ATL: GORDON - Models

SoupBone · #61 Postby **SoupBone** » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:56 pm

MississippiWx wrote:0z GFS still unimpressed. Not even sure it truly develops this into a tropical cyclone at all.

I'm only looking at it on TropicalTidbits, but I can't even find it a few times. :lol:

#62 Postby **MississippiWx** » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:58 pm

SoupBone wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:0z GFS still unimpressed. Not even sure it truly develops this into a tropical cyclone at all.

I'm only looking at it on TropicalTidbits, but I can't even find it a few times.

If it struggles late into tomorrow to close off a circulation, the GFS will be probably be right.

#63 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:12 am

0z HWRF and HMON models pretty realistic with strong tropical storm landfall around Louisiana/MS border.

#64 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:15 am

MississippiWx wrote:0z HWRF and HMON models pretty realistic with strong tropical storm landfall around Louisiana/MS border.

HWRF also whips Florida, as far north as Tampa. Spends some time inland over the Everglades, and draws spiral bands into the state.

#65 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:36 am

MississippiWx wrote:0z HWRF and HMON models pretty realistic with strong tropical storm landfall around Louisiana/MS border.

Agree, but actually the HWRF actually goes inland at Ocean Springs... since this is such a small system don't expect much weather west of the center... split the difference I'd say between the Pass and Long Beach/GPT...

#66 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:40 am

Frank P wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:0z HWRF and HMON models pretty realistic with strong tropical storm landfall around Louisiana/MS border.

Agree, but actually the HWRF actually goes inland at Ocean Springs... since this is such a small system don't expect much weather west of the center... split the difference I'd say between the Pass and Long Beach/GPT...

Don't forget that as much as the Euro has been left biased the GFS along with the HWRF have been right biased.

#67 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:41 am

HWRF running now, at h9 south (~30-40 miles) and stronger than previous run... 06Z 1005 mb, vs 0Z 1011 mb

#68 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:44 am

h18, close to previous run, a tad more south.. 1 mb difference, wind field looks bigger

Nimbus · #69 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:50 am

Look for 90 degrees here.
Models need initializing.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=LONF1

#70 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:51 am

h24 stronger 997mb vs 1004mb, a tad south...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=24

#71 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:54 am

ha, h30 bombing 982mb vs previous run of 1000 mb,
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=30

#72 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:04 am

h36 976 mb, heading towards MS/AL line? TBD
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=33

#73 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:08 am

Landfall Harrison County.

#74 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:09 am

36 hrs out.

Really good moisture infeed.

Anticyclone to its west, remains of the W GOM convection firing this weekend.

Need to keep an eye on the large Theta-E Ridge in the west GOM.
If it expands east, the LL vort could track into and convection could blow up.
Pretty high CAPE air then to its SE and may entrain it if pressure drops quickly.

#75 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:10 am

h45, 974 mb going inland at GPT/BIL..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=45

caneman · #76 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:10 am

Frank P wrote:h45, 974 mb going inland at GPT/BIL..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=45

That run was likely based on a further south initialization I believe. Not sure if downrange it would go more East say Fl/Bama line or not

#77 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:21 am

caneman wrote:
Frank P wrote:h45, 974 mb going inland at GPT/BIL..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=45

That run was likely based on a further south initialization I believe. Not sure if downrange it would go more East say Fl/Bama line or not

I don't recall seeing any models that far east yet, but that's not to say it won't happen... be surprised though, I think the ridge is pretty set but lets see down the road... they always surprise us down the road..

#78 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:29 am

Frank P wrote:
caneman wrote:
Frank P wrote:h45, 974 mb going inland at GPT/BIL..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=45

That run was likely based on a further south initialization I believe. Not sure if downrange it would go more East say Fl/Bama line or not

I don't recall seeing any models that far east yet, but that's not to say it won't happen... be surprised though, I think the ridge is pretty set but lets see down the road... they always surprise us down the road..

Caneman, wouldn't it be a shocker if the HWRF run came to fruition... be interesting if this continues to develop once in the GOM, or it just maintains what it has until it gets closer to the coast... going be interesting or perhaps boring... all TBD...

caneman · #79 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:53 am

Definite more Northerly than yesterday. MS. / Alabama seems likely to me. I'm guessing 70 mph at landfall. Moving fast so shouldn't be bad in terms of surge or rainfall

Javlin · #80 Postby **Javlin** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:56 am

06Z HWRF has Gordon @80knts up 15knts from the 0Z output.

ATL: GORDON - Models

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