ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#361 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:32 am

MississippiWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Looking at cell motion.. looks like we have the "center" here. well on its way. roughly of course.
[img]https://image.ibb.co/hPawnz/ztjxykctukyfl.png[/im]


Believe it's a little further east than that, but still can't tell for sure. There is definitely noticeable turning in the lower level clouds again on satellite. Looks much better than earlier.


check both radar directions. its not east. :)
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#362 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:34 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Looking at cell motion.. looks like we have the "center" here. well on its way. roughly of course.
[img]https://image.ibb.co/hPawnz/ztjxykctukyfl.png[/im]


Believe it's a little further east than that, but still can't tell for sure. There is definitely noticeable turning in the lower level clouds again on satellite. Looks much better than earlier.


check both radar directions. its not east. :)


I have. I've seen a couple of different places where I believe it could be...just nothing certain yet.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#363 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:37 am

MississippiWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
Believe it's a little further east than that, but still can't tell for sure. There is definitely noticeable turning in the lower level clouds again on satellite. Looks much better than earlier.


check both radar directions. its not east. :)


I have. I've seen a couple of different places where I believe it could be...just nothing certain yet.


go with what is closest to the radar site :P also check velocities and draw vector lines from the two radars.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#364 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:37 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:I've got my eye on the three convective blow-ups over the past 90 minutes in the vicinity of 24N 79W. Looks to me like inflow is really picking up right now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


Yeah, I feel like that area is going to be the area to watch. It has the most spin, and the strongest convection. Even if the low level "center" is slightly further west, it will or should get pulled back into that convection.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#365 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:40 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
check both radar directions. its not east. :)


I have. I've seen a couple of different places where I believe it could be...just nothing certain yet.


go with what is closest to the radar site :P also check velocities and draw vector lines from the two radars.


It's possible. I'm not going to write off any location with a weak/developing center.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#366 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:45 am

The Euro has really backed off of the rainfall potential in the SE Texas area, with only 1-4" of rain, with Beaumont getting up to 5". All of it looks like pretty manageable rainfall amounts.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#367 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:45 am

Also take a look. the cloud lines in this case are very clear..

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

toggles the slider back and forth.. I roughly drew lines over the cloud lines that are distinct. dont go off the image below.. actually use the slider and you will see the low level curvature that matches with radar. ..

Image
Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:49 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#368 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:46 am

Clearly all the significant convection is off to it's north and east so I'm not sure we're a lot closer to having it tagged a storm yet. At least the low level structure is becoming much more identifiable though.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#369 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:50 am

chaser1 wrote:Clearly all the significant convection is off to it's north and east so I'm not sure we're a lot closer to having it tagged a storm yet. At least the low level structure is becoming much more identifiable though.


The upgrade is coming soon... :)
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#370 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:59 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Clearly all the significant convection is off to it's north and east so I'm not sure we're a lot closer to having it tagged a storm yet. At least the low level structure is becoming much more identifiable though.


The upgrade is coming soon... :)


To a T.D. perhaps, i'm thinking maybe 8:00am. I just don't see NHC going straight to T.S. any earlier then 11:00 a.m. at the earliest (but am leaning more toward evening time)
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#371 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:01 am

By the way (and obviously for our other thread), the EURO is out. Looking a tad stronger at landfall than previous.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#372 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:01 am

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Clearly all the significant convection is off to it's north and east so I'm not sure we're a lot closer to having it tagged a storm yet. At least the low level structure is becoming much more identifiable though.


