ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[chaser1]

Seeing the EURO and CMC showing a similar track and intensity feels like i'm living in some alternate reality LOL

[chaser1]

Confirming that alternate reality would be if Bing BOT or Google BOT actually chimed in on Florence's forecast track!!!

[PandaCitrus]

Joe Bastardi on twitter is alluding to the 1933 Norfolk/DC Hurricane.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1036424906265776129

[ScottNAtlanta]

12z ECMWF...

12z CMC...

That would be pretty bad...going up the west side of the bay...that would push a lot of water with a storm surge
With water temps in that area as high as they are, it would probably not weaken as the 1933 hurricane did

[toad strangler]

00z GFS Initialized a touch N and 2mb deeper than 18z

[chaser1]

00z GFS Initialized a touch N and 2mb deeper than 18z

Might just be an indication of a forecast run causing Florence to veer a bit more poleward (at least during the initial 96 hours?)

[toad strangler]

00z GFS slightly NW over 18z through 48 hours

[CrazyC83]

Seeing such a strong ridge there makes it hard to see a recurve...and 1933 is one that I thought of too.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS slightly NW over 18z through 48 hours

The only difference that’s not really negligible is this is moving a little bit faster this run at 96 hrs compared to 18z at 90hrs

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the ridge doesn’t capture this this run

[toad strangler]

What was a strong ridge early is melting away once again on this 00z GFS run

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the ridge doesn’t capture this this run

Breaks it down at hour 126...but enough for an escape hatch?

[toad strangler]

Looks like the ridge doesn’t capture this this run

Breaks it down at hour 126...but enough for an escape hatch?

Huge gap to the N and a seemingly easy escape at 150

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the ridge doesn’t capture this this run

Breaks it down at hour 126...but enough for an escape hatch?

Also could be the model bias of breaking down ridges to much and amplifying troughs too much, here’s the thing when all the other models have a strong ridge while the GFS doesn’t 90 out of 100 times you go with the other models especially looking at history like Sandy when all the models were landfalling in the mid Atlantic states the GFS was out to sea so when I see all the other models close to US landfall and the GFS up and out while I won’t disregard the GFS it could be up to its old tricks

[Hurricaneman]

Have a feeling the GFS ensembles will be significantly farther west than the operational based on pattern

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows the ridge starting to rebuild north of Florence sending it on a wnw path at 186

[AxaltaRacing24]

Man is it motoring right into the ridge...

[storm4u]

0z Canadian hits north carolina

[Hurricaneman]

Man is it motoring right into the ridge...

It actually isn’t, use the 500 level for steering as the GFS has this going into Bermuda and out afterwards if the 500mb map is true

[Hurricaneman]

This run is 400 to 500 miles east of the 18zGFS