ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[mlfreeman]

:uarrow: Yeah, a good half if not more of them are pointing towards the eastern US.

One of those ensembles ends with a cat 2 maybe 15 miles north of me.

[TheStormExpert]

I hope I don't cause more west trends, but this reminds me a bit of the early days of Irma which originally was being shown by models to recurve near the U.S. East Coast or hit the Carolinas. Anyone else remember that?

[NDG]

:uarrow: Yeah, a good half if not more of them are pointing towards the eastern US.

https://i.imgur.com/O80sA8Y.png

One of those ensembles ends with a cat 2 maybe 15 miles north of me.

Lets just hope the Euro is just being left biased as it has been many times, just a hope.

[TheStormExpert]

Joe B. has been referencing the 1933 Chesapeake–Potomac Hurricane as a potential analog storm with the recent Euro runs.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Chesapeake–Potomac_hurricane[/url]

[gatorcane]

I hope I don't cause more west trends, but this reminds me a bit of the early days of Irma which originally was being shown by models to recurve near the U.S. East Coast or hit the Carolinas. Anyone else remember that?

Irma had the WSW dip before islands but this storm shouldn’t do that. Still, by no means is Florida in the clear. The discussion about mid-Atlantic threat assumes 10 day model runs will verify which is not likely considering models have shifted over a 1000 miles the past few days. Six EPS ensembles send this towards Florida now.

[RL3AO]

Euro trending north



GFS trending south



Maybe the answer is they meet in the middle.

[BobHarlem]

@RaleighWx

The 12z intensity guidance shows shear increasing to 20-25 knots from hour 36-120. This could/should result in #Florence weakening starting tomorrow.

[lando]

:uarrow: Yeah, a good half if not more of them are pointing towards the eastern US.

Great pic!!
That cat 3 going into headon into Jacksonville would cause historic flooding and be very bad

[tolakram]

Keep in mind this is very long range and the odds of the models picking the correct location is slim to none.

End of the 0Z Euro run.

[toad strangler]

Keep in mind this is very long range and the odds of the models picking the correct location is slim to none.

End of the 0Z Euro run.

OT a bit but you are so right...... EXCEPT last year the GFS had an early 360 hour run that ended up nailing landfall location of TS Alberto lol I have an image saved of that if anybody wants a chuckle

[SFLcane]

Um...not liking the look of these EPS members shifting westward

[chris_fit]

Um...not liking the look of these EPS members shifting westward

[img]https://imghst.gpsfiledepot.com/1535985494.jpg/img]

Some of those actually nudge S of W a bit - yikes

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Keep in mind this is very long range and the odds of the models picking the correct location is slim to none.

End of the 0Z Euro run.

OT a bit but you are so right...... EXCEPT last year the GFS had an early 360 hour run that ended up nailing landfall location of TS Alberto lol I have an image saved of that if anybody wants a chuckle

Wait... Alberto was last year?

[plasticup]

Keep in mind this is very long range and the odds of the models picking the correct location is slim to none.

End of the 0Z Euro run.

Maybe not that exact spot, but the ridge does look like it is setting up for a CONUS landfall. More than it was a week ago, anyway

[toad strangler]

OT a bit but you are so right...... EXCEPT last year the GFS had an early 360 hour run that ended up nailing landfall location of TS Alberto lol I have an image saved of that if anybody wants a chuckle

Wait... Alberto was last year?

LOL my bad.... it felt like it. True story on 360 hr GFS map though. Nailed it.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12Z GFS takes Florence down to <984mb in just 18 hours. Considering Florence already looks like she's ready to become a naked swirl by the evening again, I just don't think that's likely.

[ColdMiser123]

Some short term deepening on the new UKMET, but the GFS remains an extreme outlier intensity wise over the next several days. UKMET ends with a WNW bearing.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 38.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2018 0 18.3N 38.1W 994 49
0000UTC 04.09.2018 12 18.6N 40.6W 991 58
1200UTC 04.09.2018 24 19.1N 42.9W 991 54
0000UTC 05.09.2018 36 19.8N 45.0W 993 56
1200UTC 05.09.2018 48 20.6N 47.5W 1000 45
0000UTC 06.09.2018 60 21.5N 49.9W 1004 41
1200UTC 06.09.2018 72 22.5N 52.2W 1005 43
0000UTC 07.09.2018 84 23.2N 54.4W 1007 39
1200UTC 07.09.2018 96 23.8N 56.3W 1007 36
0000UTC 08.09.2018 108 24.4N 57.9W 1006 36
1200UTC 08.09.2018 120 24.9N 59.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 09.09.2018 132 25.1N 60.1W 1003 36
1200UTC 09.09.2018 144 25.4N 60.9W 1003 40

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is even farther east with the recurve, either the GFS is pure trash or the other models are completely wrong but in the past when the GFS was on its own it was trash

[ColdMiser123]

Canadian landfalls over Nantucket. GFS is well east.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS somehow believing this will strengthen to a Cat 2 in 18 hours.