The upgrade is coming soon... :)


To a T.D. perhaps, i'm thinking maybe 8:00am. I just don't see NHC going straight to T.S. any earlier then 11:00 a.m. at the earliest (but am leaning more toward evening time)


Given their verbage earlier. if they determine it is a closed circ. it will likely go straight to TS..but who knows sometimes :P

it is literally happening in front of our eyes.. those of us who are still awake lol

the lower keys are going to wake up to a little surprise. :P
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#373 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:04 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
The upgrade is coming soon... :)


To a T.D. perhaps, i'm thinking maybe 8:00am. I just don't see NHC going straight to T.S. any earlier then 11:00 a.m. at the earliest (but am leaning more toward evening time)


Given their verbage earlier. if they determine it is a closed circ. it will likely go straight to TS..but who knows sometimes :P

it is literally happening in front of our eyes.. those of us who are still awake lol


I know, right?! :lol: Plenty of time for sleep when we're dead, but tropical genesis? Who want's to miss a brand new birth!
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#374 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:05 am

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
To a T.D. perhaps, i'm thinking maybe 8:00am. I just don't see NHC going straight to T.S. any earlier then 11:00 a.m. at the earliest (but am leaning more toward evening time)


Given their verbage earlier. if they determine it is a closed circ. it will likely go straight to TS..but who knows sometimes :P

it is literally happening in front of our eyes.. those of us who are still awake lol


I know, right?! :lol: Plenty of time for sleep when we're dead, but tropical genesis? Who want's to miss a brand new birth!


This is the best part ! the most dynamical and uncertain. :P
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#375 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:09 am

Also pretty funny to watch all the shear just disappear ahead of it... all the people saying not to watch the shear analysis ( always use it and watch trends) . earlier today the shear in the SE eastern gulf was 40kts.. now almost zero..

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#376 Postby JarrodB » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Given their verbage earlier. if they determine it is a closed circ. it will likely go straight to TS..but who knows sometimes :P

it is literally happening in front of our eyes.. those of us who are still awake lol

the lower keys are going to wake up to a little surprise. :P


Happy birthday bro.

As some of you know, i am in key west. Just spotty showers, border line squalls here tonite. This evening we had those low tropical clouds. .

Just a storm in cylclogenesis passing by...we might get some strong squalls but the impact is minimal here.

Hopefully future gordo does not RI and give nola an an expected surprise.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#377 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:15 am

JarrodB wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Given their verbage earlier. if they determine it is a closed circ. it will likely go straight to TS..but who knows sometimes :P

it is literally happening in front of our eyes.. those of us who are still awake lol

the lower keys are going to wake up to a little surprise. :P


Happy birthday bro.

As some of you know, i am in key west. Just spotty showers, border line squalls here tonite. This evening we had those low tropical clouds. .

Just a storm in cylclogenesis passing by...we might get some strong squalls but the impact is minimal here.

Hopefully future gordo does not RI and give nola an an expected surprise.


Thanks Jarrod :) . yeah the keys are not going to have much more than TS gusts but still likely more than most were expecting once that east side of the sytems comes through in the morning.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#378 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:15 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Also pretty funny to watch all the shear just disappear ahead of it... all the people saying not to watch the shear analysis ( always use it and watch trends) . earlier today the shear in the SE eastern gulf was 40kts.. now almost zero..



Yeah I posted earlier that you can see it lessening ahead of its path, compared to earlier. Still not sure why I get called out for posting current conditions. I never post that I think it's going to stay like that. I always watch shear closely and sometimes you can pick up hints of a trend taking form.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#379 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:17 am

JarrodB wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Given their verbage earlier. if they determine it is a closed circ. it will likely go straight to TS..but who knows sometimes :P

it is literally happening in front of our eyes.. those of us who are still awake lol

the lower keys are going to wake up to a little surprise. :P


Happy birthday bro.

As some of you know, i am in key west. Just spotty showers, border line squalls here tonite. This evening we had those low tropical clouds. .

Just a storm in cylclogenesis passing by...we might get some strong squalls but the impact is minimal here.

Hopefully future gordo does not RI and give nola an an expected surprise.


I'm guessing all's quite on Duval at this hour? Anything left open this late?
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#380 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:20 am

Maybe I'm just really tired, but it seems to have slowed down some in the last several hours.
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