hybrid" type sub-tropical systems that may try and spin up in the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

And soo it begins... :p

By the way the mesoscale models have done far better than anything so far.

Been checking out the mesoscale models as well, not sure how good the Rgem is, but it has the storm farther east ..looks to be up Mobile bay.

So, i would not suggest using the mesoscale models past 24 hrs. I was only mentioning the fact they have been out performing short term .

[MississippiWx]

Nice comma shape with seven tonight. This shape can often signal the strengthening of a system. Convection is taking off too.

[chaser1]

Potential Tropical Cyclone 7.... brought to you by "fans of the orange and blue" - go Gators!

On a more serious note, anyone see what I see????

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[tgenius]

Potential Tropical Cyclone 7.... brought to you by "fans of the orange and blue" - go Gators!

On a more serious note, anyone see what I see????

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Chaser, first go gators!

Second, that sure does look like an llc, but need visible in morning to know for sure.

[chaser1]

Now, that small apparent circulation moving away from west central Andros Island might just be the MLC but my guess is that it's actually the low level center (or at least one very near the surface).

[chaser1]

Potential Tropical Cyclone 7.... brought to you by "fans of the orange and blue" - go Gators!

On a more serious note, anyone see what I see????

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Chaser, first go gators!

Second, that sure does look like an llc, but need visible in morning to know for sure.

Visible sat for sure, OR for a couple thousand drunken passengers on Misery of the Seas to happen to sail on through there and provide NHC some handy ship's report

[stormhunter7]

Ship 9HXD9 is near COC and reporting 1014mb and ene 20. CoC should go over the ship in next few hours

[Slughitter3]

Evening everyone, long time lurker I tend to just learn from everyone's posts. I have been transferred to Miami for my job and we're living in Davie, FL, inland Broward County. I'm getting excited as I enjoy the wonders mother nature can throw around. I have a question regarding the Hi-Res models, NAM and HRRR. I know they aren't the best when it comes to developing tropical systems, but are they pretty good with predicting the banding and storms that will be coming through? Thanks in advance!

Welcome! So I understand you've been transferred to Miami? Sorry for your loss.... Just kidding, but couldn't help myself . I lived down there for most of my life and still visit family and friends there. I'm not particularly in the camp to consider using those tools for micro-scale anticipation of near-term tropical cyclone precip conditions mostly because I don't believe that they're able to properly translate rainfall rate "or intensity" to the extent that conditions may actually occur. Of course others here may feel different. Where I will glance at there hour by hour forecasts on occasion might be for the timing of cold fronts and their anticipated pre-frontal precipitation or squall line passage. I think those models can be sometimes useful in sniffing out non-tropical areas of low pressure that may form ahead and along early/late season cold fronts that at times get hung up across Florida early and late in the season. I think these models have proven useful for forecasting development and especially motion for those more 'hybrid" type sub-tropical systems that may try and spin up in the Gulf.

Chaser, the Coast Guard gave me this awesome opportunity lol. The family and I are really excited to be here. I love the weather (for the severe/tropical side), my wife loves the weather (Sunny and hot all the time). Thanks for the feedback regarding the models, I'll be sure to keep an eye on them as we get later in the season. Have a great night!

[wx98]

Could it be that this system moves too fast to really develop into something very significant? This will be on the Gulf Coast in around 48 hours, and these systems usually end of outrunning themselves

[toad strangler]

[chaser1]

Evening everyone, long time lurker I tend to just learn from everyone's posts. I have been transferred to Miami for my job and we're living in Davie, FL, inland Broward County. I'm getting excited as I enjoy the wonders mother nature can throw around. I have a question regarding the Hi-Res models, NAM and HRRR. I know they aren't the best when it comes to developing tropical systems, but are they pretty good with predicting the banding and storms that will be coming through? Thanks in advance!

Welcome! So I understand you've been transferred to Miami? Sorry for your loss.... Just kidding, but couldn't help myself . I lived down there for most of my life and still visit family and friends there. I'm not particularly in the camp to consider using those tools for micro-scale anticipation of near-term tropical cyclone precip conditions mostly because I don't believe that they're able to properly translate rainfall rate "or intensity" to the extent that conditions may actually occur. Of course others here may feel different. Where I will glance at there hour by hour forecasts on occasion might be for the timing of cold fronts and their anticipated pre-frontal precipitation or squall line passage. I think those models can be sometimes useful in sniffing out non-tropical areas of low pressure that may form ahead and along early/late season cold fronts that at times get hung up across Florida early and late in the season. I think these models have proven useful for forecasting development and especially motion for those more 'hybrid" type sub-tropical systems that may try and spin up in the Gulf.

Chaser, the Coast Guard gave me this awesome opportunity lol. The family and I are really excited to be here. I love the weather (for the severe/tropical side), my wife loves the weather (Sunny and hot all the time). Thanks for the feedback regarding the models, I'll be sure to keep an eye on them as we get later in the season. Have a great night!

Same thing that brought my mom and dad down here from Michigan a long time ago. My dad served as well and was stationed out of Miami Beach. Enjoy the weather and thanks for your service!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

...DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 78.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the north-central Gulf
coast from the Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of
the Mississippi River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 23.4 North, longitude 78.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the
southern portion of the Florida peninsula Monday, and move over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach the central
Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm Monday night.

Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical cyclone by Monday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...1 to 2 ft.
Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to
4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern
Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flooding. The
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central
Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be
possible Monday across portions of South Florida and the Florida
Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

There has been little change in the organization of the disturbance
since the previous advisory. Satellite imagery shows that some new
convective bands have formed to the northeast of the trough axis,
but there is still no evidence of a closed surface circulation at
this time. The initial intensity remains 25 kt, which is in
agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent surface
observations. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday to give a better
assessment of the structure and intensity of the system.

The disturbance will be moving over warm waters and within
an area of generally low vertical wind shear. These conditions
should allow gradual development of the system over the next day or
so. The global model guidance indicates that the surface trough
will sharpen and that a closed surface circulation is likely to
develop in association with the system over the Gulf of Mexico
within the next 24-36 hours. Once this occurs, the system is
expected to continue to gradually strengthen until it reaches the
north-central Gulf coast Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The
intensity guidance did not change much this cycle and neither has
the latest official forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that is centered over the
Mid-Atlantic states. On this heading, the disturbance is
expected to pass over the Florida Keys or the southern Florida
peninsula tomorrow morning, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Monday night before approaching the north-central Gulf coast late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The dynamical model guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, however, since the system is still in
the pre-genesis phase future changes regarding the exact track
and timing of the onset of hazards are possible.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in
those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this
week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall
from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 23.4N 78.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/1200Z 24.5N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 25.9N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 27.5N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 28.8N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 31.7N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0000Z 33.2N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0000Z 34.2N 95.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[NDG]

The past few minutes there appears to be a better surface vorticity getting going just SSW of Andros Island.