ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

The lower keys will give us an indication later this morning if indeed a closed low has formed as the coc appears it will be moving inland around Islamorada/Key Largo.

right on schedule, we are now east of the wave axis and here comes the rain

im still not seeing a defined center...give it another 12 hours

It doesn't need another 12 hours. Lol.

time will tell, they could declare a td at any time

[MississippiWx]

right on schedule, we are now east of the wave axis and here comes the rain

im still not seeing a defined center...give it another 12 hours

It doesn't need another 12 hours. Lol.

time will tell, they could declare a td at any time

I think it goes straight to tropical storm due to 40-50mph gusts that have been constantly battering SE Florida coast overnight.

[NDG]

right on schedule, we are now east of the wave axis and here comes the rain

im still not seeing a defined center...give it another 12 hours

It doesn't need another 12 hours. Lol.

time will tell, they could declare a td at any time

With the wind gusts already reported in the 45-50mph it will go straight to TS.

[MississippiWx]

The first visible frames are coming in now. We should be able to have a good look at what's going on within the next 20 minutes.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES

[RL3AO]

It doesn't need another 12 hours. Lol.

time will tell, they could declare a td at any time

With the wind gusts already reported in the 45-50mph it will go straight to TS.

Has there been any evidence of sustained winds over 30 mph much less 39 mph? The strongest wind I've found was 23 knots at Homestead.

[NDG]

BTW, some the personal wx stations in Islamorada that are now reporting light westerly winds are also reporting a pressure drop from 1014mb around midnight down to 1009mb with one reporting a pressure drop down to 1007mb.

[NDG]

time will tell, they could declare a td at any time

With the wind gusts already reported in the 45-50mph it will go straight to TS.

Has there been any evidence of sustained winds over 30 mph much less 39 mph? The strongest wind I've found was 23 knots at Homestead.

Yes earlier this morning in some of the squalls. Port Everglades.
I am sure they will see more of them as squalls continue to come in.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pegf1

[GCANE]

Actually, that ULL to the SW is pushing in very low-level moisture.
No doubt accounting for the persistent deep convection.
Small cell (circled in red) firing pretty close now to the CoC (red X).

[jlauderdal]

It doesn't need another 12 hours. Lol.

time will tell, they could declare a td at any time

With the wind gusts already reported in the 45-50mph it will go straight to TS.

i thought sustained was the criteria

[jlauderdal]

With the wind gusts already reported in the 45-50mph it will go straight to TS.

Has there been any evidence of sustained winds over 30 mph much less 39 mph? The strongest wind I've found was 23 knots at Homestead.

Yes earlier this morning in some of the squalls. Port Everglades.
I am sure they will see more of them as squalls continue to come in.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pegf1

56 kntos se of miami but these are in squalls, this isnt sustained easterly flow

[MississippiWx]

Judging by the first visible frames, this thing is closed. Still need a few more frames to make sure. Radar has been giving a big hint at it too. The north and eastern side of this is very impressive on radar.

[MississippiWx]

Has there been any evidence of sustained winds over 30 mph much less 39 mph? The strongest wind I've found was 23 knots at Homestead.

Yes earlier this morning in some of the squalls. Port Everglades.
I am sure they will see more of them as squalls continue to come in.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pegf1

56 kntos se of miami but these are in squalls, this isnt sustained easterly flow

Not too many tropical depressions have gusts to 56kts.

[jlauderdal]

Yes earlier this morning in some of the squalls. Port Everglades.
I am sure they will see more of them as squalls continue to come in.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pegf1

56 kntos se of miami but these are in squalls, this isnt sustained easterly flow

Not too many tropical depressions have gusts to 56kts.

true but florida thunderstorms do

[GCANE]

Pretty decent warm core.
Looks like GFS is missing this big time.

[NDG]

56 kntos se of miami but these are in squalls, this isnt sustained easterly flow

Not too many tropical depressions have gusts to 56kts.

true but florida thunderstorms do

But we are not talking about just a florida afternoon thunderstorm

[jlauderdal]

Yes earlier this morning in some of the squalls. Port Everglades.
I am sure they will see more of them as squalls continue to come in.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pegf1

56 kntos se of miami but these are in squalls, this isnt sustained easterly flow

Not too many tropical depressions have gusts to 56kts.

the classification system at nhc use sustained not gusts

Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYC

[kevin mathis]

Looking at the 8 am advisory, looks like they relocated the center from SE of Marathon(5am) to basically Biscayne Bay or far Upper Keys. This would be very close to the firing thunderstorms.

[MississippiWx]

56 kntos se of miami but these are in squalls, this isnt sustained easterly flow

Not too many tropical depressions have gusts to 56kts.

the classification system at nhc use sustained not gusts

Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYC

Yes, but a lot of the time if there are gusts 40-50kts, they reason to believe there are sustained winds at least 39mph.

[GCANE]

Deep pink, good rain rate.
Not shabby at all.
That CAPE ridge is deepening quickly in the east GOM