ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Man is it motoring right into the ridge...

It actually isn’t, use the 500 level for steering as the GFS has this going into Bermuda and out afterwards if the 500mb map is true

I know what your saying, but we've seen this before. Usually, the systems don't turn THAT far east when there is a setup like this. I think the CMC and Euro have a better handle this time. Time will tell.

[Hurricaneman]

Man is it motoring right into the ridge...

It actually isn’t, use the 500 level for steering as the GFS has this going into Bermuda and out afterwards if the 500mb map is true

I know what your saying, but we've seen this before. Usually, the systems don't turn THAT far east when there is a setup like this. I think the CMC and Euro have a better handle this time. Time will tell.

I completely agree, the GFS seems to be on its own and when that happens it is either on to something the other models aren’t or I think in this case it may be on something

[bamajammer4eva]

Last 3 runs of Canadian for 00z 9/12 shows big change from last nights run east of Bermuda. 12z Euro closely agreed with 12z CMC and 18z GFS also wasn't too far off of them.

[LarryWx]

Ensemble runs: nearly kill it midweek before coming back weekend


1) Sunday EPS runs:
0Z: I counted 7 SE US hits with 1 FL, 1 SC, and 5 NC
12Z: Again, 7 SE US hits with 2 FL, 1 SC, 1 SC/NC scraper, 3 NC. Also, 2 Cape Cod hits after hitting or just missing the SE US

2) GEFS runs
Sunday 18Z: 1 NC and several Cape Cod
Monday 0Z: 1 NC, 1 NJ

Keep in mind that there are 2.5 times as many EPS members as GEFS members.

[CrazyC83]

00Z Euro looks like it traps Florence just off the east coast. At 216 it is between Bermuda and NC, but with a huge ridge just to the north and northwest.

[Hurricaneman]

00Z Euro looks like it traps Florence just off the east coast. At 216 it is between Bermuda and NC, but with a huge ridge just to the north and northwest.

Yep, looks like the GFS is on its own which means either it’s right and every other model is wrong or the GFS will adjust towards the other models

[Highteeld]

So. Much. Ridge.

[CrazyC83]

So. Much. Ridge.

With that pattern, it would likely stall out at that point. There's nothing to move it at all with a blocking ridge to the west and a steering ridge to the east.

[TheDreamTraveler]

For the most part it looks like its the ECMWF and the other models vs the GFS. The ridging is looking more and more consistent. Still wondering what Typhoon Jebi will do to the ridging and how the models react once it recurves in the western pacific. Or if it doesn't do anything at all. Still a lot of variables to take into account.

[bamajammer4eva]

Ends up once again in close to the same location as Canadian. This is Off topic but system approaching the islands is on a nearly due west course and could be problematic if it actually exists.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours 0-240:

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS is even more threatening than the prior 2 EPS runs:

Out of 51 members, I see a whopping 12 H hits (nearly 25% of the members) on the SE US with 6 FL, 1 FL/GA border, 2 SC, and 3 NC. The prior two runs each had 7 SE US H hits. Just a couple of days ago there were zero H hits on the US on multiple runs in a row. In addition, I see at the very least 4 sub-H hits on the SE US. This is starting to get just a little bit concerning but it is still way too early to get overly nervous as drastic changes in model consensus are still likely this far out.

[NDG]

Yeah, a good half if not more of them are pointing towards the eastern US.

[AutoPenalti]

The 0Z EPS is even more threatening than the prior 2 EPS runs:

Out of 51 members, I see a whopping 12 H hits (nearly 25% of the members) on the SE US with 6 FL, 1 FL/GA border, 2 SC, and 3 NC. The prior two runs each had 7 SE US H hits. Just a couple of days ago there were zero H hits on the US on multiple runs in a row. In addition, I see at the very least 4 sub-H hits on the SE US. This is starting to get just a little bit concerning but it is still way too early to get overly nervous as drastic changes in model consensus are still likely this far out.

But there’s been a trend though, that is certain.

[PSUHiker31]

This Euro run reminds me most of Felix in 1995. It's not often you get a hurricane threatening NC from the east.

[Sciencerocks]

This Euro run reminds me most of Felix in 1995. It's not often you get a hurricane threatening NC from the east.

yeah

[gatorcane]

00Z NAVGEM has this moving nearly due west:

[BobHarlem]

0z Canadian has a Morehead City, NC landfall. GFS Trended east from 18z though at least, still east of Bermuda and no landfall (even in Canada).

It's seems like It's been a very long time since we've seen a strong ridge riding long tracker at that high of a latitude though.

[toad strangler]

Legit fish on 06z GFS as Florence barely misses Bermuda to the E while re curving into the N Atl graveyard

[OuterBanker]

What is surprising is the agreement between the Euro and the Canadian.

Kind of like a Hatfield married a McCoy.