ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Rather poorly-organized with a center that's hard to pick out in the surface obs, but I did see a buoy report of 35 kts in a squall. Stewart is generally the most agressive forecaster at the NHC for upgrading systems. Regardless, it could produce some TS winds at least in squalls over south FL today. Lots of shear in its path across the Gulf. NHC may be a bit high on the wind forecast (50 kts). Mostly a rain event for LA/MS.

[MississippiWx]

The track is definitely north...any bets they move warnings easr?

Many of the models that developed this, particularly the hurricane models and the mesoscale models, showed this temporary northern movement before resuming course. We will see if that's what is happening or if a true eastern nudge is happening.

[JarrodB]

Overcast...but fair weather this morning in key west. We might see a rain band or two later but so far all the heavy stuff is north.

You are on the weak side of the storm.

Obviously...

I am a bit surprised that the ccl formed thatbfar north.

This afternoon we might get some squally weather.

[RL3AO]

Rather poorly-organized with a center that's hard to pick out in the surface obs, but I did see a buoy report of 35 kts in a squall. Stewart is generally the most agressive forecaster at the NHC for upgrading systems. Regardless, it could produce some TS winds at least in squalls over south FL today. Lots of shear in its path across the Gulf. NHC may be a bit high on the wind forecast (50 kts). Mostly a rain event for LA/MS.

I agree. The idea that since it is 15 knots stronger now that means it will be 15 knots stronger in two days is poorly reasoned. It's a lopsided "tropical storm" that is benefiting from a dense surface/buoy network and probably wouldn't even be a TD yet in most parts of the basin.

[Ivanhater]

The track is definitely north...any bets they move warnings easr?

Many of the models that developed this, particularly the hurricane models and the mesoscale models, showed this temporary northern movement before resuming course. We will see if that's what is happening or if a true eastern nudge is happening.

Track last night was middle keys...this is going over mainland Florida.

[Emmett_Brown]

You can really see the organization trend, and the more concentrated convection on this vis sat loop: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[drezee]

Rather poorly-organized with a center that's hard to pick out in the surface obs, but I did see a buoy report of 35 kts in a squall. Stewart is generally the most agressive forecaster at the NHC for upgrading systems. Regardless, it could produce some TS winds at least in squalls over south FL today. Lots of shear in its path across the Gulf. NHC may be a bit high on the wind forecast (50 kts). Mostly a rain event for LA/MS.

I agree. The idea that since it is 15 knots stronger now that means it will be 15 knots stronger in two days is poorly reasoned. It's a lopsided "tropical storm" that is benefiting from a dense surface/buoy network and probably wouldn't even be a TD yet in most parts of the basin.

Really also depends on how much convection forms near TX / LA today. It induced the shear but that is transient without the continued convection.

[NDG]

Nice cyclonic bands have developed, is amazing the magic the gulf stream does.

[Frank P]

gotta love it when the pro mets come on board with posts that busts a lot of balloons... mine included... haha

[MississippiWx]

Rather poorly-organized with a center that's hard to pick out in the surface obs, but I did see a buoy report of 35 kts in a squall. Stewart is generally the most agressive forecaster at the NHC for upgrading systems. Regardless, it could produce some TS winds at least in squalls over south FL today. Lots of shear in its path across the Gulf. NHC may be a bit high on the wind forecast (50 kts). Mostly a rain event for LA/MS.

The same shear that models have constantly showed in front of this system that has never really panned out? The cirrus outflow is currently the best I've seen it with this storm.

While I agree the low level winds are still lacking on the south side a bit, I'm not so sure close to the center where it appears a rather vigorous vort max formed. Easterly trades have been battling the south side for some time. Thus, the convergence band extending to the southwest.

I just don't see shear being as much of a detriment as a lot have claimed. Conditions in the Gulf are supposed to improve gradually too.

But anyway, you're the pro, and more than likely correct.

[TheAustinMan]

The westerly wind component of the circulation is probably limited to the Everglades and a small portion of Florida Bay. Down by the Keys the circulation slackens and resembles more like a tropical wave. But the storm is certainly developing banding and might see its circulation expand once it hits the Gulf.

454kB. Source: Screenshot of GR2Analyst

[NDG]

Rather poorly-organized with a center that's hard to pick out in the surface obs, but I did see a buoy report of 35 kts in a squall. Stewart is generally the most agressive forecaster at the NHC for upgrading systems. Regardless, it could produce some TS winds at least in squalls over south FL today. Lots of shear in its path across the Gulf. NHC may be a bit high on the wind forecast (50 kts). Mostly a rain event for LA/MS.

Ft Lauderdale airport reported a wind gust of 48 mph a few minutes ago, so I am sure there are higher winds offshore.


Conditions at: KFLL observed 03 September 2018 12:20 UTC
Temperature: 25.6°C (78°F)
Dewpoint: 24.4°C (76°F) [RH = 93%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.00 inches Hg (1016.0 mb)
Winds: from the ESE (110 degrees) at 34 MPH (30 knots; 15.6 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.50 miles (2.41 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

[Ivanhater]

Clearly a strengthening storm over south Florida

[tolakram]

The LLC, such that it is, looks to be over the keys and not the mainland.

[NDG]

gotta love it when the pro mets come on board with posts that busts a lot of balloons... mine included... haha

They're just on a holiday mood

[BobHarlem]

You can see Stewart himself explain why they upgraded in this video from NHC from a few minutes ago.

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/videos/ ... 213156109/

[JarrodB]

I just don't see shear being as much of a detriment as a lot have claimed. Conditions in the Gulf are supposed to improve gradually too.
:

The shear is pretty obvious on the satellite. If the system was not moving so fast, it could give the shear ahead of Gordon time to weaken.

Right now it is steaming toward an area of shear in the GoM.

[GCANE]

gotta love it when the pro mets come on board with posts that busts a lot of balloons... mine included... haha

They're just on a holiday mood

Outflow is clear pushing out the shear to his west.
East GOM is juiced.
Very likely this will ramp a couple hours after it hits the water.

[RL3AO]

The LLC, such that it is, looks to be over the keys and not the mainland.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/E4deRUe.png[]

I think that's a little off (at least the orange streamlines on the image). The surface center looks to be over the upper keys and just off the extreme southern tip of mainland Florida.

[tolakram]

The LLC, such that it is, looks to be over the keys and not the mainland.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/E4deRUe.png[]

I think that's a little off (at least the orange streamlines on the image). The surface center looks to be over the upper keys and just off the extreme southern tip of mainland Florida.

I can't tell where weather underground gets that data so I suspect you are right. What's interesting it that since I posted it there are now 2 circulation centers.