ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#461 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:55 am

12z best track, they agree with the coc I have been tracking all morning long, now lets see if visible sat loop confirms any westerly winds.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


Image
Last edited by NDG on Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#462 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:59 am

Not much reach with the developing precipitation structure. Hardly anything N of Palm Beach County.
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#463 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:01 am

MississippiWx wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
Not too many tropical depressions have gusts to 56kts.


the classification system at nhc use sustained not gusts

Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYC


Yes, but a lot of the time if there are gusts 40-50kts, they reason to believe there are sustained winds at least 39mph.
there are no sustained winds reported that meet the criteria...give it some time but nothing there now
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2108
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#464 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:04 am

These small storms are prone to rapid swings in intensity, but a lot less general momentum for storm surge than the big ones.
1 likes   

shiny-pebble
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#465 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:06 am

Now TS Gordon.

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
-Jack 8-)

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#466 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:07 am

toad strangler wrote:Not much reach with the developing precipitation structure. Hardly anything N of Palm Beach County.
its on the move, give it a few hours bu it appears to be a dade-broward rain event, even the keys is lacking in rain, forecast has been good as this was expected with the action on the east and north side of the axis
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#467 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:07 am

toad strangler wrote:Not much reach with the developing precipitation structure. Hardly anything N of Palm Beach County.


It's slowly rotating north (as well as more developing to the east), but I doubt there will be as much up our way as South Florida is getting.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145313
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Advisories

#468 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:07 am

Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS...

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and radar data indicate
that Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven has become Tropical Storm
Gordon, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). A
Tropical Storm Warning will be issued shortly for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula in a forthcoming
special advisory to be issued by 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 805 AM EDT...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Stewart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#469 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:09 am

shiny-pebble wrote:Now TS Gordon.

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk


Yep. We have a 45mph tropical storm already. That does not bode well for those in the Northern Gulf.
1 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145313
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#470 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:09 am

Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS...

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and radar data indicate
that Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven has become Tropical Storm
Gordon, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). A
Tropical Storm Warning will be issued shortly for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula in a forthcoming
special advisory to be issued by 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 805 AM EDT...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Stewart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2108
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#471 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:09 am

Special Advisory we have Gordon, warnings up for Keys & S. Florida.
1 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#472 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:11 am

BobHarlem wrote:These small storms are prone to rapid swings in intensity, but a lot less general momentum for storm surge than the big ones.


yeah, and unless something drastic happens, like the HWRF were to come to fruition, surge expected with this system is only 2-4 feet... might impact low lying areas of Hancock county but the rest of the MS coast should do just fine... unless things change big time, and you never really know what they will ultimately do, perfect storm for me to sit on the front porch and enjoy the show...
1 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#473 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:14 am

For some perspective, Gordon wasn't supposed to be a 45mph tropical storm for another 30-36 hours.
2 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
kevin mathis
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 56
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:39 pm
Location: Tampa Bay

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#474 Postby kevin mathis » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:14 am

Looks like the center is overland Everglades. Using radar looping as the trajectory, it should emerge over the SE Gulf in a few hours in the Everglades City/ Marco Island area...
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#475 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:15 am

MississippiWx wrote:For some perspective, Gordon wasn't supposed to be a 45mph tropical storm for another 30-36 hours.


To be honest if you had a high density surface observation network (like in South Florida), you could find TS winds in almost any cluster of thunderstorms in the tropics. It's not really any more organized than it was six hours ago.
3 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#476 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:16 am

jlauderdal wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
the classification system at nhc use sustained not gusts

Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYC


Yes, but a lot of the time if there are gusts 40-50kts, they reason to believe there are sustained winds at least 39mph.
there are no sustained winds reported that meet the criteria...give it some time but nothing there now


We were correct all along.
0 likes   

SootyTern
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 316
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: NYC (formerly Homestead, FL)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#477 Postby SootyTern » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:18 am

TS genesis pretty much right over my house! Cool beans!
4 likes   
Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gulf Coast: Opal '95 Georges '98 / So Fla: Katrina '05 Wilma '05 Irma '17

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#478 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:19 am

SootyTern wrote:TS genesis pretty much right over my house! Cool beans!


I see that you guys are getting some fairly squally gusty wx right now, the COC is just to your south.
0 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#479 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:19 am

RL3AO wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:For some perspective, Gordon wasn't supposed to be a 45mph tropical storm for another 30-36 hours.


To be honest if you had a high density surface observation network (like in South Florida), you could find TS winds in almost any cluster of thunderstorms in the tropics. It's not really any more organized than it was six hours ago.


Going to have to disagree with you there. I was watching this 6 hours ago. The radar presentation is vastly different and much better organized. This looks like a strengthening system on radar and satellite.
4 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

hipshot
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#480 Postby hipshot » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:20 am

chaser1 wrote:Potential Tropical Cyclone 7.... brought to you by "fans of the orange and blue" - go Gators! :cheesy:

On a more serious note, anyone see what I see????

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined


Are you looking at the system south of Cuba below GORDON?
1 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests